Fast fashion, new & old energy and RVs
Ferrari Group, Carbios, Vogo, Trigano, H&M, Lanxess, Guerbet, Synergie, Crit, Arverne Group, TotalEnergies, MFE, Grenergy Renovables, IDI, Infotel
At Lux Opes, we break down the latest company news into quick takes that get straight to the point—what happened, why it matters, and what to watch next.
We publish 2-4 times per week, depending on the news flow.
Ferrari Group (FERGR Italy): A noisy half-year but steady outlook
Ferrari Group’s first half of 2025 was marked by some noise, with results clouded by a one-off provision, yet the underlying story remains largely intact.
Revenue inched forward, supported by resilience across Europe, the Americas, and Brazil, though weakness in China pulled on momentum. The headline, however, was a non-cash provision linked to an ongoing customs investigation in Italy, which dragged reported earnings lower than expected. Stripping that out, performance was in line with forecasts, underlining that the core business is moving broadly as planned despite regional divergence in customer demand and macro uncertainty.
Management’s tone on the rest of the year seems reassuring. They anticipate a clear acceleration in growth, a return to more normal profitability patterns, and stable capital expenditure. The full-year guidance for margins was reiterated, a crucial signal at a time when investors were on edge about the noise from provisions and slower cash generation in the half.
The message was simple: underlying operations are healthy, and Ferrari is sticking to its roadmap. For a brand steeped in reputation and performance, such consistency is vital in maintaining trust while navigating regulatory hurdles and uneven regional markets.
Ferrari Group still envisions steady mid-single digit revenue growth over the medium term, with sustained margins and disciplined capital allocation.
While the first half was messier than anticipated, the decision to draw a line under the provision shows management’s intent to clear the decks and focus on execution. With its global footprint, disciplined cost base, and strong positioning in premium segments, Ferrari is signaling that the fundamentals remain sound even as short-term headlines obscure the picture.
Carbios (ALCRB France): Waiting for clarity on the factory restart
Carbios’ half-year update was broadly as expected, but the main story continues to revolve around its industrial ambitions. The company remains in a loss-making phase, with modest revenue and operating results weighed down by impairments and restructuring. The temporary halt in capex did help cash outflows narrow, leaving Carbios with a healthier balance sheet than many might have feared.
It is clear, however, that the Longlaville plant remains the decisive piece of the puzzle. The group has now pushed the restart of construction to the end of 2025, with commissioning not expected before late 2027. This delay reflects the difficulty of securing all the necessary financing, though negotiations with banks and public support packages are underway.
At the same time, Carbios is laying the groundwork commercially, signing supply and polymerisation contracts while pre-marketing its recycled plastics to customers who stand to benefit from recently introduced regulatory incentives in France. These preparatory steps are critical for anchoring the project in firm demand before committing further capital.
What Carbios needs most now is visibility. Investors are waiting for confirmation that enough long-term customers are lined up and that financing is locked to bring the flagship plant to life. Without that, the story will remain in a holding pattern.
Yet with regulators leaning heavily toward incentivising recycled content, and Carbios already positioned as a technological frontrunner, the medium-term opportunity remains significant - once the financing hurdle is cleared.
Vogo (ALVGO France): Transition pains overshadow momentum
This micro-cap’s first half underscored the strain of transition. Revenue dipped and operating losses widened, with EBITDA flat despite improvements in gross margin and stable operating costs. The shift to a “technology as a service” model is beginning to show benefits, particularly in gross profitability, but the accounting impact of increased R&D amortisation dragged the bottom line deeper into the red. Cash is holding up for now, though leverage remains a concern.
Management remains upbeat on the commercial front, particularly in sports and industrial markets. FIFA certifications have boosted momentum, and new contracts are beginning to come through, which should keep top-line activity moving in the second half.
Yet the financial trajectory could force expectations to be revised lower for the year, a reminder that the road to scaling this business model profitably is still uncertain. At the same time, there;s the ABEO takeover bid for the majority of the company’s shares, opening a speculative angle that could dominate attention in the short term.
