Sector Pulse
Sector Pulse
Where we stand, sector by sector.
Where we are positive and where we are cautious, built from every take we have published. Click a sector to open its full report.
The heat map
How each sector reads.
Average sentiment of our takes per sector. The arrow shows the last three months against the period before.
Sector by sector
Open a full sector report.
Each sector has its own one-page report: our read, the trend, themes, changes of view and every company we cover.
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
Companies where our latest take moved at least two steps from the one before.
- SalzgitterMaterials & chemicalsNegative → PositiveThird guidance raise as EU protection and cost savings work.Latest take →
- SMA SolarEnergy & utilitiesVery negative → PositiveBack to profit with strong cash flow and raised guidance.Latest take →
- CSGAerospace & defenceNeutral → Very negativeSurprise margin cut as ammunition prices fall; trust damaged.Latest take →
- Merck KGaAHealthcareVery positive → NeutralElectronics and bioprocessing upgrade guidance, offsetting healthcare patent losses.Latest take →
- JungheinrichIndustrialsNegative → PositiveLower 2030 targets look more credible, with warehouse automation a promising profit driver.Latest take →
- RheinmetallAerospace & defencePositive → NegativeOrders are strong, but lowered targets and delayed acceptance mean execution must be rebuilt.Latest take →
- Swiss ReFinancialsPositive → NegativeStrong current profits rest on reserve releases, while new business shrinks in a softer market.Latest take →
- EvotecHealthcareVery negative → NeutralVertex deal anchors biologics, but lumpy income and a production pause keep growth uncertain.Latest take →
Themes
Stories that cut across sectors.
Stories that cut across sectors, with the average tone of the takes that mention them. Bars show the share of positive, neutral and negative takes.
51 takes, mostly in Semis & hardware, Software & internet, Industrials.
74 takes, mostly in Healthcare, Industrials, Software & internet.
20 takes, mostly in Aerospace & defence, Industrials.
43 takes, mostly in Industrials, Energy & utilities, Autos & mobility.
19 takes, mostly in Autos & mobility, Food, drinks & retail, Healthcare.
34 takes, mostly in Autos & mobility, Healthcare, Aerospace & defence.
Sector report
Travel, transport & leisure, leaning positive.
51 takes on 25 companies, 52% positive and 9% negative.
The short version.
- Our most positive sector overall, though airlines are a weak spot.
- Asset-light compounders lead: ID Logistics, DO & CO, Compagnie des Alpes.
- Gaming and leisure keep growing (Cirsa, TUI, Voyageurs du Monde).
- Airlines and airports face high fuel costs and slowing traffic.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Asset-light compounders, not airlines.
Travel, transport and leisure is our most positive sector, with an average of 3.67, 52% positive takes and only 9% negative. That may seem surprising in a year when the war involving Iran disrupted Middle Eastern airspace, pushed up jet fuel prices and hurt tourism. The explanation is what we cover. Our favourite companies here are not airlines but logistics, catering, leisure and gaming businesses with strong positions and steady growth. Where we do cover airlines and airports, our view is much more cautious.
Where we are positive
ID Logistics is our most consistently positive call: rapid growth, especially in North America, rising margins and investment tied to signed contracts. DO & CO's premium catering keeps delivering growth and becoming less cyclical. Compagnie des Alpes grows steadily from ski resorts and leisure parks at a modest valuation, and Voyageurs du Monde combines resilient growth with a strong balance sheet. Cirsa's merger with Lottomatica creates a large gaming group with digital capabilities and €115m of synergies. TUI has largely finished restructuring and pays dividends again. InPost built a strong parcel locker network before its take-private and its deal with Allegro. GL Events and Getlink are steady performers.
Where we are cautious
Airlines face a difficult 2027. Most European carriers hedge little of their fuel, and Ryanair says it is 85% unhedged for next year. Its CEO expects European fares to rise by up to 20%, but doubts this will fully cover the higher oil bill. Ryanair's shares are down about 25% this year. Consolidation is speeding up: Lufthansa beat Air France-KLM to a stake in TAP, and Apollo is preparing to take over easyJet, which we flagged as undervalued in June. Airports are seeing slower traffic and cost pressure: Flughafen Wien has turned defensive, and Fraport's recovery is clouded by accounting effects. Whitbread's Premier Inn keeps gaining share, but rising costs squeeze profits. Amadeus's growth depends on air travel holding up.
What the numbers say
The sector average dipped to 3.38 in the first half of 2026 as the Middle East conflict hit travel, and recovered to about 3.7 in the second half. Our view rests on asset-light compounders with their own growth drivers. We would be more cautious if fuel costs stay high and start to weigh on consumer travel budgets in 2027.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- Voyageurs du MondeResilient growth and pristine balance sheet; stock looks undervalued.
- InterContinental HotelsStrong 2024, big buyback, and a confident outlook; high-quality play.
- Cirsa EnterprisesWorld Cup customers retain well; solid cash outlook ahead of the Lottomatica merger.
- ID LogisticsExceptional growth driven by North America and new contracts; start-up costs weigh on margins.
- WhitbreadPremier Inn keeps gaining share, but restructuring and rising costs squeeze profits.
- SRP GroupeManaged contraction of a shrinking core, with a reset to simplify.
- TFF GroupCyclical wine and spirits downturn; protecting margins while awaiting recovery.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Takeovers and break-ups6 takes3.50
- Valuation looks cheap2 takes4.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- WhitbreadTravel, transport & leisurePositive → NegativePremier Inn keeps gaining share, but restructuring and rising costs squeeze profits.Latest take →
- CarvolixTravel, transport & leisureVery positive → NeutralSeveral regulatory milestones ahead, with funding reaching the first key event.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 5 Nov 2026Cirsa EnterprisesWorld Cup customers retain well; solid cash outlook ahead of the Lottomatica merger.
- 22 Oct 2026ID LogisticsExceptional growth driven by North America and new contracts; start-up costs weigh on margins.
- 15 Oct 2026LufthansaTAP stake offers strong South America access, but the price leaves little room for disappointment.
- 13 Oct 2026WhitbreadPremier Inn keeps gaining share, but restructuring and rising costs squeeze profits.
- 1 Oct 2026CarvolixSeveral regulatory milestones ahead, with funding reaching the first key event.
- 3 Sep 2026Cirsa EnterprisesLottomatica merger creates scale, digital capability and €115m synergies.
- 27 Aug 2026Flughafen WienCost control protects earnings despite falling passengers; structural tax constrains growth.
- 27 Aug 2026ID LogisticsRapid growth and margin gains, with capex tied largely to signed contracts.
The companies
Every company we cover in Travel, transport & leisure.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AenaAENA | Spain | 1 | Positive | 23 Sep 2025 | Ambitious capex plan; regulatory negotiations will shape returns, but fundamentals look solid. |
| Air France-KLMAF | France | 1 | Neutral | 9 Jun 2026 | Interesting to watch, but Air France shouldn't rush into an easyJet deal. |
| CarnivalCCL | UK | 1 | Neutral | 30 Sep 2025 | Solid results, but few catalysts; recovery now seen as mature. |
| CarvolixCVX | France | 2 | Neutral | 1 Oct 2026 | Several regulatory milestones ahead, with funding reaching the first key event. |
| Cirsa EnterprisesCIRSA | Spain | 4 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | World Cup customers retain well; solid cash outlook ahead of the Lottomatica merger. |
| Compagnie des AlpesCDA | France | 2 | Positive | 29 Jan 2026 | Steady momentum and a compounding model at a reasonable valuation. |
| DO & CODOC | Austria | 2 | Positive | 2 Jul 2026 | Premium positioning keeps lifting margins; the outlook points to further expansion. |
| easyJetEZJ | UK | 2 | Positive | 2 Jun 2026 | Takeover interest highlights undervaluation, though a deal is uncertain. |
| Flughafen WienFLU | Austria | 4 | Neutral | 27 Aug 2026 | Cost control protects earnings despite falling passengers; structural tax constrains growth. |
| FraportFRA | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 16 Dec 2025 | Dividend restart signals recovery, but accounting drag clouds 2026; risk-reward balanced. |
| GetlinkGET | France | 1 | Positive | 21 Oct 2025 | Steady, predictable infrastructure play with quiet strength. |
| GL EventsGLO | France | 2 | Positive | 16 Oct 2025 | Weak quarter seen as timing; strong Q4 and undemanding valuation with high yield. |
| HBX GroupHBX | Spain | 2 | Neutral | 23 Jun 2026 | Tough year, but easier comparisons and fiscal 2027 offer recovery potential. |
| ID LogisticsIDL | France | 4 | Positive | 22 Oct 2026 | Exceptional growth driven by North America and new contracts; start-up costs weigh on margins. |
| InPostINPST | Poland | 4 | Neutral | 10 Feb 2026 | Conservative price, but completion looks likely given locked-up shareholder support. |
| InterContinental HotelsIHG | UK | 1 | Very positive | 19 Feb 2025 | Strong 2024, big buyback, and a confident outlook; high-quality play. |
| LufthansaLHA | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 15 Oct 2026 | TAP stake offers strong South America access, but the price leaves little room for disappointment. |
| Pierre & VacancesVAC | France | 2 | Neutral | 23 Jun 2026 | Mubadala's offer validates the turnaround, though upside looks limited. |
| RyanairRYA | Ireland | 2 | Neutral | 27 Jan 2026 | Cost control drove the beat; guidance stays measured, not exuberant. |
| SRP GroupeSRP | France | 1 | Negative | 27 Jan 2026 | Managed contraction of a shrinking core, with a reset to simplify. |
| STEFSTF | France | 1 | Neutral | 9 Sep 2025 | Messy half from one-offs; core engine and investment case intact. |
| TFF GroupTFF | France | 1 | Negative | 13 Jan 2026 | Cyclical wine and spirits downturn; protecting margins while awaiting recovery. |
| TUITUI1 | Germany | 4 | Neutral | 10 Feb 2026 | Solid winter execution; margin focus protects earnings as volumes soften. |
| Voyageurs du MondeALVDM | France | 1 | Very positive | 9 Oct 2025 | Resilient growth and pristine balance sheet; stock looks undervalued. |
| WhitbreadWTB | UK | 3 | Negative | 13 Oct 2026 | Premier Inn keeps gaining share, but restructuring and rising costs squeeze profits. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Aerospace & defence, leaning positive.
69 takes on 22 companies, 49% positive and 10% negative.
The short version.
- Second most positive sector, and improving in recent months.
- Civil aerospace suppliers are our quiet favourites: MTU, Safran, Figeac, FACC.
- Defence demand is real, but delivery is now the test (Rheinmetall, CSG).
- Smaller defence names (Vincorion, RENK, Exail) look better value than the leaders.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Suppliers over primes, and civil aerospace over crowded defence trades.
Aerospace and defence is our second most positive sector, and our view has improved through the second half of 2026. But the mood has changed. In 2025 the question was how much European governments would spend. Now it is whether companies can turn record order books into deliveries and cash. Rheinmetall shows the gap: on 5 November it reported a record backlog of about €78bn and, in the same release, cut its 2026 sales forecast for the second time in three months because Berlin did not award the Boxer programme this year. The shares fell more than 16% that day. Leonardo, in contrast, passed €60bn of backlog for the first time and raised its order target. Money is still flowing (the EU has reopened €21.3bn of SAFE defence loans), but investors now pay for execution, not for headlines.
Where we are positive
Our most consistent positives are on the civil side. MTU, Safran and the wide-body suppliers benefit from an engine aftermarket that keeps surprising: old CFM56 and V2500 engines are flying longer, and every shop visit is high-margin work. Safran's aftermarket looks set to extend the earnings cycle well beyond what the market assumed. Further down the chain, Figeac Aero, FACC and Montana Aerospace are rebuilding margins as Airbus ramps up, and they trade at undemanding multiples. In defence, we prefer smaller, focused names where growth is visible and valuations are lower: Vincorion (40% growth and a €1.2bn backlog), RENK (record orders, shares too cheap for the growth), and Exail. Thales and Leonardo also score well, helped by defence electronics, which grows faster and earns more than vehicles or ammunition.
Where we are cautious
The negatives are about delivery and price, not demand. CSG cut its margin target as ammunition prices fall, which tells us the shortage premium of 2023 to 2025 is fading as new capacity comes online. Rheinmetall's lowered targets and delayed acceptance mean credibility must be rebuilt one quarter at a time. Airbus itself is a recurring 'three': demand is not the issue, but engine and supplier bottlenecks make every year-end delivery target a close call, and that risk runs through the whole supply chain. Hensoldt and TKMS are good businesses, but their valuations leave little room for a slower year.
What the numbers say
Almost half of our 69 takes are positive and only one in ten is negative. The sector average dipped in the first half of 2026 as the defence leaders stumbled, then recovered as the supply chain names reported strong third quarters. Our main changes of view were downgrades at CSG and Rheinmetall and upgrades at MTU. The pattern is clear: we like the suppliers more than the primes, and civil aerospace more than the most crowded defence trades.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- RENKRecord orders and backlog; shares look too cheap for their earnings growth.
- LISIAerospace-driven growth and automation make LISI a rare earnings-visibility industrial.
- Exail TechnologiesDynamic defence-tech grower with building momentum and a large order book.
- Vincorion40% growth and big backlog; rescue hoist delay is minor.
- CSGSurprise margin cut as ammunition prices fall; trust damaged.
- RheinmetallOrders are strong, but lowered targets and delayed acceptance mean execution must be rebuilt.
- VogoTransition pains; financial trajectory may force lower expectations.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Defence spending16 takes3.81
- Valuation looks cheap5 takes4.00
- Takeovers and break-ups4 takes3.00
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts3 takes3.00
- Energy transition3 takes5.00
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- CSGAerospace & defenceNeutral → Very negativeSurprise margin cut as ammunition prices fall; trust damaged.Latest take →
- RheinmetallAerospace & defencePositive → NegativeOrders are strong, but lowered targets and delayed acceptance mean execution must be rebuilt.Latest take →
- RENKAerospace & defenceNeutral → Very positiveRecord orders and backlog; shares look too cheap for their earnings growth.Latest take →
- SafranAerospace & defenceVery positive → NeutralHigher capex complicates an otherwise strong outlook, with airline demand adding uncertainty.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026Vincorion40% growth and big backlog; rescue hoist delay is minor.
- 12 Nov 2026FACCMargin recovery real; fourth quarter is the key test.
- 12 Nov 2026Rolls-RoyceSolid update and Power Systems boom, but shares no longer cheap.
- 12 Nov 2026CSGSurprise margin cut as ammunition prices fall; trust damaged.
- 12 Nov 2026Montana AerospaceAerostructures strong, space upside, but big fourth quarter needed.
- 10 Nov 2026TheonDiversifying beyond night vision is working, but cash and orders remain the weak spots.
- 10 Nov 2026RheinmetallOrders are strong, but lowered targets and delayed acceptance mean execution must be rebuilt.
- 5 Nov 2026RENKRecord orders and backlog; shares look too cheap for their earnings growth.
The companies
Every company we cover in Aerospace & defence.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AirbusAIR | France | 4 | Neutral | 29 Oct 2026 | Shares are attractive if the Q4 delivery ramp-up meets targets, though execution risk remains. |
| BAE SystemsBA | UK | 1 | Neutral | 19 Feb 2025 | Solid results, but cautious 2025 guidance raises concerns; fairly priced. |
| CSGCSG | Netherlands | 2 | Very negative | 12 Nov 2026 | Surprise margin cut as ammunition prices fall; trust damaged. |
| Dassault AviationAM | France | 1 | Positive | 16 Sep 2025 | Potential India Rafale deal could be transformative; Falcon business still lags. |
| Exail TechnologiesEXA | France | 2 | Very positive | 23 Oct 2025 | Dynamic defence-tech grower with building momentum and a large order book. |
| FACCFACC | Austria | 4 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Margin recovery real; fourth quarter is the key test. |
| Figeac AeroFGA | France | 6 | Positive | 3 Sep 2026 | Strong backlog and production ramp; execution inside factories now matters most. |
| HensoldtHAG | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 11 Nov 2025 | Long-term targets reiterated, but slower 2026 growth pushes rewards further out. |
| LeonardoLDO | Italy | 2 | Positive | 6 Oct 2026 | Defence electronics drives margin progress and strong order momentum. |
| LISIFII | France | 1 | Very positive | 12 Nov 2025 | Aerospace-driven growth and automation make LISI a rare earnings-visibility industrial. |
| Montana AerospaceAERO | Switzerland | 4 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Aerostructures strong, space upside, but big fourth quarter needed. |
| MTU Aero EnginesMTX | Germany | 5 | Positive | 3 Nov 2026 | Supply chain delays hold back growth; valuation discount looks excessive given strong maintenance demand. |
| RENKR3NK | Germany | 4 | Very positive | 5 Nov 2026 | Record orders and backlog; shares look too cheap for their earnings growth. |
| RheinmetallRHM | Germany | 5 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Orders are strong, but lowered targets and delayed acceptance mean execution must be rebuilt. |
| Rolls-RoyceRR | UK | 1 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Solid update and Power Systems boom, but shares no longer cheap. |
| SafranSAF | France | 5 | Neutral | 27 Oct 2026 | Higher capex complicates an otherwise strong outlook, with airline demand adding uncertainty. |
| ThalesHO | France | 4 | Neutral | 27 Oct 2026 | Defence growth accelerates; other businesses uneven, with a French tax burden pressuring earnings. |
| TheonTHEON | Netherlands | 2 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Diversifying beyond night vision is working, but cash and orders remain the weak spots. |
| thyssenkruppTKA | Germany | 7 | Neutral | 13 Oct 2026 | tk accelis separation creates a large standalone distributor with M&A firepower and Europe challenges. |
| TKMSTKMS | Germany | 2 | Positive | 13 Aug 2026 | Raised guidance and strong naval pipeline, though cash flow remains timing-dependent. |
| VincorionV1NC | Germany | 4 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | 40% growth and big backlog; rescue hoist delay is minor. |
| VogoALVGO | France | 1 | Negative | 25 Sep 2025 | Transition pains; financial trajectory may force lower expectations. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Software & internet, mildly positive.
113 takes on 50 companies, 53% positive and 16% negative.
The short version.
- Third most positive sector, recovering after the AI scare in early 2026.
- Quality compounders hold up: SAP, Nemetschek, Sage, Scout24.
- Polish e-commerce is a standout (Allegro, InPost).
- IT services and some SaaS names lag (TeamViewer, OVHcloud, Atos).
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
The AI scare went too far for companies that own the data.
Software and internet is our third most positive sector, and it has been an eventful year. In January and February 2026, fears that AI tools would replace software subscriptions triggered the worst sell-off in the sector since 2008. SAP fell about 40% from its 2025 peak, and Sage, Dassault Systèmes and RELX all dropped sharply. Our view at the time was that the sell-off went too far for companies with deep customer relationships and data that AI needs rather than replaces. Since then, results have mostly backed that up, and our average has recovered from 3.24 in the first half to 3.56 in the second.
