Parcel lockers, security systems and airplanes
InPost, Lanvin Group, Transport Trade Services, ING, Dormakaba, eDreams ODIGEO, SMA Solar Technology
InPost (INPST Netherlands): growth holds up as integration noise masks the core trajectory
InPost’s latest quarter reads like a classic “good business, noisy numbers” update. Parcels kept climbing at a healthy clip, with group volumes up more than 20% year on year and revenue growing even faster. Yodel’s consolidation was the single biggest swing factor in profitability.
Group adjusted EBITDA was broadly in line, but the margin stepped down versus last year because bringing a large, previously separate network onto the platform is messy by design. That said, the underlying picture in Poland, the engine room, stayed reassuring: volumes advanced, locker utilization remained at solid levels, and the segment margin actually improved into the high-40s range on the updated guidance, a small but telling data point about how resilient the core model remains.
Internationally, the cadence is what you’d hope for at this stage of expansion: lots of hardware going into the ground and fast-rising volumes, followed by a period of digestion as scale economics catch up. The U.K. and Ireland added a thousand-plus APMs quarter on quarter and tripled revenue year on year, but the integration math pulled margins down (temporarily). The Eurozone, led by Mondial Relay, pushed volumes higher and benefited from mix and operating leverage, yet higher SG&A—particularly in sales and IT—soaked up much of the gain, leaving margins flat.
Management’s guidance tweaks reflect that balance: a notch lower on Polish and Eurozone volume growth labels, a notch higher on Polish margins, and more lockers and capex to feed the flywheel.
But if there remains a shadow over the near term, it’s the chatter about competition in Poland. That narrative will probably stick around until the market sees a few more quarters of data, especially through 2026, but it risks missing the bigger point: InPost continues to deepen its moat with denser locker coverage, improving customer convenience and unit economics at the same time. Meanwhile, the international mix is rising quickly, which naturally dilutes any single-market anxiety.
The noise will fade; the network effects won’t.
Lanvin Group (LANV US): Luxury slowdown leaves brands searching for momentum
Lanvin Group’s first-half release showed just how challenging the luxury market has become. Group sales fell by more than a fifth, with China down nearly half and Europe also sharply lower. Wholesale remains weak, and management has pulled back from several direct-to-consumer outlets, further weighing on topline growth. The consequence was a significant deterioration in profitability: gross margin contracted, contribution margins turned further negative, and adjusted EBITDA losses deepened.
The numbers highlight how fragile the group’s positioning remains at a time when broader luxury demand is softening and the turnaround of its brand portfolio is still in early stages.
Performance across the five brands was uneven but uniformly pressured. Flagship Lanvin itself saw sales nearly halved as the market adopts a wait-and-see stance before the debut of a new collection. Wolford continues to suffer from distribution upheaval, while Sergio Rossi’s results slipped as its relaunch under a new designer is still to come. Caruso and St. John fared slightly better, with sales declines more modest and profitability less impaired, but neither is strong enough to offset the group’s broader weakness. With wholesale orders under strain and brand repositioning still underway, the road to positive EBITDA has pushed further out.
Management, for its part, is focused on operational fixes rather than quick wins. The priorities for the second half include tightening distribution, enhancing collections, and launching targeted marketing campaigns. Strategic partnerships are also on the agenda as the group looks to stabilise revenues.
Yet the reality remains that without a visible inflection in demand, investors will likely continue to view the shares with caution. Momentum across most brands is fragile, visibility on recovery is limited, and the luxury cycle itself is not particularly supportive.
Until Lanvin can prove traction in its relaunches, the market will probably remain skeptical of a near-term turnaround.