The challenge lies in bridging its promising technology and partnerships with sustainable financial performance. The model shift to recurring services offers long-term appeal, but near-term strain is evident in the numbers.
With external pressures mounting and the outcome of the ABEO bid looming, the coming months will be decisive in determining whether the company can balance growth ambitions with financial discipline.
Trigano (TRI France): Order momentum brightens outlook despite softer year-end
Trigano closed its fiscal year on a slightly weaker note, with fourth-quarter sales coming in just below market expectations and motorhomes weighing on the performance. Dealers across Europe have been cautious in reducing stock levels, while regulatory changes around engine standards also distorted comparisons. Caravans were particularly soft, while the leisure equipment division held up better but still declined.
It was not an easy backdrop, and the year as a whole ended with revenue down mid-single digits on a like-for-like basis. Still, the underlying theme was less about a cyclical lull and more about distributors adjusting to new realities after several years of strong demand.
Margins tell a slightly better story. Excluding accounting charges tied to the Bio Habitat acquisition, profitability held up better than feared, with the second half showing improvement compared with the first. Free cash flow generation remained robust, giving the group ample flexibility to navigate short-term softness.
More importantly, the first signals for the new season are encouraging. The big European trade fairs in Düsseldorf and Parma confirmed that customer appetite for 2026 is strong, with orders running at double-digit growth and pricing holding firm. That suggests the company’s brands, from motorhomes to equipment, continue to command loyalty even in a competitive market where discounting could have easily taken hold.
Looking ahead, the setup for 2026 looks healthier: dealer inventories appear balanced, the order book is robust and the group’s positioning in higher-value models should support margins.
Trigano has proven over the years that it can manage through cyclical swings while maintaining strong balance sheet discipline. With the industry backdrop stabilising and pricing power intact, management’s confidence in a return to growth next season seems well placed.
H&M (HM-B Sweden): Margins surprise, but top-line struggles persist
H&M’s latest results delivered an upside surprise on profitability, but the underlying issue of sluggish growth remains unresolved. Revenues for the third quarter reflected a flat trend over the summer months. The gross margin, however, came in stronger than anticipated, supported by cost discipline and a somewhat cleaner product mix. Operating profit jumped sharply as a result, offering a reminder that the group can still extract efficiencies when conditions allow.
Yet this recovery followed a period of weakness, and the sustainability of such gains without stronger sales momentum is uncertain. The immediate trading outlook remains muted. September sales were flat year-on-year, held back by tough comparisons, and expectations for the fourth quarter hinge on a rebound in October and November.
H&M itself has highlighted an improved customer offering as the driver of its margin recovery, but the structural question persists: can the brand deliver the consistent top-line growth needed to support long-term operating leverage? The company has struggled with limited pricing power and a product appeal that is often considered less differentiated than peers, and these challenges will not be solved by one quarter of cost savings.
In the bigger picture, H&M’s position contrasts sharply with its main rival, Inditex, which continues to expand with a more compelling fashion proposition and a faster supply chain. For H&M, the reliance on efficiency gains rather than sustained growth leaves it vulnerable.
While shareholders may welcome the short-term earnings beat, the lack of visibility on sustainable top-line momentum keeps the story fragile. The market remains unconvinced that the brand has found the formula to reignite growth, and until that changes, profitability improvements will be seen as temporary patches rather than a durable turnaround.
Lanxess (LXS Germany): Preparing to cash in on Envalior stake
Lanxess has taken an important step in clarifying its path to monetising its stake in Envalior, its joint venture with Advent. The company announced it will exercise its right to offer its 41% holding to its partner in 2026, putting a timeline around a deal that had long been anticipated but not formalised. Advent will need to confirm its financing capacity by March 2026, but management has expressed confidence that the private equity group will be in a position to complete the purchase.
For Lanxess, this sets up the possibility of a significant cash inflow within six months of that date, marking real progress in its deleveraging and portfolio simplification agenda.