Where we are positive
SAP is our clearest example: cloud growth is accelerating on AI demand, and margins are improving despite higher investment. Nemetschek is a high-quality compounder whose move to subscriptions keeps improving its economics. Sage looked undervalued amid the AI fears, and Scout24 keeps growing subscriptions at high margins. In e-commerce, Allegro stands out. Polish growth is accelerating, guidance is up, and its deal with InPost lifts the outlook further. Zalando is lifting margins through logistics savings and B2B growth. In IT services, Capgemini, Sword Group and Infotel are winning AI work, which suggests that AI can also be a source of growth for service firms. IONOS is adding customers with new AI products, and we think its valuation ignores the acceleration.
Where we are cautious
Not every software company is safe. TeamViewer's retention is getting worse and its guidance weaker, and OVHcloud must find growth again. Atos is still shrinking while it restructures. Ubisoft is in a deep reset with a strained balance sheet. Adyen still grows above 20%, but dropping its margin target makes the investment case less clear. Sidetrade's sales engine stalled, and the stock was the hardest hit in the early-2026 sell-off. Payment processors Nexi and Worldline have repaired their balance sheets but still need to show growth.
What the numbers say
53% of our 113 takes are positive, the highest share of any large sector, and 16% negative. Upgrades this year came at SAP, Allegro and Capgemini, downgrades at Adyen and TeamViewer. We think the AI debate will keep separating companies that own data and workflows from those that sell features AI can copy.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- AllegroInPost deal lifts guidance; core marketplace keeps growing double digits.
- SAPCloud growth accelerating on AI demand, with margins improving despite investment costs.
- InfotelRaised growth guidance and strong margins leave it well positioned.
- Sword GroupDouble-digit growth continues as the mix shifts toward AI and managed services.
- UbisoftDeep reset continues; near-term risk-reward remains unattractive given strained balance sheet.
- Mister SpexStores grow, online keeps shrinking and cash is falling.
- TeamViewerNew enterprise products grow, but retention deterioration and weaker guidance are concerning.
- AdyenStrong growth, but dropping the margin target makes the investment case less clear.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- AI and data centres11 takes4.18
- Takeovers and break-ups7 takes3.43
- Valuation looks cheap3 takes4.00
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- AdyenSoftware & internetPositive → NegativeStrong growth, but dropping the margin target makes the investment case less clear.Latest take →
- SidetradeSoftware & internetPositive → NegativeCommercial engine still stalling; a possible 2026 rebound depends on normalising momentum.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026AllegroInPost deal lifts guidance; core marketplace keeps growing double digits.
- 12 Nov 2026IONOSAI products add customers; valuation ignores the acceleration.
- 12 Nov 2026Mister SpexStores grow, online keeps shrinking and cash is falling.
- 12 Nov 2026initTemporary profit dip, strong order book supports recovery.
- 10 Nov 2026NexiCost control is strong, but slow revenue growth makes the 2026 revenue target a stretch.
- 5 Nov 2026ZalandoB2B growth and cost savings support another strong year despite consumer pressure.
- 5 Nov 2026Scout24Subscription growth and high margins continue at a reasonable valuation.
- 3 Nov 2026CapgeminiAccelerating AI demand and attractive valuation; weaker bookings are the main monitoring point.
The companies
Every company we cover in Software & internet.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AdyenADYEN | Netherlands | 8 | Negative | 29 Oct 2026 | Strong growth, but dropping the margin target makes the investment case less clear. |
| AllegroALE | Poland | 5 | Very positive | 12 Nov 2026 | InPost deal lifts guidance; core marketplace keeps growing double digits. |
| AltenATE | France | 1 | Negative | 30 Sep 2025 | Operations stabilising, but auto uncertainty keeps investors cautious. |
| AmadeusAMS | Spain | 2 | Neutral | 4 Aug 2026 | Resilient execution, but softer travel volumes limit the short-term investment case. |
| Answear.comANR | Poland | 2 | Positive | 20 Nov 2025 | Steady recovery; growth maturing, margin repair on track. |
| AtosATO | France | 1 | Negative | 21 Oct 2025 | Restructuring progress undercut by revenue decline; growth still missing. |
| ATOSS SoftwareAOF | Germany | 1 | Positive | 3 Feb 2026 | Strong cloud growth and high margins; margin upside is the question. |
| AubayAUB | France | 1 | Positive | 18 Sep 2025 | Steady delivery, Solutec adds to mix, margins set to recover. |
| AutotraderAUTO | UK | 1 | Neutral | 26 May 2026 | Solid FY26 despite soft Q4; early FY27 recovery signs, but catalyst lacking. |
| Banqup GroupBANQ | Belgium | 2 | Positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Strategic review could unlock value in the e-invoicing platform, separated from legacy operations. |
| BechtleBC8 | Germany | 4 | Positive | 22 Sep 2026 | Services-led margin expansion drives 2030 targets, with the UK as template. |
| Bigben InteractiveBIG | France | 1 | Negative | 25 Nov 2025 | Refinancing buys time, but no structural catalyst is visible. |
| CANCOMCOK | Germany | 1 | Negative | 12 Feb 2025 | Revenue surprised, but profitability disappointed and remains cautious overall. |
| CapgeminiCAP | France | 3 | Positive | 3 Nov 2026 | Accelerating AI demand and attractive valuation; weaker bookings are the main monitoring point. |
| CD ProjektCDR | Poland | 1 | Positive | 2 Jun 2026 | Steady quarter and new expansion add momentum; share price correction noted. |
| CegedimCGM | France | 1 | Negative | 30 Sep 2025 | Restructuring progresses, but growth is tepid and catalysts scarce. |
| CTACCTAC | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 9 Oct 2025 | Mandatory bid undervalues a recovering niche IT player; board stays neutral. |
| Dassault SystèmesDSY | France | 2 | Neutral | 23 Oct 2025 | Sound business, but transition timing hurts near-term visibility and shares. |
| Delivery HeroDHER | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 26 May 2026 | Uber's €33 bid reframes the stock as a deal-arbitrage play. |
| eDreams ODIGEOEDR | Spain | 4 | Neutral | 1 Sep 2026 | Investment-heavy year; cash EBITDA inflection in Q4 is the key milestone. |
| EskerALESK | France | 1 | Positive | 17 Jan 2025 | Strong 2024 growth and upbeat 2025 guidance, though ownership future is uncertain. |
| Indra SistemasIDR | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 1 Oct 2026 | Management reshuffle simplifies structure before the November strategic plan. |
| InfotelINF | France | 2 | Very positive | 24 Sep 2026 | Raised growth guidance and strong margins leave it well positioned. |
| initIXX | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Temporary profit dip, strong order book supports recovery. |
| IONOSIOS | Germany | 4 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | AI products add customers; valuation ignores the acceleration. |
| Just Eat Takeaway.comTKWY | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 26 Feb 2025 | Friendly Prosus premium offer looks attractive, with rival bid uncertain. |
| Mister SpexMRX | Germany | 1 | Negative | 12 Nov 2026 | Stores grow, online keeps shrinking and cash is falling. |
| NaconNACON | France | 1 | Neutral | 22 Jan 2025 | Weak Q3, but back-catalogue and accessories point to brighter days ahead. |
| NagarroNA9 | Germany | 2 | Positive | 30 Jun 2026 | Persistent's bid offers a rare premium; minority holders should likely accept. |
| NemetschekNEM | Germany | 3 | Very positive | 5 Nov 2025 | Roughly 20% organic growth; subscription transition is structurally improving economics. |
| NexiNEXI | Italy | 2 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Cost control is strong, but slow revenue growth makes the 2026 revenue target a stretch. |
| OVHcloudOVH | France | 2 | Negative | 13 Jan 2026 | Growth slowing and execution issues; burden of proof now on management. |
| PlaniswarePLNW | France | 1 | Positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Practical AI and clearer packaging should ease adoption; shares lag operations. |
| ProsusPRX | Netherlands | 2 | Neutral | 30 Jun 2026 | Building integrated ecosystems; investing ahead, sacrificing short-term earnings for long-term position. |
| Redcare PharmacyRDC | Germany | 3 | Positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Prescription and non-Rx momentum lift guidance; cash generation remains the missing piece. |
| Sage GroupSGE | UK | 2 | Very positive | 26 May 2026 | Steady, recurring-revenue compounder; market undervalues it amid AI disruption fears. |
| SAPSAP | Germany | 6 | Very positive | 22 Oct 2026 | Cloud growth accelerating on AI demand, with margins improving despite investment costs. |
| Scout24G24 | Germany | 3 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | Subscription growth and high margins continue at a reasonable valuation. |
| SidetradeALBFR | France | 5 | Negative | 22 Jan 2026 | Commercial engine still stalling; a possible 2026 rebound depends on normalising momentum. |
| Sopra SteriaSOP | France | 1 | Positive | 16 Dec 2025 | Leadership change and momentum signal a turnaround; valuation still looks undemanding. |
| Sword GroupSWP | France | 2 | Very positive | 15 Sep 2026 | Double-digit growth continues as the mix shifts toward AI and managed services. |
| TeamViewerTMV | Germany | 4 | Negative | 3 Nov 2026 | New enterprise products grow, but retention deterioration and weaker guidance are concerning. |
| TemenosTEMN | Switzerland | 3 | Neutral | 11 Jun 2026 | Additiv bolt-on fits strategy well but is too small to move earnings. |
| TEXTTXT | Poland | 1 | Negative | 1 Sep 2026 | Multi-product adoption improves, but revenue growth and margins remain under pressure. |
| The Platform GroupTPG | Germany | 1 | Positive | 26 Aug 2025 | Rapid scale across verticals; growth strong, cash flow negative from investments. |
| UbisoftUBI | France | 3 | Very negative | 21 May 2026 | Deep reset continues; near-term risk-reward remains unattractive given strained balance sheet. |
| WallixALLIX | France | 3 | Positive | 13 Oct 2026 | Losses narrowing and cash flow turning positive as recurring revenue scales profitably. |
| WavestoneWAVE | France | 3 | Neutral | 15 Sep 2026 | Sand Cherry deal expands the US platform during a weak operating period. |
| WorldlineWLN | France | 1 | Neutral | 3 Sep 2026 | Balance sheet repaired; turnaround now needs proof in growth and cash flow. |
| ZalandoZAL | Germany | 3 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | B2B growth and cost savings support another strong year despite consumer pressure. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Real estate & construction, mildly positive.
54 takes on 29 companies, 48% positive and 11% negative.
The short version.
- Fourth most positive sector, driven by construction, not property.
- Austrian builders lead: Strabag, PORR, with record backlogs.
- Logistics property is steady (Argan, WDP); residential suffers from rates.
- Data centres are becoming a big part of order books (ACS, Implenia).
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Builders with backlogs, not landlords with debt.
Real estate and construction is our fourth most positive sector, but the two halves of the name tell very different stories. Builders and infrastructure contractors are doing well, with record order books from public infrastructure, energy networks and data centres. Property owners, especially in German housing and offices, are struggling with higher financing costs. The ECB's return to rate rises in September has made that worse. Our positive view is almost entirely about construction.
Where we are positive
Strabag is our strongest call in the sector: a record backlog, two margin upgrades this year and 2030 targets that were raised, with acquisitions and public-private projects adding growth. PORR's order intake is recovering as infrastructure tenders support growth into 2027. Both benefit from Germany's €500bn infrastructure fund, although we note that only about a tenth had been spent by August and many engineering firms have yet to see more work. Data centres are becoming a real driver: they now make up a quarter of ACS's record backlog, and Implenia is growing selectively into data centres and infrastructure with a clearer path to higher margins. VINCI keeps surprising on cash generation. On the property side, logistics landlords are the steady performers. Argan has full occupancy and dependable rental growth, and WDP's deal for Argan's assets adds occupied French warehouses. Unite and Big Yellow are quality niche landlords.
Where we are cautious
Residential property is where higher rates hurt most. We turned 'very negative' on Vonovia in October: higher rates and flat earnings, plus the risk of tighter rent regulation, make a share price recovery hard to see. Aroundtown and Branicks still depend on their balance sheets. Office exposure remains a drag at Icade, UBM and Foncière INEA. Merlin Properties faces new data-centre rules in Spain. CFE's guidance implies a softer second half, and Neinor Homes is strong but in a sector near its cyclical peak. French housebuilders such as Kaufman & Broad face a market held back by policy and rates.
What the numbers say
48% of our 54 takes are positive and 11% negative. The average has been around 3.5 through 2026, helped by repeated upgrades at Strabag and PORR. We expect the split to continue: contractors with long infrastructure and data-centre backlogs have visibility into 2028, while property owners need lower rates that the ECB is not yet offering.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- VonoviaHigher rates and flat earnings, plus regulatory risk, make a share price recovery hard to see.
- Merlin PropertiesSpanish data centre rules add risk, and Portugal offers a fallback.
- CFEMargins improved, but guidance implies softer second half and limited upside.
- IcadeDisposals help liquidity, but core property fundamentals remain fragile.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Takeovers and break-ups6 takes3.33
- Guidance raised3 takes4.67
- AI and data centres3 takes3.33
- Energy transition2 takes2.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- VonoviaReal estate & constructionNeutral → Very negativeHigher rates and flat earnings, plus regulatory risk, make a share price recovery hard to see.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026ACSRecord backlog with data centres now a quarter of it.
- 12 Nov 2026StrabagSecond margin upgrade on better project mix and execution.
- 10 Nov 2026BouyguesEquans carries the group while French property and media weaken, and SFR nears completion.
- 29 Oct 2026VonoviaHigher rates and flat earnings, plus regulatory risk, make a share price recovery hard to see.
- 8 Oct 2026PORROrder momentum recovers; infrastructure tenders support growth into 2027.
- 24 Sep 2026Merlin PropertiesSpanish data centre rules add risk, and Portugal offers a fallback.
- 15 Sep 2026StrabagHigher 2030 output target, with acquisitions supplying up to half the growth.
- 3 Sep 2026StrabagHigher 2030 targets, with acquisitions and PPPs driving growth alongside margin discipline.
The companies
Every company we cover in Real estate & construction.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACSACS | Spain | 1 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Record backlog with data centres now a quarter of it. |
| ArganARG | France | 4 | Positive | 2 Jul 2026 | Full occupancy and disciplined development sustain steady, dependable rental growth. |
| AroundtownAT1 | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 28 May 2026 | Steady operations; buybacks and disposals help, but leverage remains the watch point. |
| Big Yellow GroupBYG | UK | 1 | Positive | 18 Nov 2025 | Steady rent growth and efficiency gains; shares look attractively priced. |
| BouyguesEN | France | 1 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Equans carries the group while French property and media weaken, and SFR nears completion. |
| BranicksBRNK | Germany | 1 | Negative | 29 Aug 2025 | Stable on the surface, but the balance sheet remains the key worry. |
| CA ImmoCAI | Austria | 2 | Neutral | 27 Nov 2025 | Shrinking deliberately to strengthen the balance sheet and fund returns. |
| Care Property InvestCPINV | Belgium | 1 | Neutral | 4 Sep 2025 | Earnings nudge up, but limited growth levers and high payout constrain expansion. |
| CFECFEB | Belgium | 4 | Negative | 27 Aug 2026 | Margins improved, but guidance implies softer second half and limited upside. |
| DEME GroupDEME | Belgium | 1 | Neutral | 27 Aug 2026 | Joint-venture income drove profit; core EBITDA flat, balance sheet stronger. |
| EiffageFGR | France | 1 | Neutral | 27 Aug 2026 | Concession traffic weakness offset by growing contracting order book. |
| Foncière INEAINEA | France | 2 | Neutral | 17 Feb 2026 | Cash flows stabilising; dividend supports investors while office recovery remains pending. |
| IcadeICAD | France | 1 | Negative | 23 Oct 2025 | Disposals help liquidity, but core property fundamentals remain fragile. |
| ImpleniaIMPN | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 20 Aug 2026 | Higher-margin backlog should drive margin gains, with revenue flat in 2026. |
| InvestisIREN | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 3 Sep 2026 | Selective acquisitions and strong balance sheet wait for better entry yields. |
| Kaufman & BroadKOF | France | 2 | Neutral | 7 Oct 2025 | Solid profits and clean balance sheet, but French housing limits near-term acceleration. |
| LEG ImmobilienLEG | Germany | 1 | Positive | 4 Aug 2026 | Steady first half keeps the company firmly on track for full-year targets. |
| Merlin PropertiesMRL | Spain | 1 | Negative | 24 Sep 2026 | Spanish data centre rules add risk, and Portugal offers a fallback. |
| Neinor HomesHOME | Spain | 2 | Neutral | 20 Jan 2026 | Strong pre-sales and scale, though the sector is near a cyclical peak. |
| NEPI RockcastleNRP | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 20 Aug 2026 | Solid rental growth and asset appreciation support another guidance upgrade. |
| PORRPOS | Austria | 3 | Positive | 8 Oct 2026 | Order momentum recovers; infrastructure tenders support growth into 2027. |
| SafestoreSAFE | UK | 1 | Neutral | 27 Nov 2025 | Expanding steadily, but the equity story feels balanced rather than compelling. |
| StrabagSTR | Austria | 6 | Very positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Second margin upgrade on better project mix and execution. |
| Swiss Prime SiteSPSN | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 5 Feb 2026 | Clean operational delivery, with Asset Management as the standout growth engine. |
| UBM DevelopmentUBS | Austria | 4 | Neutral | 1 Sep 2026 | Residential recovery advances, but asset sales and hotel timing add uncertainty. |
| Unite GroupUTG | UK | 1 | Positive | 13 Jan 2026 | High-quality student housing play; buybacks signal confidence in valuation. |
| VINCIDG | France | 2 | Positive | 10 Feb 2026 | Cash generation keeps surprising; attractive yield from a stable model. |
| VonoviaVNA | Germany | 3 | Very negative | 29 Oct 2026 | Higher rates and flat earnings, plus regulatory risk, make a share price recovery hard to see. |
| WDPWDP | Belgium | 2 | Positive | 3 Sep 2026 | ARGAN deal adds occupied French assets, pipeline and higher investment capacity. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Healthcare, mildly positive.
145 takes on 64 companies, 46% positive and 16% negative.
The short version.
- Broadly positive, but valuations are often full.
- Clear growth stories: Ypsomed, Galderma, Straumann, Lonza, argenx.
- Biosimilars are a growing theme (Sandoz, Fresenius, Formycon).
- Big pharma is under pressure: Novo Nordisk, Novartis, Smith & Nephew.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Focused mid-caps over big pharma.
Healthcare is the sector we write about most: 145 takes on 64 companies. Our overall view is broadly positive and has improved steadily since early 2025. The sector has had a difficult year in the headlines. US drug pricing reform under the Trump administration hit the big drug makers, Novo Nordisk guided for a double-digit fall in 2026 sales after cutting US prices by close to 20%, and several large companies face patent expiries. Beneath that, many mid-sized European healthcare companies are growing quickly and steadily, which is why our average holds up.