Transport Trade Services (TTS Romania): Cargo rerouting and weak tariffs weigh on results
Transport Trade Services delivered a tough set of second-quarter figures, showing how quickly external shocks can hit a logistics-heavy business. Revenues dropped mid-teens, profitability collapsed into the red, and net results swung to a loss. The culprit was a steep decline in agricultural cargo volumes, down nearly 60% year-on-year, as Ukrainian exports were rerouted away from Constanta and toward deep-sea ports. With tariffs also under pressure due to overcapacity in the market, the double hit of weaker volumes and lower pricing proved too much to offset. For context, the year-ago quarter was still benefiting from unusually high transit flows, making the comparison even harsher.
The composition of volumes tells the story. Agricultural exports were sharply lower, dragging overall tonnage down despite healthy growth in minerals and chemicals. Cost controls helped soften the blow—expenses were cut by around 10% year-on-year through salary and maintenance savings—but not enough to rescue margins. EBITDA fell by nearly a third, and operating profit dipped into negative territory.
What stands out is how quickly the market dynamics have shifted: a company used to riding steady agricultural flows is now grappling with volatility from geopolitics and trade rerouting.
Faced with this backdrop, management cut full-year guidance. Revenue expectations have been reduced, EBITDA projections trimmed, and the company now points to the middle of a lowered range.
Investors will be watching closely how the company adapts its model: whether through more diversified cargo exposure, tighter cost discipline, or better alignment of capacity with the new trade routes. For now, the external environment remains the main headwind, and the near-term outlook is for continued turbulence rather than recovery.
ING Group (ING Netherlands): Solid quarter, cautious guidance, and capital return ahead
ING’s second-quarter results were broadly in line with expectations, even if the composition of earnings shifted a little. Net interest income was lighter than anticipated due to narrower liability margins, but this was offset by stronger commission income and better cost control. Operating expenses benefited from ongoing efficiency measures—branch rationalisation, use of GenAI in compliance processes, and general optimisation—helping to keep the bottom line on track. The message from management was cautious but constructive: recurring earnings are stable, and cost discipline is becoming more visible.
The group nudged down its full-year guidance for net interest income, reflecting the stronger euro and ongoing deposit competition. But ING’s own guidance looks conservative. With the German bonus-rate campaign now ended and the yield curve more favourable, there is room for net interest income to surprise on the upside in the second half. Likewise, cost expectations have been lowered slightly as efficiency gains continue to flow through. Combined with lower loan-loss assumptions following the EU-US trade deal, the earnings base looks resilient, even in a more challenging rate environment.
Perhaps most significant for shareholders, ING reiterated its intention to return excess capital. With a CET1 ratio expected to finish the year close to 13%, the group has ample headroom. Market consensus is building around an additional €2.5 billion share buyback announcement alongside third-quarter results, which would bring capital ratios neatly to management’s target range by year-end.
In short, the quarter showed a bank that is balancing conservatism in guidance with underlying strength in execution—and is positioned to keep rewarding investors through capital returns.
Dormakaba (DOKA Switzerland): steady execution, tighter cash discipline, and patience on capital returns
Dormakaba closed its fiscal year with the kind of solid, unspectacular delivery that long-term compounders are built on. Organic growth landed within the targeted range, pricing did what it was supposed to do, and volumes moved up modestly despite decelerating end markets in Germany and North America.
The real progress was on profitability: the adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by around 80 basis points, exactly in line with the plan, powered by a friendlier price-cost balance and the continuing transformation program. By June, management had already banked the majority of its cost savings target, and the P&L is starting to show the compounding effect—slightly better gross margins, a little more operating leverage, and sturdier cash generation even as inventories and project timing move around.
If investors winced anywhere, it was on the dividend. The increase was there, but not the one the market had penciled in. Management’s choice is consistent with the broader playbook: keep balance sheet flexibility intact and preserve dry powder for acquisitions, particularly in the U.S., where bolt-ons can accelerate growth and fill product and channel gaps.
Looking into the new fiscal year, the setup is deliberately conservative: organic growth again in the low-to-mid single digits, EBITDA margin edging past 16%, and a reiteration of capital efficiency targets. Consensus doesn’t need to move much because the company already telegraphed the path, but the interest is in the cadence—how quickly margin gains show up in H1, what mix of price versus volume underpins that, and whether regional normalization in Germany and the U.S. holds.