The details of the valuation structure provide comfort. The exit is tied to an equity value of €1.2 billion if Envalior’s earnings meet a defined range, with some downside risk if performance slips below thresholds but little dependence on the joint venture’s debt load. Management has pointed to stabilising earnings in the venture, with early signs of recovery from last year’s trough, which should help underpin valuations.
On top of that, Lanxess expects repayment of a shareholder loan by 2028, adding further value over time. Together, the equity stake and loan could represent a sizeable proportion of the group’s current market capitalisation, offering investors clearer visibility on potential returns.
Still, operational challenges remain in the core chemicals business, where demand and pricing continue to be difficult. Earnings guidance has been trimmed, and the recovery is likely to be gradual.
Yet the Envalior exit could be a game-changer in resetting the financial profile, freeing up resources, and reducing leverage. By shedding exposure to a joint venture that had weighed on visibility, Lanxess would not only strengthen its balance sheet but also reorient the group towards businesses where it can build a more consistent performance base.
Guerbet (GBT France): Searching for a way out of a difficult transition
Guerbet’s latest update comes just days after its profit warning and confirms how deep the company’s current challenges run.
Revenue drifted lower, operating income collapsed, and net profit barely stayed in positive territory, leaving investors wondering when the business will turn the corner. Cost control was not the issue - management managed to trim payroll and external expenses - but margins still fell sharply as the company struggled with weaker demand in France and an unfavorable customer mix in the US. Together, these markets account for nearly a third of sales, and their problems go right to the heart of Guerbet’s model.
The French business is grappling with the impact of new supply rules that have disrupted manufacturing lines, while in the US the shift toward distributors has diluted profitability. Management’s response has been to double down on its core business lines while pushing harder into interventional imaging, one of the few growth engines still firing.
At the same time, debt levels remain high, limiting room for maneuver. This is why the board is stressing the urgency of a recovery plan, with cash generation and financial solidity now front and center. Yet uncertainty hangs over every element of this story: from the speed at which French operations can adapt, to whether US margins can be rebuilt, and how much further costs can realistically be cut.
Beyond the numbers, Guerbet is also in the middle of a leadership transition that clouds the outlook further. The search for a new CEO has already begun, but the direction they take will matter enormously - whether it’s a recovery built internally, a repositioning of the portfolio, or even industry consolidation.
With family ownership and a portfolio that overlaps with peers like Bracco, speculation of a tie-up lingers in the background. For now, though, the company is caught in a difficult limbo: visibility is limited, pressure is mounting, and while a new strategy may eventually emerge, the timing and scope remain unclear.
Synergie (SDG France): Resilience proves its strength in a weak market
Synergie’s H1 results showed just how resilient the company can be in a market that continues to test the entire temporary work sector. While activity was broadly flat on an organic basis, margins held up well and profitability outperformed expectations. In France, revenue slipped slightly but still managed to beat the broader industry trend, which has been weighed down by softness in automotive and other exposed sectors. Abroad, southern Europe provided a welcome boost, with Spain and Italy delivering growth that offset weaker trends in northern and eastern markets.
Margins were remarkably steady, with EBITDA in line with last year and the operating margin giving up only a fraction despite higher amortization charges. This strength comes from Synergie’s diversification — both by geography and by customer base — which allows the company to cushion sector-specific downturns.
The balance sheet is another anchor of stability, with a large net cash position giving management freedom to continue investing and to pursue acquisitions. At a time when many peers are retrenching, Synergie is showing that it can continue to play offense.
Looking ahead, management is keeping its full-year targets intact, a sign of confidence in its ability to maintain momentum through the rest of the year. The environment for staffing remains tough, but Synergie has consistently shown that it can outperform its sector by staying close to its clients and adjusting its exposure to volatile markets.
With cash reserves strong and operations diversified, the group is positioned not just to weather the storm but to take advantage when opportunities arise. Stability, reliability, and disciplined growth remain its trademarks in an industry often marked by volatility.