Where we are positive
Our strongest views are on companies with a clear growth driver. argenx has turned Vyvgart into a blockbuster, and new uses such as myositis make it a platform rather than a one-drug story. Ypsomed, the Swiss pen maker, grows in the high teens with margins above 30%. Galderma raised guidance on Nemluvio, Straumann benefits from resilient US demand and a recovering China, and UCB's Bimzelx keeps winning head-to-head trials. In the supply chain, Lonza, Sartorius and Siegfried gain from the build-out of biologics manufacturing, and Sartorius has room to grow as single-use equipment moves into commercial production. Biosimilars are a growing theme: Fresenius made them a credible growth driver through its WuXi Biologics deal, and Sandoz has put them at the centre of its plan to 2035. Fresenius as a whole is one of our best turnaround calls.
Where we are cautious
Valuation is the recurring caveat: Sonova, Sandoz and Tecan look priced for delivery after strong share price moves. The clear negatives are companies with execution problems. Smith & Nephew cut guidance twice, and we think confidence will not return until orthopaedics is fixed or sold. Guerbet's problems at its Raleigh plant strain cash and earnings, and Coloplast lost credibility with a weak first quarter. Among the giants, Novartis lost an important Lp(a) heart drug trial in September, and Novo Nordisk still needs clinical proof that its pipeline can carry the company beyond obesity drugs, where Eli Lilly keeps taking share. Evotec and QIAGEN face strategic resets.
What the numbers say
46% of our takes are positive and 16% negative. The average has risen from 3.18 in early 2025 to 3.42 in 2026. Our view changes split both ways: upgrades at Fresenius, Straumann and BioNTech, downgrades at Novartis, Coloplast and Smith & Nephew. We prefer focused mid-caps with their own growth drivers over the large pharma groups.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- YpsomedPure pen maker grows high teens with margins above 30%.
- AstraZenecaTozorakimab's Phase III COPD results open a large, broad commercial opportunity.
- DemantStrong Q2 and raised outlook, with Oticon Reveal rollout adding momentum.
- BioNTechPumitamig data and a broad oncology pipeline strengthen the late-stage investment case.
- Smith & NephewTwo guidance cuts and knee weakness undermine confidence until orthopaedics is fixed or sold.
- NovartisPelacarsen failure dents Lp(a) hopes; Leqvio and abelacimab now matter more.
- GuerbetRaleigh problems strain cash and earnings; recovery timing remains difficult to predict.
- Novo NordiskDiversification is essential, but pipeline assets still need decisive clinical proof.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Takeovers and break-ups9 takes3.22
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts7 takes2.00
- Guidance raised6 takes4.50
- Valuation looks cheap4 takes4.00
- China weakness3 takes3.67
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- Merck KGaAHealthcareVery positive → NeutralElectronics and bioprocessing upgrade guidance, offsetting healthcare patent losses.Latest take →
- EvotecHealthcareVery negative → NeutralVertex deal anchors biologics, but lumpy income and a production pause keep growth uncertain.Latest take →
- GaldermaHealthcareVery positive → NeutralCFO exit is an unwelcome distraction, but long-term prospects remain attractive.Latest take →
- AstraZenecaHealthcareNeutral → Very positiveTozorakimab's Phase III COPD results open a large, broad commercial opportunity.Latest take →
- NovartisHealthcareNeutral → Very negativePelacarsen failure dents Lp(a) hopes; Leqvio and abelacimab now matter more.Latest take →
- ModernaHealthcareNegative → PositiveMelanoma phase III win validates mRNA oncology; survival data still pending.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026YpsomedPure pen maker grows high teens with margins above 30%.
- 12 Nov 2026SonovaShare gains lift outlook, though valuation already prices much in.
- 12 Nov 2026Merck KGaAElectronics and bioprocessing upgrade guidance, offsetting healthcare patent losses.
- 12 Nov 2026SandozBiosimilar plan well under way, but market assumes delivery.
- 12 Nov 2026DermapharmBranded pharma strong, weaker divisions dilute group growth.
- 10 Nov 2026EvotecVertex deal anchors biologics, but lumpy income and a production pause keep growth uncertain.
- 10 Nov 2026Smith & NephewTwo guidance cuts and knee weakness undermine confidence until orthopaedics is fixed or sold.
- 10 Nov 2026Siemens HealthineersStrong fiscal 2026, but a 2027 earnings dip may offer long-term entry.
The companies
Every company we cover in Healthcare.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AbivaxABVX | France | 4 | Positive | 30 Jun 2026 | Safety data reassures ahead of filing; M&A chatter likely to resurface. |
| AlconALC | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 11 Aug 2026 | New launches drive growth, though impairments weigh on reported profitability. |
| argenxARGX | Belgium | 3 | Positive | 25 Jun 2026 | Myositis could become a major next chapter for Vyvgart's expansion. |
| AstraZenecaAZN | UK | 2 | Very positive | 10 Sep 2026 | Tozorakimab's Phase III COPD results open a large, broad commercial opportunity. |
| Atrys HealthATRY | Spain | 1 | Positive | 4 Nov 2025 | Prevention sale would cut debt and refocus on precision medicine growth. |
| BastideBLC | France | 1 | Positive | 9 Sep 2025 | Intact margin guide and a slimmer portfolio de-risk the path. |
| BayerBAYN | Germany | 4 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | Pharma recovery prompts higher EBITDA and cash-flow guidance; litigation risk persists. |
| BB BiotechBION | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 28 Oct 2025 | Strong NAV rebound and active rotation; biotech recovery play trading below NAV. |
| bioMérieuxBIM | France | 2 | Positive | 4 Sep 2025 | Cash and margins improving, with guidance tilting toward higher profit. |
| BioNTechBNTX | Germany | 3 | Very positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Pumitamig data and a broad oncology pipeline strengthen the late-stage investment case. |
| Carl Zeiss MeditecAFX | Germany | 3 | Negative | 16 Dec 2025 | Solid franchise, but China weakness and back-loaded recovery delay the rebound. |
| CarmatALCAR | France | 1 | Negative | 3 Feb 2025 | Funding buys time, but more capital is needed and dilution is a concern. |
| ColoplastCOLOB | Denmark | 3 | Neutral | 18 Aug 2026 | Continence Care is strong, but broader growth recovery remains uneven. |
| Cosmo PharmaceuticalsCMHC | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 20 Oct 2026 | Positive Phase II rifamycin data broaden the pipeline, but a larger Phase III trial is needed. |
| DemantDEMANT | Denmark | 1 | Very positive | 13 Aug 2026 | Strong Q2 and raised outlook, with Oticon Reveal rollout adding momentum. |
| DermapharmDMP | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Branded pharma strong, weaker divisions dilute group growth. |
| Diagnostic Medical SystemsALDMS | France | 4 | Positive | 11 Jun 2026 | ONYX certification removes regulatory risk; execution is the next test. |
| EmeisEMEIS | France | 1 | Neutral | 16 Dec 2025 | Deleveraging via disposals is working, but execution risks remain. |
| Eurofins ScientificERF | France | 2 | Neutral | 1 Oct 2026 | Biopharma recovery still delayed; Life carries the group while buybacks accelerate. |
| EvotecEVT | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Vertex deal anchors biologics, but lumpy income and a production pause keep growth uncertain. |
| Faes FarmaFAE | Spain | 1 | Positive | 16 Oct 2025 | Acquisitions build an ophthalmology platform; shares still trade at a discount. |
| FagronFAGR | Belgium | 1 | Neutral | 8 Oct 2026 | North American compounding disruption masks strong underlying growth; recovery expected in Q4. |
| FormyconFYB | Germany | 2 | Positive | 5 Feb 2025 | Biosimilar expansion in APAC; a US partner is the next milestone. |
| Fresenius Medical CareFME | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 3 Nov 2026 | Better Q3 profit, but subdued revenue trends mean the earnings recovery remains gradual. |
| Fresenius SEFRE | Germany | 4 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | WuXi Biologics deal makes biosimilars a credible long-term growth driver. |
| GaldermaGALD | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 3 Nov 2026 | CFO exit is an unwelcome distraction, but long-term prospects remain attractive. |
| GalenicaGALE | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 28 May 2026 | Pharmacy strength offsets weaker consumer health; guidance reiterated, pace unlikely sustained. |
| GenfitGNFT | France | 2 | Positive | 10 Sep 2026 | NIS2+ diagnostics could grow with MASH treatments, especially recurring monitoring testing. |
| GenSight BiologicsSIGHT | France | 2 | Negative | 30 Sep 2025 | Survival hinges on financing and the French compassionate access milestone. |
| GerresheimerGXI | Germany | 4 | Neutral | 20 Jan 2026 | Stabilising segments suggest a turnaround, with a moulded glass sale unlikely before H2. |
| GN Store NordGN | Denmark | 2 | Neutral | 10 Feb 2026 | Reset year behind; Enterprise execution is the key driver ahead. |
| GrifolsGRF | Spain | 2 | Neutral | 4 Jun 2026 | Bloomberg delay mix-up clarified; SPARTA on track, but overall challenges remain. |
| GuerbetGBT | France | 4 | Negative | 29 Sep 2026 | Raleigh problems strain cash and earnings; recovery timing remains difficult to predict. |
| Innate PharmaIPH | France | 1 | Positive | 17 Sep 2026 | Strengthened cash runway and key readouts approaching before year-end. |
| LNA SantéLNA | France | 1 | Neutral | 18 Sep 2025 | Resilient operations, but long-term plan trimmed modestly. |
| LonzaLONN | Switzerland | 3 | Positive | 15 Oct 2026 | Raised margin and ROIC targets reflect confidence in the expanded network, though execution remains essential. |
| MedincellMEDCL | France | 2 | Positive | 18 Jun 2026 | Revenue dip masks royalty growth; upcoming catalysts should sustain momentum. |
| Merck KGaAMRK | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Electronics and bioprocessing upgrade guidance, offsetting healthcare patent losses. |
| ModernaMRNA | US | 2 | Positive | 20 Aug 2026 | Melanoma phase III win validates mRNA oncology; survival data still pending. |
| NanobiotixNANO | France | 2 | Positive | 16 Dec 2025 | Clinical data strengthen the platform story; de-risking continues, though the road is long. |
| NovartisNOVN | Switzerland | 5 | Very negative | 8 Sep 2026 | Pelacarsen failure dents Lp(a) hopes; Leqvio and abelacimab now matter more. |
| Novo NordiskNOVOB | Denmark | 3 | Negative | 22 Sep 2026 | Diversification is essential, but pipeline assets still need decisive clinical proof. |
| OSE ImmunotherapeuticsOSE | France | 2 | Neutral | 2 Oct 2025 | Governance reset clears the way; execution now matters most. |
| QIAGENQIA | Germany | 1 | Negative | 25 Aug 2026 | New CEO inherits a strategic review and a costly single-cell bet. |
| RocheROG | Switzerland | 3 | Neutral | 29 Sep 2026 | Pipeline breadth keeps improving, though execution and biosimilar pressure remain key risks. |
| RoviROVI | Spain | 3 | Positive | 23 Oct 2025 | Growing CDMO credibility from tier-one partnerships; valuation discount may narrow. |
| SandozSDZ | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Biosimilar plan well under way, but market assumes delivery. |
| SanofiSAN | France | 1 | Neutral | 16 Dec 2025 | Tolebrutinib setbacks add noise, but the long-term case stays intact. |
| SartoriusSRT3 | Germany | 3 | Positive | 6 Oct 2026 | Single-use adoption in commercial manufacturing has substantial room to grow. |
| Sartorius Stedim BiotechDIM | France | 1 | Positive | 16 Oct 2025 | Bioprocessing recovery broadening, though guidance was narrowed prudently rather than raised. |
| Schott Pharma1SXP | Germany | 1 | Positive | 12 Feb 2025 | Weak first half, but H2 recovery and low valuation look attractive. |
| SiegfriedSFZN | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 25 Aug 2026 | Drug Substances drives growth and margins; acquisitions add capacity, cash flow softer. |
| Siemens HealthineersSHL | Germany | 4 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Strong fiscal 2026, but a 2027 earnings dip may offer long-term entry. |
| Smith & NephewSN | UK | 2 | Very negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Two guidance cuts and knee weakness undermine confidence until orthopaedics is fixed or sold. |
| SonovaSOON | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Share gains lift outlook, though valuation already prices much in. |
| STRATECSBS | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 18 Aug 2026 | Systems rebound restores growth and margins, but H2 acceleration remains uncertain. |
| StraumannSTMN | Switzerland | 5 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | US demand is resilient and China is recovering, supporting strong competitive positioning. |
| TecanTECN | Switzerland | 4 | Neutral | 27 Aug 2026 | Recovery is developing, but the share rerating already prices in much improvement. |
| TransgeneTNG | France | 1 | Neutral | 18 Sep 2025 | Funding secured; disciplined execution on immunotherapy milestones. |
| UCBUCB | Belgium | 1 | Very positive | 9 Jun 2026 | Bimzelx's head-to-head wins strengthen its case as a reference IL-17 drug. |
| ValnevaVLA | France | 1 | Neutral | 7 Oct 2025 | Debt refinancing clears runway, but Lyme vaccine data arrives later than expected. |
| VetoquinolVETO | France | 1 | Neutral | 16 Sep 2025 | Margins impress despite soft sales; steady progress rather than dramatic change. |
| VirbacVIRP | France | 5 | Positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Merger talk is misplaced; the standalone plan already offers a credible path. |
| YpsomedYPSN | Switzerland | 2 | Very positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Pure pen maker grows high teens with margins above 30%. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Business services, mildly positive.
46 takes on 22 companies, 47% positive and 15% negative.
The short version.
- Above-average sector that has clearly improved in 2026.
- Security and testing are turning into higher-margin, tech-led businesses.
- Chemical distributors are past the worst (Brenntag, IMCD), Azelis lags.
- Regulation is the main risk: Brazil for Pluxee, AI for Teleperformance.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Self-help stories are turning into better businesses.
Business services sits just above average overall, but it is one of the sectors where our view has improved most clearly this year: from an average near 3.0 in 2025 to around 3.6 in 2026. The common thread is that several companies are becoming better businesses, not just riding a better economy. Security firms are moving from guards to technology, testing companies are adding higher-margin services, and the chemical distributors have come through two years of destocking with their margins largely intact.
Where we are positive
Securitas is the clearest example. We rated it 'very positive' in June: it has turned into a higher-margin, technology-led security business that the market still values like a staffing company, and its double-digit EPS growth ambition looks credible. That shift also sets a benchmark for Prosegur, whose security arm has a lot of margin catch-up potential. Quadient is another favourite: the move to digital is underappreciated, and selling the locker business leaves a simpler group with cash to spend. SPIE keeps delivering steady margin gains and bolt-on deals at a decent valuation, Bilfinger's 2030 plan looks ambitious but believable, and Edenred's fundamentals look stronger than its share price, which private equity interest seems to confirm. In distribution, Brenntag showed in two strong quarters how much earnings power returns when chemical markets move, and IMCD's margins are recovering, led by Asia.
Where we are cautious
Regulation and technology are the two risks. Pluxee runs a good business, but new rules in Brazil will weigh heavily on profits, so its discount looks justified for now. Teleperformance faces the question every call centre operator faces: how much of its work will AI take over, and how fast. Solutions 30 has struggled in France and offered little visibility. Azelis has been slower than its peers to show organic growth. Bureau Veritas was hit by Middle East disruption in the first half, although we expect a second-half recovery and like its new growth plan.
What the numbers say
Nearly half of our 46 takes are positive and 15% are negative. The improvement since 2025 comes mostly from upgrades at Securitas, Quadient, Brenntag and Prosegur. This is a sector of self-help stories, and we expect the gap to keep widening between companies that are changing their business mix and those that wait for volumes to return.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- QuadientExiting lockers simplifies the group and frees cash for digital growth.
- Bureau VeritasGrowth ambitions rise as disposals finish and acquisitions take a larger role.
- SPIEMargin gains, improving cash conversion and bolt-on M&A support continued growth.
- BrenntagEssentials rebound and cost savings lift guidance, though demand caution remains.
- Solutions 30French struggles overshadow progress; no 2025 guidance offered.
- PluxeeSolid operations, but Brazil regulation will weigh heavily; discount seems justified for now.
- TeleperformanceWeak near-term growth; AI and portfolio review remain key questions.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Takeovers and break-ups5 takes3.00
- Valuation looks cheap2 takes3.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- Séché EnvironnementBusiness servicesNegative → PositiveHigh-margin bolt-ons reinforce disciplined, cash-funded international growth.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 5 Nov 2026IMCDGross margins recovering, led by Asia-Pacific, though the valuation looks full.
- 3 Nov 2026PluxeeSolid operations, but Brazil regulation will weigh heavily; discount seems justified for now.
- 6 Oct 2026QuadientExiting lockers simplifies the group and frees cash for digital growth.
- 29 Sep 2026QuadientLocker disposals free capital, leaving a simpler Mail and Digital group.
- 24 Sep 2026Bureau VeritasGrowth ambitions rise as disposals finish and acquisitions take a larger role.
- 8 Sep 2026SPIEMargin gains, improving cash conversion and bolt-on M&A support continued growth.
- 13 Aug 2026BilfingerDelayed work should return in H2; margins likely near the lower end.
- 13 Aug 2026BrenntagEssentials rebound and cost savings lift guidance, though demand caution remains.