None of this is spectacular, and that’s the point: the story here is a high-quality security and access business grinding out better economics, tightening cash discipline, and staying selective on capital returns until the next round of portfolio moves lines up. It’s slow and careful, but it adds up.
eDreams ODIGEO (EDR Spain): subscription engine keeps humming as guidance stays firm
eDreams’ quarter lands right where management said it would: top-line growth modest, cash revenue shaped by the mix between Prime and non-Prime, and cash EBITDA stepping higher with improving margins.
The pivot that has defined the company for the past few years—the shift from episodic transaction income toward a subscription-anchored model—continues to play out. Prime membership climbed again, Prime revenue margin expanded, and the overall cash EBITDA margin moved up a few points despite softer non-Prime monetization. That’s exactly how a subscription flywheel looks at scale: invest to grow the member base, deliver more value per subscriber, and let operating leverage trickle through the P&L.
The nuance this time is the headline split between “revenues” and “cash revenues,” which reflects the accounting of Prime’s contribution. It can make the optics choppy quarter to quarter, but underneath, the economics are trending the right way: more members, better retention, fatter margins on the subscription cohort. Add to that disciplined cost control and a clear corridor for marketing spend, and you get a model that’s less sensitive to the whims of travel seasonality than it used to be.
The company’s decision to trim free cash flow guidance for the year to account for taxes looks prudent rather than problematic; the big strategic guideposts remain unchanged, including the March 2026 cash EBITDA target and the path to more than eight million Prime members.
The bigger picture hasn’t shifted: eDreams is leaning into a premium, membership-led approach in an industry still dominated by transactional thinking. That creates a valuation debate the company won’t settle in a single quarter, but the operating logic is sound—subscriptions stabilize demand, lift lifetime value, and make marketing dollars work harder over time.
With guidance reiterated and the subscriber base still compounding, the next checkpoints are straightforward—keep adding members, keep nudging margins, and let the cash engine catch up as the cohort matures. It’s not flashy, but it’s exactly how durable consumer internet businesses grow up.
SMA Solar Technology (S92 Germany): restructuring highlights fragility in home and business
SMA Solar dropped a profit warning that pulled the rug from under a stock that had been quietly climbing all year. The company now expects to swing to a loss in 2025, with EBITDA between –€80 million and –€30 million instead of the healthy profit once guided.
Sales are also being nudged down a touch, but the real story is not top line—it’s the implosion of the home and business solutions segment. Weak demand has left inventories bloated and fixed costs uncovered, forcing SMA to take a brutal set of write-downs: impairments on stock, R&D, and even production lines that together will total up to €220 million. That reset may be “one-off” in accounting terms, but it underscores how fragile this division really is when volumes falter.
The promise now is over €100 million in annual cost savings once the restructuring measures bed in, which is not insignificant given the scale of the current earnings hole. Still, investors have to weigh those savings against the depth of the cutbacks: the home and business solutions unit remains structurally challenged, facing soft demand, price pressure, and an inability to absorb fixed costs. That reality makes the road back to profitability look slower than many had hoped, particularly with 2026 guidance now shading lower too.
The market had been willing to look past these risks earlier in the year, helping the share price soar by more than 60% year to date. This warning punctures that optimism and reminds everyone that SMA’s exposure to residential and small commercial solar is far from a smooth ride. Utility and industrial projects may provide ballast, but the consumer-facing side is the weak link, and it just forced a painful reset.
Longer term, the technology and brand still matter, but in the near term, it’s restructuring, execution, and whether SMA can steady its home and business arm that will dictate sentiment. This isn’t the end of the story, but it is a harsh reminder that the path for solar hardware players is rarely linear.
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si why edreams never talks about churn rate? big scam