Crit (CEN France): Strong execution despite a softer temporary work market
Crit’s latest results underline the group’s resilience in what has been a challenging backdrop for the staffing sector. Revenue jumped by double digits, boosted by the integration of Openjobmetis, though organic activity slipped modestly. Margins came under pressure from higher depreciation and currency effects, leaving profits below expectations.
Even so, the group’s ability to maintain solid operating performance while expanding its footprint across geographies highlights the benefit of its diversified model. France remains the anchor, where Crit continues to outperform the broader market, while Italy and Spain are proving steady contributors. Conditions in the US remain trickier, particularly in sectors like automotive and logistics, where trade frictions weigh on demand.
Despite softer organic trends, the group’s profitability has been shored up by its acquisitions, and the underlying margin dynamics across divisions remain stable. Temporary work, which represents the bulk of the business, held margins steady, while the airport services division also delivered a resilient showing.
This consistency reflects management’s disciplined cost control and its capacity to manage cyclicality across different geographies and sectors. However, higher financial charges and amortisation temper the short-term picture, reminding investors that expansion via M&A inevitably carries upfront costs before synergies fully materialise.
Crit appears well positioned to navigate a market that remains uncertain but not collapsing. Dealer inventories in France are healthy, and southern Europe continues to offer a pocket of growth, offsetting the weakness in the US. The company’s balance sheet strength, with a solid net cash position, provides room for manoeuvre in a consolidating industry.
Arverne Group (ARVEN France): Delivering while scaling the energy transition
Arverne is a young energy company rapidly gaining traction. Revenues more than doubled, helped by a mix of drilling projects and service contracts, while the cost base expanded as headcount rose to support the ramp-up. Losses remain substantial, reflecting the early stage of operations, but the company continues to execute against its roadmap.
Importantly, progress at the flagship LDF project is visible, with drilling scheduled to begin shortly and demonstrator units already under construction. These milestones are critical, not only in proving out the technology but also in securing future financing and commercial partnerships.
Alongside operational delivery, Arverne is deepening its strategic control of LDF through capital increases, bringing Equinor alongside as a partner while increasing its own stake. This enhances governance and ensures the group retains leadership as the project enters its pre-industrial phase. At the same time, Arverne is pressing forward with geothermal projects in France, with work already under way on heating networks near Paris.
These efforts tie directly into the company’s mission of scaling renewable heat solutions and reducing reliance on fossil fuels in urban areas. The regulatory backdrop, particularly incentives for recycled and low-carbon materials, is providing additional tailwinds.
For investors, the significance lies not so much in current earnings, but more in Arverne’s ability to hit its ambitious development milestones on time and within budget. With guidance for strong revenue growth confirmed and an order book that is steadily expanding, the company is laying the foundations for a meaningful scale-up over the next few years.
The energy transition requires both patient capital and proven execution, and Arverne is beginning to show it can deliver on both fronts.
TotalEnergies (TTE France): A dual listing to match global ambitions
TotalEnergies has taken another step in reshaping its profile with the approval of a US listing, a move that could broaden its investor base and potentially narrow the valuation gap with American peers. The plan will see ADRs converted into ordinary shares listed in New York, alongside the existing Paris listing, improving liquidity and visibility in the world’s deepest capital market. The timing is notable, coming just before the company’s CMD, and underscores management’s confidence in the group’s ability to compete globally not only in production but also in capital markets.
Alongside this structural shift, the board has decided to recalibrate its shareholder returns. Share buybacks will be reduced, with the emphasis shifting towards maintaining balance sheet strength in the face of commodity volatility. This does not change the broader strategy of targeting growth through LNG and renewables, with production set to rise by 4% toward 2030.
The dividend policy remains firmly in place, aligned with free cash flow, reinforcing the group’s commitment to stable cash returns even as it balances the needs of reinvestment and deleveraging. In essence, the message is clear: resilience first, distributions second, but both sustained.