The companies
Every company we cover in Business services.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AzelisAZE | Belgium | 3 | Neutral | 27 Jan 2026 | Quality franchise, but gradual recovery leaves the stock range-bound near term. |
| BilfingerGBF | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 13 Aug 2026 | Delayed work should return in H2; margins likely near the lower end. |
| BrenntagBNR | Germany | 3 | Positive | 13 Aug 2026 | Essentials rebound and cost savings lift guidance, though demand caution remains. |
| Bureau VeritasBVI | France | 3 | Positive | 24 Sep 2026 | Growth ambitions rise as disposals finish and acquisitions take a larger role. |
| Compass GroupCPG | UK | 1 | Neutral | 7 Feb 2025 | Solid start, but historic-high valuation suggests limited short-term upside. |
| CRITCEN | France | 2 | Neutral | 23 Oct 2025 | Resilient, cash-rich staffing play awaiting a real volume recovery. |
| DerichebourgDBG | France | 1 | Neutral | 9 Dec 2025 | Cyclical trough appears past, but recovery remains unclear; holding pattern. |
| EdenredEDEN | France | 2 | Positive | 18 Jun 2026 | PE interest signals a valuation gap versus strong fundamentals. |
| IMCDIMCD | Netherlands | 2 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Gross margins recovering, led by Asia-Pacific, though the valuation looks full. |
| IntertekITRK | UK | 1 | Positive | 25 Nov 2025 | Firmer margins and healthy cash generation tilt risk/reward positively. |
| PluxeePLX | France | 3 | Negative | 3 Nov 2026 | Solid operations, but Brazil regulation will weigh heavily; discount seems justified for now. |
| ProsegurPSG | Spain | 3 | Positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Securitas' shift sets a benchmark; Prosegur Security has large margin catch-up potential. |
| Prosegur CashCASH | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 31 Oct 2025 | FX and cycle pressure, but a slow turnaround with asymmetric potential. |
| QuadientQDT | France | 4 | Positive | 6 Oct 2026 | Exiting lockers simplifies the group and frees cash for digital growth. |
| SecuritasSECUB | Sweden | 2 | Positive | 16 Jun 2026 | Shift to technology-led security supports a credible double-digit EPS growth ambition. |
| SGSSGSN | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 25 Jun 2026 | Growth stays resilient as transformation fades; a new strategy framework is coming. |
| SodexoSW | France | 2 | Neutral | 2 Jul 2026 | Better third quarter lifts guidance; North America still the key concern. |
| Solutions 30S30 | France | 2 | Very negative | 18 Sep 2025 | French struggles overshadow progress; no 2025 guidance offered. |
| SPIESPIE | France | 2 | Positive | 8 Sep 2026 | Margin gains, improving cash conversion and bolt-on M&A support continued growth. |
| SynergieSDG | France | 1 | Positive | 25 Sep 2025 | Resilient margins and net cash position in a weak market. |
| Séché EnvironnementSCHP | France | 2 | Positive | 7 Jan 2026 | High-margin bolt-ons reinforce disciplined, cash-funded international growth. |
| TeleperformanceTEP | France | 1 | Negative | 23 Jun 2026 | Weak near-term growth; AI and portfolio review remain key questions. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Telecom & media, mildly positive.
80 takes on 36 companies, 43% positive and 16% negative.
The short version.
- Middle of the pack, slightly improving in recent months.
- Deutsche Telekom looks undervalued after the satellite scare.
- Agencies split: Publicis and Havas win, WPP keeps losing clients.
- German mobile (1&1, Vodafone Germany) and satellites (SES) are weak spots.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
The satellite scare looks overdone.
Telecom and media sits in the middle of our sector table. Telecoms are usually the defensive part of a portfolio, but 2026 has not been quiet for them. European telecom shares fell about 18% from their May peak, hit by higher bond yields and by fears that satellite operators led by SpaceX will compete directly for mobile customers. SpaceX's $8bn purchase of US mobile spectrum in October made that threat feel real. In Europe, the Commission has proposed reserving most of the 2 GHz satellite band for a European operator, and Deutsche Telekom, Orange, Vodafone and Telefónica are in talks to bid together. Media companies face a weak advertising market and the shift from linear TV to streaming.
Where we are positive
Deutsche Telekom is our main positive. We think the satellite threat is exaggerated: satellite networks still need expensive ground infrastructure in dense markets, and T-Mobile US keeps performing. After the sell-off, the shares look undervalued. Cellnex showed in Poland that it can earn more from existing towers, KPN's guidance looks conservative, and Telekom Austria's international growth offsets a weak home market. In media, Publicis is the standout agency, with steady organic growth, record wins and data capabilities that its valuation does not reflect, and Havas trades at a discount to peers that is hard to justify. Universal Music benefits from streaming price rises, Canal+ has underappreciated cash flow potential, and tonies keeps growing with Pokémon and Bluey figurines.
Where we are cautious
German mobile is the weak spot. 1&1 keeps losing mobile customers even as its costs fall, and Vodafone grows almost everywhere except Germany. Swisscom's subscriber losses and valuation make the risk-reward unfavourable. SES is under pressure as satellite competition grows. WPP keeps losing accounts, and its turnaround needs visible wins. Linear broadcasters (TF1, M6, MFE) face a weak advertising market, although cost control helps. Ipsos must prove its reset is credible.
What the numbers say
43% of our 80 takes are positive and 16% negative. The average peaked in early 2026 and has eased since, as the satellite scare and weak advertising weighed. We prefer telecom operators with strong cash flows that the market has sold off for reasons we think are overdone, and media companies that win share in a weak market.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- toniesPokémon and Bluey drive figurine growth; margins still modest.
- CellnexPolish network sharing shows the group can earn more from existing towers.
- Canal+African turnaround and European cost savings suggest underappreciated cash flow potential.
- Deutsche TelekomStrong US performance and easing concerns make the shares look undervalued.
- 1&1EBITDA recovers on lower costs, but mobile customers keep leaving.
- SESShares down sharply; C-band proceeds and Intelsat savings could ease pressure, but competition is intensifying.
- WPPAccount losses still weigh; Q3 likely subdued despite a better Q2.
- SwisscomSynergies lift EBITDA; subscriber losses and valuation make risk-reward unfavourable.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Valuation looks cheap6 takes4.00
- Takeovers and break-ups4 takes3.00
- AI and data centres3 takes4.67
- Guidance raised2 takes4.00
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- Wolters KluwerTelecom & mediaVery positive → NeutralProfit ahead of expectations; guidance unchanged, but growth still trails peers.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 20261&1EBITDA recovers on lower costs, but mobile customers keep leaving.
- 12 Nov 2026toniesPokémon and Bluey drive figurine growth; margins still modest.
- 10 Nov 2026VodafoneGrowth is strong almost everywhere except Germany, which still depends on cost cuts.
- 10 Nov 2026Canal+African turnaround and European cost savings suggest underappreciated cash flow potential.
- 10 Nov 2026CellnexPolish network sharing shows the group can earn more from existing towers.
- 29 Oct 2026Deutsche TelekomStrong US performance and easing concerns make the shares look undervalued.
- 27 Oct 2026Deutsche TelekomStarlink threat looks exaggerated; the sell-off seems hard to justify, with a cheap valuation.
- 27 Oct 2026PublicisClient wins and data capabilities should drive further growth; shares look modestly valued.
The companies
Every company we cover in Telecom & media.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1&11U1 | Germany | 1 | Negative | 12 Nov 2026 | EBITDA recovers on lower costs, but mobile customers keep leaving. |
| Banijay GroupBNJ | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 28 Oct 2025 | Tipico deal diversifies into higher-margin gaming, with notable integration risk. |
| Borussia DortmundBVB | Germany | 4 | Positive | 17 Feb 2026 | Transfer-driven H1 rebound; full-year targets look achievable if sporting form holds. |
| Canal+CAN | UK | 1 | Positive | 10 Nov 2026 | African turnaround and European cost savings suggest underappreciated cash flow potential. |
| CellnexCLNX | Spain | 2 | Positive | 10 Nov 2026 | Polish network sharing shows the group can earn more from existing towers. |
| CTS EventimEVD | Germany | 2 | Positive | 25 Aug 2026 | Ticketing and live demand stay strong; November strategy update is next catalyst. |
| Deutsche TelekomDTE | Germany | 6 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | Strong US performance and easing concerns make the shares look undervalued. |
| Digi CommunicationsDIGI | Romania | 1 | Positive | 5 Nov 2025 | Challenger gaining in Spain; convergence and organic growth drive the story. |
| Gamma CommunicationsGAMA | UK | 2 | Negative | 16 Sep 2025 | UK growth slowdown dominates debate; cost control preserves margins amid uncertainty. |
| HavasHAVAS | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 16 Oct 2025 | Solid execution and guidance upgrade; peer discount looks hard to justify. |
| HighCoHCO | France | 3 | Positive | 10 Sep 2026 | Digital activities and Sogec restructuring should lift margins, reaching above 15% from 2027. |
| INWITINW | Italy | 1 | Neutral | 11 Nov 2025 | Slower growth and trimmed targets, but cash generation keeps it defensive. |
| IpsosIPS | France | 2 | Neutral | 27 Jan 2026 | Ambitious growth reset, yet the market has already priced in doubt. |
| JCDecauxDEC | France | 1 | Positive | 15 Sep 2026 | Digital expansion and tender pipeline support momentum despite H2 launch costs. |
| KPNKPN | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 29 Jan 2026 | Steady execution, but 2026 guidance looks conservative against momentum. |
| M6MMT | France | 3 | Neutral | 2 Jul 2026 | World Cup ad revenue offsets softer audiences; early elimination would hurt upside. |
| MFE-MediaForEuropeMFEB | Italy | 2 | Neutral | 17 Sep 2026 | Cost savings offset weak advertising, with recovery developing only gradually. |
| MobilezoneMOZN | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 9 Oct 2025 | Exiting German unit is a necessary reset toward a leaner Swiss core. |
| PublicisPUB | France | 3 | Positive | 27 Oct 2026 | Client wins and data capabilities should drive further growth; shares look modestly valued. |
| Pullup EntertainmentALPUL | France | 3 | Positive | 20 Jan 2026 | Sales decline looks optical, with the back catalogue providing a higher earnings floor. |
| RELXREL | UK | 1 | Positive | 23 Jun 2026 | AI seems to enhance, not threaten, its content and analytics. |
| SESSESG | France | 2 | Negative | 15 Oct 2026 | Shares down sharply; C-band proceeds and Intelsat savings could ease pressure, but competition is intensifying. |
| StröerSAX | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 18 Aug 2026 | Strong OOH growth carries the group while DaaS and e-commerce drag. |
| SunriseSUNN | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 11 Nov 2025 | Cash flow reliability matters more than growth in a saturated market. |
| SwisscomSCMN | Switzerland | 1 | Negative | 6 Aug 2026 | Synergies lift EBITDA; subscriber losses and valuation make risk-reward unfavourable. |
| Telecom ItaliaTIT | Italy | 1 | Positive | 14 Feb 2025 | Real turnaround underway, driven by free cash flow, though customer losses persist. |
| Telekom AustriaTKA | Austria | 2 | Positive | 22 Oct 2026 | International growth offsets domestic weakness, but higher capex raises cash-flow concerns. |
| TF1TFI | France | 2 | Neutral | 1 Oct 2026 | Linear ad weakness offset by cost flexibility and growing TF1+ digital audience. |
| toniesTNIE | Germany | 7 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Pokémon and Bluey drive figurine growth; margins still modest. |
| United InternetUTDI | Germany | 3 | Positive | 15 Sep 2026 | Cost cuts at IONOS and 1&1 aim at stronger cash returns. |
| Universal Music GroupUMG | Netherlands | 5 | Neutral | 13 Oct 2026 | Streaming recovery and subscription pricing support growth, but rising costs keep margins under scrutiny. |
| VivendiVIV | France | 1 | Negative | 2 Dec 2025 | Legal limbo over Bolloré control keeps a deeply discounted stock stuck. |
| VodafoneVOD | UK | 2 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Growth is strong almost everywhere except Germany, which still depends on cost cuts. |
| Wolters KluwerWKL | Netherlands | 3 | Neutral | 6 Aug 2026 | Profit ahead of expectations; guidance unchanged, but growth still trails peers. |
| WPPWPP | UK | 3 | Negative | 29 Sep 2026 | Account losses still weigh; Q3 likely subdued despite a better Q2. |
| Xilam AnimationXIL | France | 2 | Neutral | 2 Dec 2025 | Cautious kid-safe streaming experiment, small now but potentially brand-strengthening. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Industrials, balanced.
160 takes on 79 companies, 40% positive and 18% negative.
The short version.
- Our largest sector: 160 takes, and clearly improving in 2026.
- Electrification and data centres drive the winners (ABB, Siemens Energy, Nexans).
- Semiconductor equipment suppliers are back in favour (VAT, Comet).
- Cyclical machinery, hydrogen and agriculture remain weak.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Electrification booms while the old cycles wait.
Industrials is our largest sector, with 160 takes on 79 companies, and it is a sector of two halves. One group is booming on electrification, power grids and data centres. The other is still waiting for a cyclical recovery in machinery, construction and agriculture that keeps being pushed out. Our average fell to about 3.0 in late 2025 and has since risen to 3.5, the clearest improvement of any large sector, as the first group pulled further ahead.
Where we are positive
Electrification is the strongest theme in our coverage. ABB's orders and margins keep rising on data-centre demand, Siemens Energy has turbine and grid orders stretching well into the next decade, and Schneider Electric is a high-quality compounder even after two large software deals. Nexans and PFISTERER benefit from grid investment, and Legrand raised its 2030 targets on data centres. Belimo, Accelleron and Centiel give smaller-cap exposure to the same trends. Semiconductor equipment suppliers have turned sharply: VAT Group, Comet and OC Oerlikon all report strong order growth as AI pushes chip makers to spend. Geberit is a reliable defensive name, gaining share in a flat market. Among smaller companies, MBB and Rosenbauer stand out, and GEA has broad order strength with an interesting new pharma market.
Where we are cautious
The weak spots are classic cycles and the energy transition's failures. Agricultural machinery (Bucher, EXEL) is still in a trough. Warehouse trucks (KION, Jungheinrich) face pricing pressure and cautious customers. Rieter, Komax and Burckhardt depend on investment cycles that have not turned. Hydrogen has been a graveyard: McPhy, Lhyfe and HDF Energy have all disappointed, and we see little reason to change that view. Alstom's latest profit warning and cash outflow put its balance sheet at risk, and CAF's bus boom is fading at a premium valuation. Steyr Motors had to cut guidance on defence delays. Quality is not the only question: ABB and Belimo are excellent companies, but their valuations leave little room for disappointment.
What the numbers say
40% of our takes are positive and 18% negative. The improvement in 2026 came mostly from electrification and semiconductor names, while many cyclicals stayed flat. We expect that gap to persist into 2027. The grid and data-centre order books are long, and a broad industrial recovery has yet to arrive in Europe.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- CometOrders surge on AI-driven chip demand; guidance raised and margins expected to improve.
- Siemens EnergyTurbine and grid demand extends orders well into the next decade.
- BelimoStrong growth, data-centre demand and modular platform support margin improvement ahead.
- AccelleronHigher volumes at exceptional margins, with pricing restraint protecting customer relationships.
- AlstomAnother profit warning and cash outflow put the balance sheet at risk.
- Steyr MotorsDefence delays and high fixed costs force guidance cuts; delivery evidence needed.
- LhyfeScaling struggles and hydrogen headwinds keep near-term prospects challenged.
- HDF EnergyHydrogen economics remain weak; repeated target delays leave investors without a timeline.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Energy transition13 takes3.08
- Takeovers and break-ups8 takes3.50
- AI and data centres8 takes4.00
- Valuation looks cheap5 takes3.40
- Defence spending4 takes3.25
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- JungheinrichIndustrialsNegative → PositiveLower 2030 targets look more credible, with warehouse automation a promising profit driver.Latest take →
- ABBIndustrialsVery positive → NeutralStrong orders from data centre demand, but valuation leaves little room for disappointment.Latest take →
- Assa AbloyIndustrialsVery positive → NeutralPricing and acquisitions offset a delayed US housing recovery.Latest take →
- BolloréIndustrialsNegative → PositiveControl consolidation and Vivendi ruling open a path to simplification.Latest take →
- BelimoIndustrialsNeutral → Very positiveStrong growth, data-centre demand and modular platform support margin improvement ahead.Latest take →
- AccelleronIndustrialsNeutral → Very positiveHigher volumes at exceptional margins, with pricing restraint protecting customer relationships.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026CAFSolaris bus boom fading while premium valuation leaves little room.
- 10 Nov 2026GEATablet production could add a major pharma growth market on top of a solid core.
- 10 Nov 2026R&S GroupGrowing order book and Polish expansion offset leadership gaps and Kyte weakness.
- 10 Nov 2026JungheinrichLower 2030 targets look more credible, with warehouse automation a promising profit driver.
- 5 Nov 2026DeutzPending FFG acquisition would shift Deutz toward defence; core business improving.
- 5 Nov 2026WeirOrders helped by FX and acquisitions; a strong Q4 is needed to deliver the year.
- 3 Nov 2026GeberitStrong Germany recovery and resilient margins, though slower construction rebound is the key risk.
- 3 Nov 2026Bucher IndustriesOrders are recovering slowly, but profitability could deteriorate more than guidance suggests.
The companies
Every company we cover in Industrials.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ABBABBN | Switzerland | 7 | Neutral | 22 Oct 2026 | Strong orders from data centre demand, but valuation leaves little room for disappointment. |
| AccelleronACLN | Switzerland | 4 | Very positive | 1 Sep 2026 | Higher volumes at exceptional margins, with pricing restraint protecting customer relationships. |
| ALSO HoldingALSN | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 17 Feb 2026 | Acquisition growth masks margin softness; patience needed for integration payoff. |
| AlstomALO | France | 1 | Very negative | 3 Nov 2026 | Another profit warning and cash outflow put the balance sheet at risk. |
| AndritzANDR | Austria | 1 | Positive | 8 Oct 2026 | Energy exposure and services support credible 2029 targets from a solid base. |
| ArcadisARCAD | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 2 Oct 2025 | Large buyback signals confidence in an undervalued stock. |
| ArcureALCUR | France | 1 | Negative | 18 Sep 2025 | Persistence through downturn; partnerships need time to pay off. |
| Assa AbloyASSAB | Sweden | 3 | Neutral | 15 Sep 2026 | Pricing and acquisitions offset a delayed US housing recovery. |
| AssystemASY | France | 1 | Neutral | 18 Sep 2025 | Steady results, but still waiting for catalysts. |
| ASTA Energy Solutions1AST | Austria | 3 | Positive | 17 Sep 2026 | Grid renewal drives demand, with North American expansion decision due H2. |
| BarcoBAR | Belgium | 2 | Neutral | 10 Feb 2026 | Entertainment carries the year; credibility still needs rebuilding. |
| BelimoBEAN | Switzerland | 3 | Very positive | 3 Sep 2026 | Strong growth, data-centre demand and modular platform support margin improvement ahead. |
| BolloréBOL | France | 2 | Positive | 3 Sep 2026 | Control consolidation and Vivendi ruling open a path to simplification. |
| BossardBOSN | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 15 Oct 2026 | Strong Q3 and new guidance signal broad industrial recovery, though restocking may flatter current growth. |
| Bucher IndustriesBUCN | Switzerland | 2 | Negative | 3 Nov 2026 | Orders are recovering slowly, but profitability could deteriorate more than guidance suggests. |
| Burckhardt CompressionBCHN | Switzerland | 1 | Negative | 4 Jun 2026 | Solid services offset weak order intake; medium-term targets now lack a timetable. |
| BurkhalterBRKN | Switzerland | 1 | Negative | 8 Sep 2026 | Solid earnings, but renovation-boom expectations look overly optimistic. |
| CAFCAF | Spain | 1 | Negative | 12 Nov 2026 | Solaris bus boom fading while premium valuation leaves little room. |
| CentielCENT | Switzerland | 3 | Neutral | 27 Oct 2026 | US orders drive expansion, but delivery delay and scaling production raise execution risks. |
| ChargeursCRI | France | 1 | Neutral | 11 Sep 2025 | Museums shine while fashion technologies weakness weighs on a mixed half. |
| Cicor TechnologiesCICN | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 20 Oct 2026 | Strong orders, but component shortages delay revenue and make the Q4 ramp uncertain. |
| CometCOTN | Switzerland | 2 | Very positive | 20 Oct 2026 | Orders surge on AI-driven chip demand; guidance raised and margins expected to improve. |
| DeutzDEZ | Germany | 6 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | Pending FFG acquisition would shift Deutz toward defence; core business improving. |
| DKSHDKSH | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 17 Feb 2026 | Steady execution, with Asia driving growth and guidance pointing to higher core EBIT. |
| Doosan Škoda PowerDSPW | Czech Republic | 1 | Positive | 30 Sep 2025 | Services strength offsets volatile orders; Temelín win boosts future visibility. |
| dormakabaDOKA | Switzerland | 4 | Positive | 8 Sep 2026 | Restructuring fades as organic growth and North America take priority. |
| DürrDUE | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 18 Nov 2025 | Cost savings lift earnings, but weak orders and thin visibility limit growth. |
| EpirocEPIA | Sweden | 1 | Neutral | 9 Jun 2026 | Strategy intact, but the share price already prices in its strengths. |
| EXEL IndustriesEXE | France | 1 | Negative | 18 Dec 2025 | Agricultural trough persists; earnings stay muted until orders recover. |
| ExosensEXENS | France | 1 | Very positive | 11 Dec 2025 | Major OCCAR win secures visibility; deserves a premium versus defence-electronics peers. |
| Forsee PowerFORSE | France | 2 | Negative | 29 Jan 2026 | Shrinking volumes make this a downside-protection story, not recovery. |
| FrequentisFQT | Austria | 1 | Neutral | 11 Aug 2026 | Exceptionally strong H1 revenue is partly timing; H2 margins must improve. |
| GEAG1A | Germany | 2 | Positive | 10 Nov 2026 | Tablet production could add a major pharma growth market on top of a solid core. |
| GeberitGEBN | Switzerland | 5 | Positive | 3 Nov 2026 | Strong Germany recovery and resilient margins, though slower construction rebound is the key risk. |
| Georg FischerGF | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 17 Feb 2026 | Messy transition year, but the water pure-play pivot is nearly complete. |
| HDF EnergyHDF | France | 1 | Very negative | 23 Sep 2025 | Hydrogen economics remain weak; repeated target delays leave investors without a timeline. |
| Jacquet MetalsJCQ | France | 1 | Negative | 11 Sep 2025 | Discipline holds margins, but sluggish European demand keeps outlook challenging. |
| JungheinrichJUN3 | Germany | 5 | Positive | 10 Nov 2026 | Lower 2030 targets look more credible, with warehouse automation a promising profit driver. |
| Kapsch TrafficComKTCG | Austria | 2 | Neutral | 18 Jun 2026 | Weak headline year hides improving backlog and recovery potential. |
| KardexKARN | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 25 Aug 2026 | Record backlog and AutoStore momentum outweigh weak H1 earnings. |
| KendrionKENDR | Netherlands | 2 | Positive | 1 Sep 2026 | Margin gains and new applications broaden growth; margin framework looks conservative. |
| KION GroupKGX | Germany | 1 | Negative | 8 Oct 2026 | Margin recovery is slipping; truck pricing pressure and cautious automation customers persist. |
| Knorr-BremseKBX | Germany | 2 | Positive | 1 Oct 2026 | Healthy orders and improving margins, with trucks offsetting weaker Rail. |
| KomaxKOMN | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 22 Jan 2026 | Lower cost base creates asymmetric risk-reward; market prices in structural impairment. |
| KronesKRN | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 27 Oct 2026 | Lower growth targets reflect cautious customer spending; margins protected, but recovery needs confidence. |
| LegrandLR | France | 1 | Positive | 1 Oct 2026 | Data centres drive higher 2030 targets, with acquisitions central to growth. |
| LhyfeLHYFE | France | 1 | Very negative | 2 Oct 2025 | Scaling struggles and hydrogen headwinds keep near-term prospects challenged. |
| ManitouMTU | France | 1 | Positive | 31 Jan 2025 | Sharp order rebound hints at upcycle; stable sales outlook after tough year. |
| MBBMBB | Germany | 3 | Positive | 18 Aug 2026 | Infrastructure drives sharp profit gains; weaker units are being pruned. |
| McPhy EnergyALMCP | France | 1 | Very negative | 17 Jan 2025 | Weak hydrogen sector and forecast cut paint a challenging picture. |
| NexansNEX | France | 3 | Positive | 27 Oct 2026 | Accelerating growth from grid and data centres; shares look cheap despite execution risks. |
| NORMA GroupNOEJ | Germany | 3 | Positive | 18 Aug 2026 | Large share tender retires shares, mechanically lifting per-share earnings substantially. |
| OC OerlikonOERL | Switzerland | 3 | Positive | 8 Sep 2026 | Strong order rebound supports Mission 2030 targets; ROCE remains the stretch. |
| OrègeOREGE | France | 1 | Negative | 2 Jul 2026 | Recurring service model gains traction, but losses and net debt still weigh. |
| PalfingerPAL | Austria | 2 | Neutral | 28 Oct 2025 | Regional tariff hit; the multi-year thesis remains intact. |
| PFISTERERPFSE | Germany | 5 | Positive | 11 Aug 2026 | Grid demand stays strong; order intake is the key number to watch. |
| R&S GroupRSGN | Switzerland | 3 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Growing order book and Polish expansion offset leadership gaps and Kyte weakness. |
| RationalRAA | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 7 Feb 2025 | Strong 2024, but cautious 2025 outlook and stock already fully priced. |
| RieterRIEN | Switzerland | 3 | Negative | 29 Oct 2026 | Turnaround is slower than expected, with little prospect of a near-term rerating. |
| RosenbauerROS | Austria | 2 | Very positive | 28 May 2026 | Firefighting demand and margin recovery support a multi-year earnings story. |
| SandvikSAND | Sweden | 2 | Neutral | 27 Jan 2026 | Momentum is real, but high expectations leave little room for surprise. |
| Schneider ElectricSU | France | 3 | Neutral | 6 Oct 2026 | PTC deal fills software gap but adds leverage and dilution. |
| Serge FerrariSEFER | France | 1 | Positive | 11 Sep 2025 | Transform 2025 plan delivering early margin gains; turnaround gaining credibility. |
| SFC EnergyF3C | Germany | 1 | Very positive | 26 Feb 2025 | Strong Q4 beat and backlog growth; conservative 2025 outlook may hide upside. |
| SFS GroupSFSN | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 27 Jan 2026 | Margins drifting back toward target; recovery looks credible, not heroic. |
| SiemensSIE | Germany | 1 | Positive | 29 Sep 2026 | Strong orders and backlog support growth into FY2026/27. |
| Siemens EnergyENR | Germany | 5 | Very positive | 15 Sep 2026 | Turbine and grid demand extends orders well into the next decade. |
| SIF HoldingSIFG | Netherlands | 1 | Very negative | 29 Aug 2025 | Production delays halve EBITDA, with a slower ramp-up ahead. |
| SKFSKFB | Sweden | 1 | Neutral | 3 Feb 2025 | Results beat expectations, though dropping full-year guidance adds uncertainty. |
| StabilusSTM | Germany | 5 | Positive | 4 Aug 2026 | Industrial strength offsets automotive weakness as leverage falls toward management's target. |
| Stadler RailSRAIL | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 27 Aug 2026 | Record backlog drives growth; the key test is converting orders into deliveries. |
| Steyr Motors4X0 | Austria | 4 | Very negative | 20 Aug 2026 | Defence delays and high fixed costs force guidance cuts; delivery evidence needed. |
| Thermador GroupeTHEP | France | 2 | Neutral | 20 Jan 2026 | Resilient through the downturn, with a gradual recovery rebuilding. |
| thyssenkrupp nuceraNCH2 | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 18 Dec 2025 | Discipline holds through hydrogen slump; upside hinges on big project awards. |
| TKH GroupTWEKA | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 11 Nov 2025 | Stalled margins frustrate, but divestments and automation focus keep the thesis. |
| VAT GroupVACN | Switzerland | 3 | Very positive | 15 Jan 2026 | Q4 order surge signals a decisive semiconductor upcycle turn. |
| WeirWEIR | UK | 1 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Orders helped by FX and acquisitions; a strong Q4 is needed to deliver the year. |
| WendelMF | France | 1 | Neutral | 16 Dec 2025 | Strategic pivot to asset management; ambitious plan, but near-term path is delicate. |
| ZumtobelZAG | Austria | 2 | Neutral | 4 Dec 2025 | Cost savings strong, but weak construction demand keeps the top line cloudy. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Financials, balanced.
64 takes on 39 companies, 37% positive and 12% negative.
The short version.
- Middle of the pack, with more neutral views than any other sector.
- Banks with self-help or a takeover angle stand out (Commerzbank, RBI).
- Reinsurers earn record profits, but prices are falling fast.
- Exchanges and fintechs are good businesses, mostly fully valued.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Record profits, but much of it is already in the price.
Financials have the highest share of neutral views of any sector we cover. That fits the moment. European banks are earning record profits and returning more cash to shareholders than ever, but much of that is now in share prices. Insurers face a turning cycle, and asset managers and exchanges are high-quality businesses at full valuations. The ECB's return to rate rises in September (the deposit rate is now 2.50%) helps bank margins but raises the risk of more bad loans if the energy shock slows the economy.
Where we are positive
Commerzbank is our standout: record profits and shareholder returns strengthen its position while approvals for UniCredit's stake advance. Raiffeisen Bank International is a recurring positive. Its earnings outside Russia are improving, its Russian exposure is shrinking, and the shares still look cheap against peers. Among insurers, we like steady compounders with surplus capital: Swiss Life's fee growth funds rising shareholder returns, UNIQA and Vienna Insurance Group are solid regional players, and Talanx raised guidance. London Stock Exchange Group offers strong growth at a discounted valuation, and EFG International keeps growing assets with improving cost discipline.
Where we are cautious
Reinsurance is where we have turned more careful. The big European reinsurers earned an average return on equity of about 21.5% in the first half of 2026, but prices for natural catastrophe cover fell 20% to 25% at the mid-year renewals. Swiss Re's current profits rest partly on reserve releases while new business shrinks, and Hannover Re is building buffers to smooth earnings as prices soften. In private markets, Partners Group faces rising redemptions from its evergreen funds, which challenges its push into the wealth channel. Santander's Brazil unit is trading revenue for credit quality, which pushes recovery into 2027. flatexDEGIRO and Swissquote are well run, but slower trading and one-offs leave little upside.
What the numbers say
Only 12% of our 64 takes are negative, but just 37% are positive. The sector dipped to 3.0 in the first half of 2026 and recovered to about 3.4 since. Our view is selective: we prefer banks and insurers with a specific catalyst or excess capital, and we are wary of businesses whose profits depend on prices that are now falling.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- CommerzbankRecord profits and shareholder returns strengthen its position as UniCredit approvals advance.
- GeneraliThe asset management joint venture with BPCE is a significant strategic win.
- Raiffeisen Bank InternationalEarnings outside Russia improving; shares still cheap against peers.
- London Stock Exchange GroupStrong growth at a discounted valuation; AI monetisation and Octus integration are key watchpoints.
- Swiss ReStrong current profits rest on reserve releases, while new business shrinks in a softer market.
- SantanderBrazil unit trades revenue for credit quality; recovery likely pushed into 2027.
- Partners GroupRedemption pressure in evergreen funds challenges the wealth-channel growth story.
- SwissquoteGuidance beat was flattered by one-offs, with slower growth ahead.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Valuation looks cheap4 takes4.00
- Takeovers and break-ups3 takes3.00
- Guidance raised2 takes3.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- Swiss ReFinancialsPositive → NegativeStrong current profits rest on reserve releases, while new business shrinks in a softer market.Latest take →
- Flow TradersFinancialsVery positive → NeutralClearer 2030 targets, but net trading income growth still needs proof.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 10 Nov 2026Hannover ReBuilding resilience reserves now to smooth earnings as reinsurance prices soften.
- 10 Nov 2026CommerzbankRecord profits and shareholder returns strengthen its position as UniCredit approvals advance.
- 10 Nov 2026Swiss ReStrong current profits rest on reserve releases, while new business shrinks in a softer market.
- 5 Nov 2026Deutsche BörseStrong structural growth, but the premium valuation leaves little room for disappointment.
- 5 Nov 2026Raiffeisen Bank InternationalEarnings outside Russia improving; shares still cheap against peers.
- 27 Oct 2026Deutsche BörseStrong trading, fund services and cost control; good progress, but valuation reflects much of it.
- 27 Oct 2026London Stock Exchange GroupStrong growth at a discounted valuation; AI monetisation and Octus integration are key watchpoints.
- 22 Oct 2026flatexDEGIROSlower trading and customer growth, but strong profitability and governance concerns linger.
The companies
Every company we cover in Financials.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AgeasAGS | Belgium | 1 | Negative | 29 Aug 2025 | Headline beat flattered by a one-off tax benefit; China FX dents guidance. |
| AllfundsALLFG | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 4 Nov 2025 | Strong flows, but shrinking fee margins leave monetisation lagging asset growth. |
| AltamirLTA | France | 1 | Neutral | 23 Sep 2025 | Tender offer gives minority holders an exit, but control shifts to the majority. |
| BAWAG GroupBG | Austria | 1 | Neutral | 20 Oct 2026 | Cost cuts support earnings despite rising credit costs and a shifting lending mix. |
| CommerzbankCBK | Germany | 1 | Very positive | 10 Nov 2026 | Record profits and shareholder returns strengthen its position as UniCredit approvals advance. |
| CVC Capital PartnersCVC | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 4 Sep 2025 | Steady first half, with performance fees and exits weighted to H2. |
| Deutsche BörseDB1 | Germany | 4 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Strong structural growth, but the premium valuation leaves little room for disappointment. |
| EFG InternationalEFGN | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 21 May 2026 | Steady asset growth, strong capital generation and improving cost discipline. |
| Erste GroupEBS | Austria | 1 | Neutral | 29 Sep 2026 | Polish majority control makes strategic sense, but pricing and capital require discipline. |
| EurazeoRF | France | 1 | Neutral | 18 Aug 2026 | Organic value creation turned positive, but exits must validate carrying values. |
| EuronextENX | France | 2 | Neutral | 13 Oct 2026 | Italian bid for MTS faces legal and political hurdles; Euronext likely keeps it. |
| flatexDEGIROFTK | Germany | 6 | Neutral | 22 Oct 2026 | Slower trading and customer growth, but strong profitability and governance concerns linger. |
| Flow TradersFLOW | Netherlands | 2 | Neutral | 23 Jun 2026 | Clearer 2030 targets, but net trading income growth still needs proof. |
| GeneraliG | Italy | 1 | Very positive | 22 Jan 2025 | The asset management joint venture with BPCE is a significant strategic win. |
| Hannover ReHNR1 | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Building resilience reserves now to smooth earnings as reinsurance prices soften. |
| IDIIDIP | France | 1 | Positive | 25 Sep 2025 | Disciplined rotation and strong capacity underpin resilience. |
| ING GroupINGA | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 2 Sep 2025 | Solid quarter with conservative guidance; capital return likely ahead. |
| Intesa SanpaoloISP | Italy | 1 | Neutral | 9 Jun 2026 | Monte dei Paschi approach could reshape Italian banking, with uncertainties remaining. |
| Julius BaerBAER | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 3 Feb 2026 | Stable inflows and cleaner earnings shift focus to execution. |
| London Stock Exchange GroupLSEG | UK | 1 | Positive | 27 Oct 2026 | Strong growth at a discounted valuation; AI monetisation and Octus integration are key watchpoints. |
| Munich ReMUV2 | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2025 | Strong Q3 profits, but growth is slowing and Q4 reserves may rise. |
| NN GroupNN | Netherlands | 1 | Positive | 9 Sep 2025 | Rebuilding excess capital sets up bigger buybacks; a capital-return story. |
| Partners GroupPGHN | Switzerland | 2 | Negative | 4 Jun 2026 | Redemption pressure in evergreen funds challenges the wealth-channel growth story. |
| PatriziaPAT | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 11 Aug 2026 | Cost cuts lift earnings, but fee income recovery remains elusive. |
| Peugeot InvestPEUG | France | 1 | Negative | 18 Sep 2025 | Portfolio repositioning after NAV decline; benefits to arrive gradually. |
| Phoenix GroupPHNX | UK | 1 | Positive | 9 Sep 2025 | Steady cash generation and firm solvency; 2026 targets look achievable. |
| Raiffeisen Bank InternationalRBI | Austria | 3 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | Earnings outside Russia improving; shares still cheap against peers. |
| SantanderSAN | Spain | 1 | Negative | 10 Sep 2026 | Brazil unit trades revenue for credit quality; recovery likely pushed into 2027. |
| Sava RePOSR | Slovenia | 1 | Neutral | 16 Dec 2025 | Steady guidance and solid capital, but earnings growth likely to flatten. |
| SCORSCR | France | 2 | Neutral | 5 Feb 2026 | Disciplined renewals protect profitability despite softer pricing; selective growth. |
| Swiss LifeSLHN | Switzerland | 4 | Positive | 1 Sep 2026 | Fee growth and surplus capital fund further shareholder returns. |
| Swiss ReSREN | Switzerland | 3 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Strong current profits rest on reserve releases, while new business shrinks in a softer market. |
| SwissquoteSQN | Switzerland | 1 | Negative | 20 Jan 2026 | Guidance beat was flattered by one-offs, with slower growth ahead. |
| TalanxTLX | Germany | 1 | Positive | 20 Aug 2026 | Strong profitability and raised guidance, though softer pricing and German Life weigh. |
| TINCTINC | Belgium | 1 | Neutral | 10 Sep 2026 | Portfolio growth continues across infrastructure, funded partly by rising net debt. |
| UNIQAUQA | Austria | 4 | Neutral | 20 Aug 2026 | Premium growth and investment gains strong, but underwriting quality needs scrutiny. |
| Van Lanschot KempenVLK | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 29 Aug 2025 | Earnings miss offset by encouraging client inflows and growth. |
| Vienna Insurance GroupVIG | Austria | 2 | Neutral | 27 Aug 2026 | Solid underwriting and investment income; valuation reflects much earnings strength. |
| Zurich InsuranceZURN | Switzerland | 2 | Positive | 13 Aug 2026 | Specialty and Life drive growth, though commercial pricing is softening. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Energy & utilities, balanced.
56 takes on 38 companies, 41% positive and 19% negative.
The short version.
- Middle of the pack, and slightly better in recent months.
- Wind turbine makers are our strongest calls (Vestas, Nordex).
- LNG and energy services look structurally strong (GTT, Technip Energies).
- Small renewables and hedged gas producers carry the most risk.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Equipment makers win, price-takers struggle.
Energy and utilities sits in the middle of our sector table, but 2026 has been anything but quiet. The war involving Iran, which began in late February, sent Brent towards $105 a barrel in March and set off an energy shock across Europe. Power and gas prices rose, the ECB raised rates again in September to a 2.50% deposit rate, and governments looked again at energy security. For our companies, that produced clear winners and losers: refiners and gas traders earned windfalls, while anyone with the wrong hedges or high debt felt the pain.
Where we are positive
Our strongest calls are the wind turbine makers. Vestas broke to higher turbine margins, raised guidance and announced a buyback, and Nordex lifted its margins to new highs with healthy orders. After years of losses, both have regained pricing discipline. GTT is a structural winner in LNG technology, and we saw its recent sell-off as an entry point. Energy security has made LNG more important to Europe, not less. Technip Energies and Técnicas Reunidas combine record backlogs with recovering project margins. Elsewhere, Befesa should gain from a US tax credit, SMA Solar is back to profit with strong cash flow, Ørsted repaired its balance sheet, and Spanish names such as Naturgy and Grenergy have room to grow through acquisitions and storage.
Where we are cautious
The negatives are mostly about hedging, weather and balance sheets. La Française de l'Énergie had to reset its plan after hedging losses forced a cash-first strategy. Uniper's year was saved by gas trading, but repeatable earnings from its power plants are unclear. BKW suffered from weak hydro output, and Transport Trade Services in Romania keeps running into low Danube levels and weak grain prices. Among the large utilities, Iberdrola keeps upgrading guidance on network investment, but its debt is rising, and Endesa's upside depends on higher power prices from 2028. OMV enjoyed record refining margins, but its chemicals arm is stuck and the shares already price that in.
What the numbers say
Our 56 takes average 3.29, close to our overall average, with 41% positive and 19% negative. The second half of 2026 has been better than late 2025. The sector is split: we are positive on companies that sell equipment and technology into the energy transition and energy security, and much more careful with smaller producers exposed to prices they cannot control.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- BefesaUS tax credit and recovering operations should significantly boost cash generation and shareholder returns.
- GTTStrong LNG demand outlook; recent sell-off looks excessive, offering an attractive entry point.
- NordexStrong execution lifts margins to new highs, with healthy orders and raised margin guidance.
- VestasTurbine margins break higher; guidance raised and buyback announced.
- UniperGas trading saved the year, but power plant and repeatable earnings remain uncertain.
- BKWWeak hydro makes the H2 recovery demanding; 2027 looks harder.
- Transport Trade ServicesBetter efficiency and cargo mix, but low Danube levels threaten H2.
- AquilaShare gains are costing margins; H2 targets look very demanding.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Energy transition8 takes3.00
- Takeovers and break-ups4 takes3.75
- Guidance raised3 takes4.00
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts2 takes1.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- SMA SolarEnergy & utilitiesVery negative → PositiveBack to profit with strong cash flow and raised guidance.Latest take →
- La Française de l'ÉnergieEnergy & utilitiesVery negative → NeutralStrong growth from new assets, but hedging losses weigh heavily on finances.Latest take →
- NordexEnergy & utilitiesNeutral → Very positiveStrong execution lifts margins to new highs, with healthy orders and raised margin guidance.Latest take →
- ØrstedEnergy & utilitiesNegative → PositiveBalance sheet repaired and pipeline funded; US execution manageable.Latest take →
- Waga EnergyEnergy & utilitiesVery positive → NeutralShort-term trade on EQT takeover; upside tied to earn-out.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026OMVRecord refining margins, but chemicals stuck and shares priced in.
- 12 Nov 2026SMA SolarBack to profit with strong cash flow and raised guidance.
- 10 Nov 2026UniperGas trading saved the year, but power plant and repeatable earnings remain uncertain.
- 5 Nov 2026EndesaMain upside depends on higher power prices from 2028 as hedging opens up.
- 3 Nov 2026Technip EnergiesProject margins rebound and cash generation is strong, though execution remains key.
- 3 Nov 2026BefesaUS tax credit and recovering operations should significantly boost cash generation and shareholder returns.
- 27 Oct 2026GTTStrong LNG demand outlook; recent sell-off looks excessive, offering an attractive entry point.
- 22 Oct 2026IberdrolaNetwork investment drives another guidance upgrade, though rising debt needs watching.
The companies
Every company we cover in Energy & utilities.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AccionaANA | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 7 Oct 2025 | Guarantor clause signals a staged restructuring, possibly paving a renewables buyout. |
| AquilaAQ | Romania | 1 | Negative | 13 Aug 2026 | Share gains are costing margins; H2 targets look very demanding. |
| Arverne GroupARVEN | France | 1 | Neutral | 25 Sep 2025 | Scaling fast; development milestones matter more than current earnings. |
| BefesaBFSA | Germany | 1 | Very positive | 3 Nov 2026 | US tax credit and recovering operations should significantly boost cash generation and shareholder returns. |
| BKWBKW | Switzerland | 1 | Negative | 3 Sep 2026 | Weak hydro makes the H2 recovery demanding; 2027 looks harder. |
| CarbiosALCRB | France | 1 | Neutral | 25 Sep 2025 | Strong long-term potential, but plant financing and restart remain unresolved. |
| EcoenerENER | Spain | 1 | Positive | 30 Sep 2025 | Rapid capacity growth now shifting toward profitability and returns. |
| EDPEDP | Portugal | 1 | Neutral | 21 May 2026 | Brazil exit highlights EDP's steadier, diversified profile versus EDPR. |
| EnagásENG | Spain | 1 | Positive | 17 Feb 2026 | Steady 2025 numbers; hydrogen build-out is the increasingly visible upside. |
| EndesaELE | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Main upside depends on higher power prices from 2028 as hedging opens up. |
| FortumFORTUM | Finland | 1 | Neutral | 15 Jan 2025 | Near-term headwinds, but nuclear visibility and portfolio moves support long-term resilience. |
| Greencoat RenewablesGRP | Ireland | 1 | Negative | 16 Sep 2025 | Weak wind hurts near-term returns; income case intact, but patience required. |
| GrenergyGRE | Spain | 2 | Positive | 17 Sep 2026 | Asset rotations fund a storage-led expansion under a €3.7bn program. |
| GTTGTT | France | 2 | Very positive | 27 Oct 2026 | Strong LNG demand outlook; recent sell-off looks excessive, offering an attractive entry point. |
| IberdrolaIBE | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 22 Oct 2026 | Network investment drives another guidance upgrade, though rising debt needs watching. |
| La Française de l'ÉnergieFDE | France | 5 | Neutral | 22 Oct 2026 | Strong growth from new assets, but hedging losses weigh heavily on finances. |
| NaturgyNTGY | Spain | 1 | Positive | 15 Sep 2026 | Balance sheet capacity and simpler ownership unlock acquisitions. |
| NordexNDX1 | Germany | 2 | Very positive | 20 Oct 2026 | Strong execution lifts margins to new highs, with healthy orders and raised margin guidance. |
| OMVOMV | Austria | 4 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Record refining margins, but chemicals stuck and shares priced in. |
| RedeiaRED | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 11 Sep 2025 | Clearer regulation brings visibility, though tighter cost standards largely offset gains. |
| RepsolREP | Spain | 1 | Positive | 9 Oct 2025 | Refining strength drives recovery; dividend and buybacks look secure, stock discounted. |
| RubisRUI | France | 1 | Positive | 11 Sep 2025 | Resilient defensive model with a profit beat and steady delivery. |
| ScatecSCATC | Norway | 2 | Positive | 25 Aug 2026 | Obelisk shows capital-light development model; backlog conversion is the key test. |
| ShellSHEL | UK | 1 | Neutral | 7 Oct 2025 | Stable operations, but a steady hold with no new catalyst. |
| SMA SolarS92 | Germany | 2 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Back to profit with strong cash flow and raised guidance. |
| SolariaSLR | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 2 Oct 2025 | Infrastructure gains lifted earnings, but growth path still matters. |
| Technip EnergiesTE | France | 2 | Positive | 3 Nov 2026 | Project margins rebound and cash generation is strong, though execution remains key. |
| TotalEnergiesTTE | France | 2 | Positive | 18 Nov 2025 | Flexible gas-renewables deal looks smart; diversification leadership praised. |
| TransgazTGN | Romania | 1 | Neutral | 2 Jun 2026 | Strong past creates tough comparisons; valuation leaves little room for disappointment. |
| Transport Trade ServicesTTS | Romania | 3 | Negative | 1 Sep 2026 | Better efficiency and cargo mix, but low Danube levels threaten H2. |
| TubacexTUB | Spain | 1 | Negative | 15 Jan 2026 | €50m impairments reset credibility; cash-focused strategy update is the key test. |
| Técnicas ReunidasTRE | Spain | 1 | Very positive | 11 Nov 2025 | Execution and margins have turned a corner; re-rating looks justified and structural. |
| UniperUN01 | Germany | 1 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Gas trading saved the year, but power plant and repeatable earnings remain uncertain. |
| VallourecVK | France | 1 | Positive | 25 Jun 2026 | Geothermal could emerge as a second growth engine beyond oil and gas. |
| VestasVWS | Denmark | 1 | Very positive | 13 Aug 2026 | Turbine margins break higher; guidance raised and buyback announced. |
| VoltaliaVLTSA | France | 1 | Neutral | 4 Sep 2025 | Messy half-year, but a clearer self-funded plan after the Spring refocus. |
| Waga EnergyWAGA | France | 2 | Neutral | 30 Sep 2025 | Short-term trade on EQT takeover; upside tied to earn-out. |
| ØrstedORSTED | Denmark | 2 | Positive | 10 Feb 2026 | Balance sheet repaired and pipeline funded; US execution manageable. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Luxury & consumer brands, balanced.
104 takes on 39 companies, 43% positive and 20% negative.
The short version.
- Below average, and weaker than in 2025.
- Luxury recovery keeps slipping: LVMH fashion fell 5% in Q3.
- Jewellery and beauty hold up (Richemont, Puig, Interparfums).
- Inditex remains our favourite in fashion retail.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Back the brands growing now, not a broad luxury recovery.
Luxury and consumer brands has slipped from one of our more positive sectors in early 2025 to below average now. The expected luxury recovery keeps being pushed back. LVMH's Fashion and Leather Goods division fell 5% in the third quarter of 2026, worse than analysts expected, with China the main drag and the Middle East conflict hurting tourist spending. The second quarter had looked like a turning point and it did not last. Higher rates and the energy shock have also weighed on European shoppers. Within the sector, the gap between brands with momentum and brands without it has widened.
Where we are positive
Jewellery and beauty have held up best. Richemont is our most consistent positive: Cartier and Van Cleef & Arpels kept growing through tariffs and currency headwinds, and we expect margins to recover over time. Puig has shown steady high single-digit growth and broadened its platform by taking full control of ISDIN, and Interparfums is returning to growth ahead of a dense launch calendar. EssilorLuxottica has a promising second growth engine in smart glasses on top of steady eyewear growth. In fashion retail, Inditex keeps pulling ahead of its peers with resilient growth and rising margins. Basic-Fit is becoming a cash story as its club network scales, and De'Longhi's professional coffee business drives profits.
Where we are cautious
The big fashion houses are where we are most careful. LVMH has swung between positive and negative views as each sign of recovery faded. Kering's turnaround is gradual and the shares are no longer cheap. Burberry's recovery has met a softer market, which slows the margin rebuild. Moncler suffers from weak store traffic. Hermès is still the strongest brand in the sector, but slower growth outside leather goods and in Asia makes it harder to justify its valuation. Beyond luxury, Beiersdorf issued a profit warning as it resets NIVEA, Puma's turnaround is unproven, Fielmann cut guidance, Swatch's margins remain weak, and H&M's growth engine still disappoints.
What the numbers say
43% of our 104 takes are positive and 20% negative. The average fell from 3.62 in early 2025 to around 3.1 in 2026. Most of our downgrades were in fashion and sportswear, and our upgrades in beauty and jewellery. We would rather own brands that are growing now than wait for a broad luxury recovery.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- De' LonghiProfessional coffee drives profits; buyout raises its stake further.
- AdidasEurope should rebound, and the shares look cheap if footwear improves.
- InterparfumsBrand recovery into Q3 with growth returning ahead of new launches.
- EssilorLuxotticaSolid eyewear growth plus smart glasses momentum; wearables add a promising new growth leg.
- BeiersdorfProfit warning; NIVEA reset weighs on 2026, with recovery spending hitting margins.
- Lanvin GroupLuxury slowdown deepens losses; turnaround still early, shares face caution.
- MonclerWeak store traffic, but encouraging product trends and a discounted valuation.
- FluidraAftermarket business is resilient, but new pool construction remains weak and slow to recover.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Valuation looks cheap8 takes3.50
- Takeovers and break-ups6 takes3.50
- Energy transition3 takes3.33
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts2 takes2.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- MonclerLuxury & consumer brandsPositive → NegativeWeak store traffic, but encouraging product trends and a discounted valuation.Latest take →
- LVMHLuxury & consumer brandsPositive → NegativeFashion weakness delays recovery; Fashion & Leather Goods drag limits H2 margins.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026De' LonghiProfessional coffee drives profits; buyout raises its stake further.
- 12 Nov 2026CEWESteady photo business preparing to integrate Kodak Moments.
- 3 Nov 2026RichemontSlower jewellery growth should be offset over time by margin recovery.
- 29 Oct 2026BICMargins are improving, but growth remains weak, making it a turnaround candidate.
- 29 Oct 2026AdidasEurope should rebound, and the shares look cheap if footwear improves.
- 27 Oct 2026HermèsLeather goods hold up, but weakness elsewhere makes stronger overall growth harder.
- 22 Oct 2026InterparfumsBrand recovery into Q3 with growth returning ahead of new launches.
- 22 Oct 2026Basic-FitMembership growth and rising cash generation make the story increasingly about cash.
The companies
Every company we cover in Luxury & consumer brands.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AdidasADS | Germany | 5 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | Europe should rebound, and the shares look cheap if footwear improves. |
| Basic-FitBFIT | Netherlands | 4 | Positive | 22 Oct 2026 | Membership growth and rising cash generation make the story increasingly about cash. |
| BeiersdorfBEI | Germany | 1 | Very negative | 4 Aug 2026 | Profit warning; NIVEA reset weighs on 2026, with recovery spending hitting margins. |
| BICBB | France | 3 | Neutral | 29 Oct 2026 | Margins are improving, but growth remains weak, making it a turnaround candidate. |
| Brunello CucinelliBC | Italy | 5 | Neutral | 23 Jun 2026 | Strong luxury growth, but valuation leaves little room for surprises. |
| BurberryBRBY | UK | 4 | Negative | 24 Sep 2026 | Recovery meets a softer luxury market, making the margin rebuild slower. |
| CCCCCC | Poland | 1 | Positive | 2 Oct 2025 | Profitability improving, with the broader turnaround narrative intact. |
| CeconomyCEC | Germany | 1 | Positive | 14 Feb 2025 | Strong holiday quarter, but growth expected to cool; margins improving. |
| CEWECWC | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Steady photo business preparing to integrate Kodak Moments. |
| De' LonghiDLG | Italy | 2 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Professional coffee drives profits; buyout raises its stake further. |
| EssilorLuxotticaEL | France | 4 | Positive | 22 Oct 2026 | Solid eyewear growth plus smart glasses momentum; wearables add a promising new growth leg. |
| Ferrari GroupFERGR | Netherlands | 4 | Positive | 17 Sep 2026 | Special dividend possible in H2 if acquisitions fail to materialise. |
| FielmannFIE | Germany | 3 | Negative | 1 Sep 2026 | Modest German improvement, with US investment and store expansion pressuring margins. |
| FluidraFDR | Spain | 1 | Negative | 20 Oct 2026 | Aftermarket business is resilient, but new pool construction remains weak and slow to recover. |
| Fnac DartyFNAC | France | 2 | Neutral | 27 Jan 2026 | Steady operator; the €36 bid offers fair, certain exit value. |
| Groupe SEBSK | France | 3 | Neutral | 1 Oct 2026 | Cost savings support earnings despite limited sales growth and a Q4 weighting. |
| H&MHMB | Sweden | 2 | Negative | 29 Jan 2026 | Cost control protects profit, but the growth engine remains underwhelming. |
| HermèsRMS | France | 2 | Neutral | 27 Oct 2026 | Leather goods hold up, but weakness elsewhere makes stronger overall growth harder. |
| HornbachHBH | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 8 Sep 2026 | Strong first half cushions unchanged guidance amid softer expected second half. |
| Hugo BossBOSS | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 4 Dec 2025 | Reset year focused on execution and cash, with growth returning in 2027. |
| InditexITX | Spain | 4 | Positive | 10 Sep 2026 | Strong sales momentum continues, though rising costs slightly pressure operating margins. |
| InterparfumsITP | France | 6 | Positive | 22 Oct 2026 | Brand recovery into Q3 with growth returning ahead of new launches. |
| KeringKER | France | 1 | Neutral | 23 Oct 2025 | Tentative rebound; turnaround is gradual and shares are no longer cheap. |
| L'OréalOR | France | 3 | Neutral | 9 Dec 2025 | Solid US momentum, but a premium valuation leaves little room for surprises. |
| Lanvin GroupLANV | China | 1 | Very negative | 2 Sep 2025 | Luxury slowdown deepens losses; turnaround still early, shares face caution. |
| LPPLPP | Poland | 1 | Neutral | 11 Jun 2026 | Profitability impresses, but Sinsay's weakness remains a key concern. |
| LVMHMC | France | 6 | Negative | 10 Sep 2026 | Fashion weakness delays recovery; Fashion & Leather Goods drag limits H2 margins. |
| MonclerMONC | Italy | 2 | Negative | 22 Oct 2026 | Weak store traffic, but encouraging product trends and a discounted valuation. |
| NEXTNXT | UK | 2 | Neutral | 7 Jan 2026 | Resilient trading, but demanding expectations leave little upside surprise left. |
| OntexONTEX | Belgium | 1 | Neutral | 19 Feb 2025 | Beat expectations on cash flow; turnaround still early, execution risk remains. |
| PuigPUIG | Spain | 4 | Positive | 22 Sep 2026 | Growth steady in Q3 led by fragrances, with tougher Q4 comparisons ahead. |
| PumaPUM | Germany | 7 | Negative | 25 Jun 2026 | Reset continues, but a durable turnaround remains unproven and sales pressured. |
| RichemontCFR | Switzerland | 6 | Neutral | 3 Nov 2026 | Slower jewellery growth should be offset over time by margin recovery. |
| RobertetRBT | France | 1 | Negative | 16 Sep 2025 | Healthy fundamentals, but sector headwinds and base effects weigh on equity. |
| Roche BoboisRBO | France | 1 | Neutral | 16 Sep 2025 | Steady margins and solid cash amid soft demand; resilience should persist. |
| SMCPSMCP | France | 1 | Positive | 2 Dec 2025 | Recovered brands now look like a takeover opportunity at undemanding multiples. |
| Swatch GroupUHR | Switzerland | 2 | Negative | 3 Feb 2026 | Volumes are recovering, but margins remain weak and unconvincing. |
| UnileverULVR | UK | 1 | Positive | 7 Oct 2025 | Ice cream spin-off sharpens focus on home and personal care. |
| ZegnaZGN | Italy | 1 | Neutral | 3 Feb 2026 | Brand momentum is improving, but mix and FX still constrain margins. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Semis & hardware, balanced.
85 takes on 25 companies, 40% positive and 23% negative.
The short version.
- Most polarised sector: 40% positive, 23% negative.
- AI demand drives the winners: ASML, BESI, ASM International, Aixtron.
- Power chips for data centres are a new engine for Infineon and ST.
- Auto and industrial chips (Melexis, X-Fab) and telecom kit still lag.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
AI demand splits the sector in two.
Semis and hardware is our most polarised sector. 40% of our takes are positive and 23% are negative, and the gap between the two groups has grown. On one side are companies that sell into AI data centres, where demand keeps outrunning supply. On the other are companies tied to cars, factories and telecom networks, where the recovery has been slow and uneven. Our average has risen from 2.77 in early 2025 to 3.67 in the second half of 2026, the biggest improvement of any sector, as more companies moved into the first group.
Where we are positive
ASML is the centre of the AI equipment story. It reported record third-quarter sales of €11.7bn, raised its 2026 guidance to €44bn to €45bn, and said planned capacity for 2027 and 2028 will fall short of customer demand, with some customers asking about deliveries into 2029 and 2030. BE Semiconductor's hybrid bonding orders are surging, ASM International's content per wafer keeps rising, and Aixtron's orders more than doubled on optical AI demand. AT&S has turned into an AI substrate supplier with long, customer-funded contracts. Power chips for data centres are a newer engine. Infineon's AI power business is booming and its guidance looks conservative, while STMicroelectronics has moved from inventory correction to a real recovery, helped by photonics. Soitec's photonics demand finally showed up in its guidance in September.
Where we are cautious
Companies tied to cars and industrial customers are still waiting. Melexis's recovery keeps slipping, X-Fab has poor visibility, and ams-OSRAM's balance sheet remains a concern. Telecom equipment is flat: Ericsson has been a repeated negative because solid execution hides a market that is not growing. 2CRSi went from an exciting AI server story to serious doubts after a short-seller attack and an auditor's refusal to give an opinion. Kontron depends on a very strong fourth quarter. Even among the winners, valuation matters: after big rallies, AT&S and Soitec have at times priced in near-perfect execution.
What the numbers say
Our 85 takes average 3.27, but recent takes are much more positive than older ones. Upgrades dominate our changes of view this year, especially at Aixtron, STMicroelectronics, Infineon and Soitec. We remain positive on the AI supply chain, but we watch for any sign that data-centre spending plans are being cut.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- InfineonAI data-centre power is booming, and guidance looks conservative with shares trading below their average.
- ASM InternationalAI-driven demand and rising content per wafer support growth; valuation attractive.
- STMicroelectronicsRecovery is accelerating, with margin gains supporting a reasonable valuation and further upside.
- SoitecPhotonics demand lifts guidance, supported by spare capacity and firmer customer commitments.
- 2CRSiAuditor refusal to opine raises serious credibility concerns; conventional valuation offers limited comfort.
- X-FabWeak quarter and poor 2026 visibility; recovery needed before confidence returns.
- MelexisRecovery slipping; expectations for 2026 need to come down.
- KontronGuidance hinges on a very strong Q4, chip supply and a Volkswagen dispute.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- AI and data centres24 takes4.12
- Valuation looks cheap4 takes4.25
- Guidance raised3 takes4.00
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- ASM InternationalSemis & hardwareNeutral → Very positiveAI-driven demand and rising content per wafer support growth; valuation attractive.Latest take →
- 2CRSiSemis & hardwareNeutral → Very negativeAuditor refusal to opine raises serious credibility concerns; conventional valuation offers limited comfort.Latest take →
- ASMLSemis & hardwareVery positive → NeutralStrong demand and upgrades lift guidance; capacity shortages could extend growth beyond current plans.Latest take →
- VusionSemis & hardwareVery positive → NegativeMargins impress, but weak orders and cash flow demand a Q4 rebound.Latest take →
- SoitecSemis & hardwareNegative → Very positivePhotonics demand lifts guidance, supported by spare capacity and firmer customer commitments.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 10 Nov 2026InfineonAI data-centre power is booming, and guidance looks conservative with shares trading below their average.
- 10 Nov 2026JenoptikSemiconductors drive results, while weaker units raise questions for the December strategy update.
- 10 Nov 2026PVA TePlaOrders are surging, but margins must follow in the fourth quarter to prove the thesis.
- 5 Nov 2026ASM InternationalAI-driven demand and rising content per wafer support growth; valuation attractive.
- 5 Nov 2026KontronGuidance hinges on a very strong Q4, chip supply and a Volkswagen dispute.
- 3 Nov 20262CRSiAuditor refusal to opine raises serious credibility concerns; conventional valuation offers limited comfort.
- 29 Oct 2026AixtronRecovery is broadening, and the discount to historical valuation looks hard to justify.
- 29 Oct 2026STMicroelectronicsRecovery is accelerating, with margin gains supporting a reasonable valuation and further upside.
The companies
Every company we cover in Semis & hardware.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2CRSiAL2SI | France | 5 | Very negative | 3 Nov 2026 | Auditor refusal to opine raises serious credibility concerns; conventional valuation offers limited comfort. |
| Adtran NetworksADTN | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 4 Nov 2025 | Genuine recovery under way, but cash consistency and durability remain unproven. |
| AixtronAIXA | Germany | 5 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | Recovery is broadening, and the discount to historical valuation looks hard to justify. |
| ams-OSRAMAMS | Austria | 1 | Negative | 18 Nov 2025 | Modest operational progress, but cash flow and balance sheet remain concerns. |
| Arm HoldingsARM | US | 2 | Very positive | 18 Jun 2026 | AI data centre push may exceed its already ambitious 2031 targets. |
| ASM InternationalASM | Netherlands | 3 | Very positive | 5 Nov 2026 | AI-driven demand and rising content per wafer support growth; valuation attractive. |
| ASMLASML | Netherlands | 6 | Neutral | 15 Oct 2026 | Strong demand and upgrades lift guidance; capacity shortages could extend growth beyond current plans. |
| AT&SATS | Austria | 6 | Positive | 15 Oct 2026 | AI-driven substrate demand transforms the model; long contracts reduce risk, but execution remains key. |
| BE Semiconductor IndustriesBESI | Netherlands | 2 | Positive | 27 Oct 2026 | Strong orders and Applied Materials' stake ease concerns; growth prospects remain largely intact. |
| EkinopsEKI | France | 3 | Neutral | 15 Jan 2026 | Near cycle low; software mix and recurrence could aid a 2026 recovery. |
| EricssonERICB | Sweden | 4 | Negative | 27 Jan 2026 | Solid execution masks a growth vacuum and a flat market outlook. |
| InfineonIFX | Germany | 9 | Very positive | 10 Nov 2026 | AI data-centre power is booming, and guidance looks conservative with shares trading below their average. |
| JenoptikJEN | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Semiconductors drive results, while weaker units raise questions for the December strategy update. |
| KontronKTN | Germany | 3 | Negative | 5 Nov 2026 | Guidance hinges on a very strong Q4, chip supply and a Volkswagen dispute. |
| LogitechLOGN | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 29 Jan 2026 | Peripherals keep growing despite PC weakness, supporting cash generation. |
| MelexisMELE | Belgium | 2 | Very negative | 5 Feb 2026 | Recovery slipping; expectations for 2026 need to come down. |
| NokiaNOKIA | Finland | 2 | Neutral | 20 Nov 2025 | Sensible reset, but expectations already priced in after the rally. |
| ProdwaysPWG | France | 1 | Neutral | 11 Sep 2025 | Margins improve, but missing disposal news keeps investors waiting; muted case. |
| PVA TePlaTPE | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Orders are surging, but margins must follow in the fourth quarter to prove the thesis. |
| SiltronicWAF | Germany | 3 | Neutral | 18 Jun 2026 | Needed capital raise; strong share price limits further upside. |
| SoitecSOI | France | 9 | Very positive | 3 Sep 2026 | Photonics demand lifts guidance, supported by spare capacity and firmer customer commitments. |
| STMicroelectronicsSTMPA | France | 7 | Very positive | 29 Oct 2026 | Recovery is accelerating, with margin gains supporting a reasonable valuation and further upside. |
| SÜSS MicroTecSMHN | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 28 Oct 2025 | Margin pressure is cyclical; HBM exposure and fundamentals remain intact. |
| VusionVU | France | 2 | Negative | 22 Sep 2026 | Margins impress, but weak orders and cash flow demand a Q4 rebound. |
| X-FabXFAB | Belgium | 3 | Very negative | 10 Feb 2026 | Weak quarter and poor 2026 visibility; recovery needed before confidence returns. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Materials & chemicals, mildly cautious.
98 takes on 37 companies, 32% positive and 22% negative.
The short version.
- Third most cautious sector, and the only one getting worse.
- European chemicals are stuck between high energy costs and weak demand.
- Consolidation is the theme: BASF and Evonik, AkzoNobel and Axalta.
- Steel has turned more positive on EU protection (Salzgitter, SSAB).
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Deals, not demand, drive the few positives.
Materials and chemicals is our third most cautious sector, and the only one where our recent takes are more negative than the earlier ones. European chemicals are caught between energy costs well above US and Asian levels, cheap imports from China and weak demand from construction and autos. The 2026 energy shock made the cost problem worse. The industry's answer is consolidation and portfolio clean-ups. BASF approached Evonik this autumn, reportedly with an offer that rose to about €24 a share, and has pledged no forced layoffs until 2032. RAG-Stiftung, which owns about 44% of Evonik, is the key holder. AkzoNobel is merging with Axalta. Most of our positive views in the sector are about these deals, not about end markets.
Where we are positive
Portfolio moves create value where markets do not. dsm-firmenich has finished its reset, and margins and cash generation are improving. AkzoNobel has the Axalta merger nearly done and is selling assets. Evonik has strong cash flow and a takeover bid in the background. K+S has a firmer potash price floor and a steadier salt business. Steel has become more positive in recent months: EU trade protection and cost savings drove three guidance raises at Salzgitter, SSAB is benefiting from strong US steel prices, and voestalpine is shifting towards railway systems and other higher-return businesses. Heidelberg Materials has recovered European margins and launched a new savings programme. Among miners, Anglo American's copper story is not yet reflected in its share price.
Where we are cautious
Building materials and construction chemicals are the weakest area. Wienerberger issued a second profit warning on weak housing, Sika lowered its growth targets, and Vicat needs higher US prices to fix margins. Solvay cut guidance on Middle East disruption, which raises questions about its dividend and debt reduction. Wacker Chemie's solar polysilicon business remains a structural problem. Symrise and Givaudan are good companies whose valuations still assume a quality premium that recent results do not fully support. Aperam and Outokumpu show that tariffs alone do not lift margins while European demand is weak, and ArcelorMittal wrote down its Ukrainian business.
What the numbers say
Only 32% of our 98 takes are positive and 22% are negative. The average has drifted from 3.36 in early 2025 to about 3.0. The trend over the last three months is worsening, driven by profit warnings in building materials and specialty chemicals. We prefer companies that are changing their portfolio over those waiting for a demand recovery.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- SalzgitterThird guidance raise as EU protection and cost savings work.
- K+SMix and salt sales carry the quarter, with cash flow to follow once investment peaks.
- Heidelberg MaterialsEuropean margins recovered and a new €300m savings programme improves the outlook.
- SIG GroupStronger margins are changing the story, making the valuation increasingly interesting.
- SolvayMiddle East disruption forces a guidance cut, raising doubts about dividends and debt reduction.
- WienerbergerSecond profit warning; housing weakness and rising costs force deeper restructuring.
- AperamTariffs alone won't lift margins until European demand recovers.
- VicatVolumes hold up, but US pricing needs a significant increase to fix margins.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Takeovers and break-ups6 takes3.67
- Valuation looks cheap3 takes3.67
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts3 takes1.67
- China weakness3 takes3.33
- Energy transition2 takes1.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- SalzgitterMaterials & chemicalsNegative → PositiveThird guidance raise as EU protection and cost savings work.Latest take →
- ArcelorMittalMaterials & chemicalsVery negative → NeutralTighter trade rules could help Fos restart pay off, though near-term demand stays weak.Latest take →
- SikaMaterials & chemicalsNegative → PositiveAdhesives, Akkim and cost programmes build growth less reliant on China.Latest take →
- voestalpineMaterials & chemicalsNegative → PositiveRailway Systems leads a shift toward high-return businesses less tied to steel cycles.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026SalzgitterThird guidance raise as EU protection and cost savings work.
- 10 Nov 2026Mayr-MelnhofGood price for packaging, but selling the stable core leaves a volatile board business.
- 10 Nov 2026EvonikHolding firm against BASF while signalling openness to talks, with a large shareholder listening.
- 10 Nov 2026OutokumpuAmericas are working, but European weakness and destocking keep earnings under pressure.
- 10 Nov 2026VicatVolumes hold up, but US pricing needs a significant increase to fix margins.
- 10 Nov 2026AperamTariffs alone won't lift margins until European demand recovers.
- 10 Nov 2026K+SMix and salt sales carry the quarter, with cash flow to follow once investment peaks.
- 5 Nov 2026Heidelberg MaterialsEuropean margins recovered and a new €300m savings programme improves the outlook.
The companies
Every company we cover in Materials & chemicals.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air LiquideAI | France | 1 | Positive | 10 Sep 2026 | DIG Airgas deepens semiconductor exposure and adds high-margin revenue. |
| AkzoNobelAKZA | Netherlands | 3 | Positive | 6 Oct 2026 | Southeast Asia sale adds cash, strengthens balance sheet and Coatings focus. |
| AmrizeAMRZ | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 22 Sep 2026 | Building Materials pricing improving, while Building Envelope faces lagged cost pressure. |
| Anglo AmericanAAL | UK | 1 | Positive | 25 Jun 2026 | Copper now drives the group, yet the share price lags that shift. |
| AntofagastaANTO | UK | 2 | Negative | 6 Oct 2026 | Copper recovery delayed to Q4, with cost pressure and Centinela labour risk. |
| AperamAPAM | Netherlands | 4 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Tariffs alone won't lift margins until European demand recovers. |
| ArcelorMittalMT | Netherlands | 5 | Neutral | 13 Oct 2026 | Tighter trade rules could help Fos restart pay off, though near-term demand stays weak. |
| AurubisNDA | Germany | 2 | Positive | 4 Dec 2025 | Solid cash generation and a clear runway as the capex phase ends. |
| BASFBAS | Germany | 6 | Neutral | 15 Oct 2026 | Evonik deal talks could revive, with RAG's openness and employment concessions, yet financing is tight. |
| BHPBHP | UK | 1 | Neutral | 18 Aug 2026 | Copper drives earnings, but falling near-term output and higher costs loom. |
| ClariantCLN | Switzerland | 3 | Neutral | 3 Nov 2026 | Operationally stable, but needs a strong Q4 to prove margin improvement. |
| CRHCRH | US | 1 | Neutral | 25 Jun 2026 | Arcosa deepens US infrastructure focus, but the purchase multiple looks full. |
| dsm-firmenichDSFIR | Netherlands | 5 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Fragrance volumes drove a raised sales guide, but shares trade near record multiples. |
| ErametERA | France | 3 | Neutral | 13 Oct 2026 | State-backed recapitalisation substantially de-risks the financing, though commodity weakness persists. |
| EvonikEVK | Germany | 6 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Holding firm against BASF while signalling openness to talks, with a large shareholder listening. |
| GivaudanGIVN | Switzerland | 4 | Neutral | 29 Jan 2026 | High-quality compounder in transition; shares need clearer visibility. |
| Heidelberg MaterialsHEI | Germany | 1 | Positive | 5 Nov 2026 | European margins recovered and a new €300m savings programme improves the outlook. |
| Hoffmann GreenALHGR | France | 3 | Positive | 7 Jan 2026 | Volumes tripled prove industrial scale; execution, not credibility, now matters most. |
| ImerysNK | France | 1 | Neutral | 31 Oct 2025 | Quiet stabilisation, cost cuts and litigation clarity support early recovery hopes. |
| K+SSDF | Germany | 5 | Positive | 10 Nov 2026 | Mix and salt sales carry the quarter, with cash flow to follow once investment peaks. |
| LanxessLXS | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 25 Sep 2025 | Envalior stake exit could significantly reset the financial profile. |
| Mayr-MelnhofMMK | Austria | 1 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Good price for packaging, but selling the stable core leaves a volatile board business. |
| OutokumpuOUT1V | Finland | 1 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Americas are working, but European weakness and destocking keep earnings under pressure. |
| Rio TintoRIO | UK | 3 | Neutral | 9 Dec 2025 | Portfolio pruning and cost cuts; well positioned if capital discipline wins. |
| Saint-GobainSGO | France | 3 | Neutral | 8 Oct 2026 | Soft volumes, resilient margins; pricing discipline matters more than market recovery. |
| SalzgitterSZG | Germany | 4 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Third guidance raise as EU protection and cost savings work. |
| SIG GroupSIGN | Switzerland | 4 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | Stronger margins are changing the story, making the valuation increasingly interesting. |
| SikaSIKA | Switzerland | 3 | Positive | 6 Oct 2026 | Adhesives, Akkim and cost programmes build growth less reliant on China. |
| SolvaySOLB | Belgium | 1 | Very negative | 20 Oct 2026 | Middle East disruption forces a guidance cut, raising doubts about dividends and debt reduction. |
| SSABSSABA | Sweden | 2 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | US steel prices drive results, and the company is managing the cycle well. |
| SymriseSY1 | Germany | 4 | Negative | 29 Oct 2026 | Volumes are improving, but margins disappoint and the valuation isn't compelling. |
| VeralliaVRLA | France | 1 | Neutral | 12 Feb 2025 | Opportunistic bid; offer looks undervalued given stronger financials. |
| VicatVCT | France | 3 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Volumes hold up, but US pricing needs a significant increase to fix margins. |
| VidralaVID | Spain | 1 | Neutral | 16 Dec 2025 | Sensible, well-priced Chilean deal adds reach but doesn't rerate the story. |
| voestalpineVOE | Austria | 2 | Positive | 24 Sep 2026 | Railway Systems leads a shift toward high-return businesses less tied to steel cycles. |
| Wacker ChemieWCH | Germany | 3 | Negative | 10 Sep 2026 | Cost cuts help chemicals, but solar polysilicon remains an unresolved structural problem. |
| WienerbergerWIE | Austria | 2 | Very negative | 6 Oct 2026 | Second profit warning; housing weakness and rising costs force deeper restructuring. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Autos & mobility, cautious.
70 takes on 30 companies, 22% positive and 31% negative.
The short version.
- Second most cautious sector: only 22% of our takes are positive.
- German premium carmakers are the main problem (BMW, Porsche, Mercedes).
- Suppliers face EV restructuring and weak European volumes.
- Bright spots sit outside car production: Sixt, Trigano, Ayvens, Jost.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
No floor yet for the German premium model.
Autos and mobility is our second most cautious sector. Only 22% of our takes are positive and 31% are negative, and the trend has not improved this year. The core problem is the German premium model. For two decades BMW, Mercedes and Porsche earned high margins by selling expensive cars to Chinese buyers. That market is shrinking for them: BMW's sales in China fell 22% in the first nine months of 2026, and on 5 November it cut its guidance for the second time this year, to an automotive margin of between minus 0.5% and plus 0.5%, against a long-term target of 8% to 10%. It is also cutting 8,000 jobs in Germany. Add US tariffs, a slower and more expensive EV transition, and an energy shock that has pushed the ECB back to raising rates, and it is hard to find a floor for earnings.
Where we are cautious
We have been negative on BMW five times, with two 'very negative' takes this year as the China weakness turned from a cycle into a structural earnings problem. Porsche has been a repeated disappointment: one profit warning after another as the EV plan was paused and rewritten. Volkswagen cut guidance on impairments, while the bigger questions about China and EV profitability remain open. The supplier base is in worse shape still. Schaeffler, Novem, OPmobility, Knaus Tabbert and Continental's ContiTech all point to the same pattern: weak European volumes, costly restructuring and little pricing power. Ferrari is the exception that proves the rule. Its pricing power is intact, but the EV launch raises real questions about the brand, and the valuation already assumes continued growth.
Where we are positive
The positives sit away from car production. Sixt raised guidance after a strong summer and trades at a low multiple for its growth. Ayvens looks undervalued, with used-car losses appearing manageable. Trigano is our most frequent positive: the motorhome maker has worked through destocking and keeps cash and margins under control, even if demand is still uneven. Truck and trailer names are more balanced. Jost raised guidance, and Daimler Truck's margins are recovering, although orders wait on new US emission rules. Among suppliers, CIE Automotive and Polytec earn credit for disciplined, selective moves.
What the numbers say
Our 70 takes average 2.86, the second lowest of all sectors. The first half of 2026 was the low point (2.59), and the second half has been only slightly better. Most of our changes of view in this sector have been downgrades. We see no reason yet to call the bottom for the German carmakers, and we prefer to look for value in mobility services and niche manufacturers.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- SixtStrong summer lifts guidance; valuation low for the growth.
- JostOrganic growth and raised guidance look credible, with EMEA margins the key watch point.
- AyvensStrong fundamentals are undervalued, with used-car losses appearing manageable.
- OPmobilitySales outperform a weak auto market, but margin pressure and restructuring remain key.
- BMWCar margin near breakeven after repeated guidance cuts; no floor yet visible.
- Knaus TabbertMargins are recovering, but the refinancing deadline outweighs everything else for now.
- SchaefflerCash generation held up, but further EV-related restructuring underlines persistent supplier pressure.
- VolkswagenGuidance cut mainly on impairments; China and EV economics matter more.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts8 takes1.75
- Energy transition7 takes1.86
- China weakness6 takes2.17
- Valuation looks cheap3 takes3.67
- Takeovers and break-ups2 takes2.50
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- OPmobilityAutos & mobilityNegative → PositiveSales outperform a weak auto market, but margin pressure and restructuring remain key.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026SixtStrong summer lifts guidance; valuation low for the growth.
- 10 Nov 2026Knaus TabbertMargins are recovering, but the refinancing deadline outweighs everything else for now.
- 10 Nov 2026Daimler TruckMargins are recovering, but orders wait on US emission rules, making investors patient.
- 10 Nov 2026JostOrganic growth and raised guidance look credible, with EMEA margins the key watch point.
- 5 Nov 2026FerrariPricing power and mix lifted guidance, but the valuation already assumes continued growth.
- 5 Nov 2026BMWCar margin near breakeven after repeated guidance cuts; no floor yet visible.
- 5 Nov 2026AUTO1Profitability improved sharply, but slower volumes and a 20x multiple limit upside.
- 5 Nov 2026GestampNorth America fell again, though the stock is cheap and the balance sheet improved.
The companies
Every company we cover in Autos & mobility.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aston MartinAML | UK | 2 | Negative | 4 Aug 2026 | Recovery possible, but the balance sheet dominates a highly speculative turnaround. |
| AUTO1AG1 | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Profitability improved sharply, but slower volumes and a 20x multiple limit upside. |
| AutolivALIV | Sweden | 1 | Neutral | 3 Feb 2025 | Cautious guidance, though margins are strong and shares trade below average. |
| AutoneumAUTN | Switzerland | 2 | Neutral | 2 Dec 2025 | Sensible, bite-sized China acquisition; no catalyst to re-rate the stock. |
| AyvensAYV | France | 1 | Positive | 29 Oct 2026 | Strong fundamentals are undervalued, with used-car losses appearing manageable. |
| BMWBMW | Germany | 5 | Very negative | 5 Nov 2026 | Car margin near breakeven after repeated guidance cuts; no floor yet visible. |
| BénéteauBEN | France | 1 | Neutral | 10 Feb 2026 | Backlog cleared and orders recovering, but sailing remains weak. |
| CIE AutomotiveCIE | Spain | 1 | Positive | 18 Dec 2025 | Aludec is a high-margin, cash-generative bolt-on fitting CIE's selective M&A approach. |
| ContinentalCON | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 3 Sep 2026 | Regional split reveals Americas as the clearest margin improvement opportunity. |
| Daimler TruckDTG | Germany | 2 | Neutral | 10 Nov 2026 | Margins are recovering, but orders wait on US emission rules, making investors patient. |
| ElringKlingerZIL2 | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 25 Nov 2025 | Credible margin plan, but restructuring risks and patience required. |
| FastnedFAST | Netherlands | 2 | Neutral | 9 Jun 2026 | Commercial reset and efficiency focus, with 2026 targets reiterated. |
| FerrariRACE | Italy | 5 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | Pricing power and mix lifted guidance, but the valuation already assumes continued growth. |
| ForviaFRVIA | France | 3 | Neutral | 3 Nov 2026 | Solid execution in a tough market, though China weakness and debt limit flexibility. |
| GestampGEST | Spain | 2 | Neutral | 5 Nov 2026 | North America fell again, though the stock is cheap and the balance sheet improved. |
| JostJST | Germany | 2 | Positive | 10 Nov 2026 | Organic growth and raised guidance look credible, with EMEA margins the key watch point. |
| Knaus TabbertKTA | Germany | 2 | Negative | 10 Nov 2026 | Margins are recovering, but the refinancing deadline outweighs everything else for now. |
| Mercedes-BenzMBG | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 15 Jan 2026 | 2026 a bridge year; cost discipline and launches set up 2027. |
| MichelinML | France | 2 | Neutral | 9 Sep 2025 | Weak volumes, but defended margins and a better 2026 earnings slope. |
| NovemNVM | Germany | 3 | Negative | 30 Jun 2026 | Cost discipline helps, but the cycle hasn't turned; re-rating unlikely yet. |
| OPmobilityOPM | France | 3 | Positive | 22 Oct 2026 | Sales outperform a weak auto market, but margin pressure and restructuring remain key. |
| PolytecPYT | Austria | 1 | Positive | 11 Dec 2025 | Disposing of loss-making UK unit is a pragmatic, long-overdue simplification step. |
| PorscheP911 | Germany | 5 | Negative | 15 Jan 2026 | Recalibration amid slower EV transition; 2026 is a transition year, not rebound. |
| SAF-HollandSFQ | Germany | 1 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2025 | Buyback signals management sees undervaluation after a profit warning and selloff. |
| SchaefflerSHA0 | Germany | 2 | Negative | 15 Oct 2026 | Cash generation held up, but further EV-related restructuring underlines persistent supplier pressure. |
| SixtSIX2 | Germany | 1 | Positive | 12 Nov 2026 | Strong summer lifts guidance; valuation low for the growth. |
| StellantisSTLAM | Italy | 3 | Neutral | 28 May 2026 | Strategy is sensible, but execution credibility must be proven before rerating. |
| TriganoTRI | France | 7 | Neutral | 24 Sep 2026 | Production stays cautious, protecting margins and cash while demand stays unclear. |
| VolkswagenVOW3 | Germany | 2 | Negative | 22 Sep 2026 | Guidance cut mainly on impairments; China and EV economics matter more. |
| VolvoVOLVB | Sweden | 3 | Neutral | 11 Jun 2026 | Diversification is real, but consensus already prices in the improvement. |
Latest take per company. Click a name to open its full history in the coverage tracker.
← All sectorsSector report
Food, drinks & retail, cautious.
64 takes on 34 companies, 18% positive and 35% negative.
The short version.
- Our most cautious sector: 35% of takes negative, 18% positive.
- Spirits are the main drag (Pernod, Rémy, Diageo).
- Pricing power is fading: volumes now matter more than price.
- Winners are focused operators: LDC, Laurent-Perrier, Glanbia, DIA.
Every take on this sector, by tone.
Average per quarter, against all sectors.
Our read
Pricing power is spent; volumes now decide.
Food, drinks and retail is our most cautious sector. Only 18% of our takes are positive and 35% are negative. For two years, consumer staples companies protected profits by raising prices faster than costs. That has run its course. Consumers in Europe, the US and China are buying less, retailers are pushing back, and companies now need volume growth, which is much harder to deliver. The energy shock and higher rates in 2026 have not helped household budgets.
Where we are cautious
Spirits are the clearest problem. Pernod Ricard's sales fell 3.9% in its last financial year, the third annual decline in a row, with the US down 14% and China down 19%. Management does not expect the US to return to growth until after 2029. Rémy Cointreau is recovering from the cognac slump, but its valuation already assumes a lot of that recovery succeeds. Diageo is cleaning up its portfolio while demand stays weak. Beer is not much better. Heineken's regional trading is uneven, and a new CEO needs to tighten execution. In chocolate, cocoa prices have fallen about 60% from their 2024 peak, but volumes have not come back yet: Lindt's growth in the first half came almost entirely from higher prices. Sugar (Südzucker, Agrana), Polish wholesale (Eurocash) and Casino are structural negatives.
Where we are positive
The positives are companies with a clear niche or a turnaround under their own control. LDC's integrated poultry model keeps delivering, and its results and 2030 targets earned a 'very positive' in May. Laurent-Perrier gains market share with margins above 25% in a weak champagne market. Glanbia is a focused nutrition business with structural tailwinds. Emmi grows in premium dairy niches, Carlsberg is lifting its outlook through Britvic synergies, and DIA's turnaround in Spain is moving from restructuring to operations. Afyren has turned from a technology story into an industrial one as its plant ramps up.
What the numbers say
Our 64 takes average 2.84, the lowest of all sectors. The low point was the second half of 2025, when the spirits downturn deepened. 2026 has been slightly better but has not changed the picture. Most of our changes of view were downgrades, including Lindt this autumn when its volume recovery was pushed out. Until volumes return, we prefer companies that can grow without raising prices.
Positioning
Where we are positive, and where we are cautious.
- Laurent-PerrierShare gains and margins above 25% stand out in a weak sector.
- LDCResults beat expectations; higher margins and 2030 targets look encouraging.
- GlanbiaFocused nutrition compounder with structural tailwinds and steady growth.
- CarlsbergBritvic synergies and cost control lift outlook, despite China weakness and leverage.
- EurocashShrinking channel and restructuring; looks like a value trap for now.
- Casino GuichardAnother restructuring that solves little; debt write-offs drive any value.
- Pernod RicardRecovery remains elusive, with India driving growth while China and the US stay weak.
- HeinekenUneven regional trading; share gains matter most; new CEO must tighten execution.
Themes
What keeps coming up.
- China weakness4 takes2.75
- Takeovers and break-ups3 takes3.33
- Profit warnings and guidance cuts3 takes2.33
- Guidance raised2 takes2.50
- Energy transition2 takes4.00
Changes of view
Where our view changed.
- Lindt & SprüngliFood, drinks & retailVery positive → NegativeVolume recovery pushed out, so pricing alone cannot sustain growth.Latest take →
Latest takes
The most recent from our editions.
- 12 Nov 2026CorbionInnovation pipeline presented while two potential bidders circle.
- 29 Oct 2026Rémy CointreauCognac is recovering, but the valuation already prices in considerable optimism.
- 20 Oct 2026Pernod RicardRecovery remains elusive, with India driving growth while China and the US stay weak.
- 8 Oct 2026HeinekenUneven regional trading; share gains matter most; new CEO must tighten execution.
- 8 Oct 2026Anheuser-Busch InBevTemporary FIFA and distribution costs pressure margins; 4-8% EBITDA target intact.
- 1 Oct 2026Lindt & SprüngliVolume recovery pushed out, so pricing alone cannot sustain growth.
- 1 Oct 2026NestléTough comparisons distort volumes; the broader recovery remains intact.
- 24 Sep 2026KWS SaatWeak Q4 reset; sales should recover, but margins will rebuild slowly.
The companies
Every company we cover in Food, drinks & retail.
| Company | Country | Takes | Sentiment | Last covered | Latest take |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AdViniALAVI | France | 1 | Positive | 16 Dec 2025 | Bold Cordier merger brings scale and export diversification without new debt. |
| AfyrenALAFY | France | 3 | Positive | 23 Jun 2026 | Ramp-up at NEOXY turns a technology story into an industrial one. |
| AgranaAGR | Austria | 3 | Neutral | 2 Jul 2026 | Restructuring gains show early traction, but sugar and sustainability remain unproven. |
| AmRestEAT | Poland | 1 | Neutral | 9 Sep 2025 | CEE strength offsets France's drag; Western Europe execution must tighten. |
| Anheuser-Busch InBevABI | Belgium | 3 | Neutral | 8 Oct 2026 | Temporary FIFA and distribution costs pressure margins; 4-8% EBITDA target intact. |
| AryztaARYN | Switzerland | 4 | Neutral | 11 Aug 2026 | Margins hold despite German weakness; savings and capital returns are planned. |
| BonduelleBON | France | 1 | Negative | 30 Sep 2025 | Profitability steady, but Europe remains a challenge; turnaround timeline uncertain. |
| CarlsbergCARLB | Denmark | 2 | Positive | 20 Aug 2026 | Britvic synergies and cost control lift outlook, despite China weakness and leverage. |
| Casino GuichardCO | France | 1 | Very negative | 2 Dec 2025 | Another restructuring that solves little; debt write-offs drive any value. |
| Coca-Cola Europacific PartnersCCEP | UK | 1 | Neutral | 17 Feb 2026 | Steady execution, but no guidance upgrade or catalyst to re-rate shares. |
| CorbionCRBN | Netherlands | 2 | Neutral | 12 Nov 2026 | Innovation pipeline presented while two potential bidders circle. |
| DIADIA | Spain | 2 | Positive | 30 Jun 2026 | Turnaround moving into operational phase; Spain-led growth could justify rerating. |
| DiageoDGE | UK | 4 | Neutral | 15 Jan 2026 | China asset review fits a broader portfolio clean-up. |
| Dino PolskaDNP | Poland | 1 | Neutral | 26 Aug 2025 | Solid expansion with rising overhead; guidance trimmed, long-term story intact. |
| Ebro FoodsEBRO | Spain | 1 | Negative | 4 Jun 2026 | External pressures weigh on margins; recovery expected later, but upgrades unlikely soon. |
| EmmiEMMN | Switzerland | 1 | Positive | 20 Aug 2026 | Premium niches drive growth; US recovery and guidance intact despite H1 pressures. |
| EurocashEUR | Poland | 3 | Very negative | 2 Dec 2025 | Shrinking channel and restructuring; looks like a value trap for now. |
| GlanbiaGLB | Ireland | 1 | Very positive | 20 Nov 2025 | Focused nutrition compounder with structural tailwinds and steady growth. |
| HeinekenHEIA | Netherlands | 2 | Negative | 8 Oct 2026 | Uneven regional trading; share gains matter most; new CEO must tighten execution. |
| Jerónimo MartinsJMT | Portugal | 1 | Neutral | 17 Jan 2025 | Q4 like-for-like rebound hints at recovery, though the environment stays tricky. |
| KWS SaatKWS | Germany | 1 | Negative | 24 Sep 2026 | Weak Q4 reset; sales should recover, but margins will rebuild slowly. |
| Lanson-BCCALLAN | France | 1 | Neutral | 11 Sep 2025 | Volumes under pressure despite higher prices; visibility limited, fundamentals intact. |
| Laurent-PerrierLPE | France | 1 | Very positive | 2 Jun 2026 | Share gains and margins above 25% stand out in a weak sector. |
| LDCLOUP | France | 2 | Very positive | 28 May 2026 | Results beat expectations; higher margins and 2030 targets look encouraging. |
| Lindt & SprüngliLISN | Switzerland | 2 | Negative | 1 Oct 2026 | Volume recovery pushed out, so pricing alone cannot sustain growth. |
| Magnum Ice Cream CompanyMICC | Netherlands | 1 | Neutral | 5 Feb 2026 | First standalone results must establish reporting credibility and margin trajectory. |
| Marie Brizard Wine & SpiritsMBWS | France | 1 | Negative | 30 Sep 2025 | France remains the weak link; holding pattern until profitability recovers. |
| NestléNESN | Switzerland | 1 | Neutral | 1 Oct 2026 | Tough comparisons distort volumes; the broader recovery remains intact. |
| Pernod RicardRI | France | 4 | Negative | 20 Oct 2026 | Recovery remains elusive, with India driving growth while China and the US stay weak. |
| Rémy CointreauRCO | France | 7 | Neutral | 29 Oct 2026 | Cognac is recovering, but the valuation already prices in considerable optimism. |
| SavenciaSAVE | France | 2 | Neutral | 23 Sep 2025 | Sales steady, but cost pressure squeezes profits; merger could broaden premium reach. |
| Sphera Franchise GroupSFG | Romania | 1 | Negative | 26 May 2026 | Sales recovering, but rising costs squeeze margins and make targets look hard. |
| SüdzuckerSZU | Germany | 1 | Negative | 26 May 2026 | Sharp cyclical reset in FY25-26; guidance held, but visibility remains limited. |
| Vranken-PommeryVRAP | France | 1 | Negative | 16 Sep 2025 | Debt is the main worry; recovery plausible, but caution until leverage eases. |
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