The combination of a stronger balance sheet, robust project pipeline, and improved market access through the US listing represents a powerful cocktail for TotalEnergies. With the sector facing questions about the longevity of oil and gas demand, the company is positioning itself as one of the most credible integrated players, blending traditional upstream strength with genuine renewables growth.
MFE (MFEA Italy): Advertising resilience in Italy but mounting pressures abroad
MFE’s latest results highlight the company’s ability to hold its ground in Italy, where advertising trends remain more supportive than in neighboring markets.
Italian revenues managed to grow modestly, thanks to the broadcaster’s dominant market position and ability to sustain pricing, even in a competitive environment. Spain, however, continues to be a drag, reflecting both a tougher macro backdrop and a weaker advertising cycle. While management has avoided painting too rosy a picture, the divergence between Italy’s relative strength and Spain’s ongoing softness underscores the challenge of balancing exposure across different geographies.
The bigger question looming is Germany, where MFE’s pending integration of Pro7Sat1 introduces an additional layer of uncertainty. Germany’s advertising market has been under pressure, with broadcasters there already flagging slowing trends, and MFE will inevitably be pulled into that dynamic.
For now, the company is guiding toward a positive year on EBIT and cash flow versus 2024, but it is clear that much of the optimism rests on Italy’s ability to continue delivering against headwinds elsewhere. Spain remains particularly problematic, and there is little visibility on when conditions will stabilize.
Strategically, MFE finds itself at a crossroads. Its strengths—scale in Italy, efficiency in cost management, and resilience in pricing—are well established, but the structural headwinds in Spain and Germany leave little room for error.
The group’s cautious approach to guidance, coupled with the decision to hold off on detailed commentary until later in the year, signals a company bracing for volatility. Investors will be watching closely how the Pro7Sat1 integration unfolds, as this will determine whether MFE can emerge as a more balanced European media player or remain overly reliant on its home market.
Grenergy Renovables (GRE Spain): Building momentum in storage while core business delivers
Grenergy’s second quarter results showed a business performing steadily, if unspectacularly, with profits lifted by capital gains from asset sales. While these divestments have long been part of the company’s model, the more interesting story is its ongoing push into standalone storage, where the Greenbox unit is expected to become a meaningful contributor in the coming years. The first major tolling agreement for the Oviedo project in Spain is expected before year-end, setting the stage for construction in 2026 and commissioning in 2027. This would mark the company’s transition from pilot projects to industrial-scale storage, an area set to account for around a fifth of group earnings by 2028.
In the core divisions, Grenergy continues to post reliable growth. The Develop & Construct unit benefited from steady project delivery, while the Energy segment held up despite softer conditions, particularly in Spain. Corporate costs remain high, but broadly in line with expectations, suggesting the group is managing its growth investments with discipline.
Importantly, leverage remains under control, even with substantial capex commitments ahead. Management’s decision to confirm guidance reflects confidence that the planned asset disposals and pipeline execution will keep balance sheet risks in check.
The medium-term picture for Grenergy is one of diversification. The company is positioning itself as not only a renewables developer but also a key player in the energy storage market across Spain, Germany, and Italy. This dual focus allows it to capture value across the energy transition, while its capital-light model of recycling assets supports growth without overextending.
The success of Greenbox projects, beginning with Oviedo, will be pivotal in proving this strategy can deliver sustainable returns, and in validating Grenergy’s claim to be at the forefront of Europe’s shift to flexible, low-carbon power systems.
IDI (IDIP FP): Steady rotation and solid capacity underpin resilience
IDI’s first-half update reinforced its reputation as a disciplined and opportunistic investor, even in a tougher market. Net asset value ticked up modestly, a reflection not only of portfolio resilience but also of the group’s ability to generate value through selective investments and timely disposals.
The acquisition of Intesoft Electronics highlights IDI’s willingness to back niche technology players, while the build-up deals for Natural Grass and Freeland show a continued focus on strengthening existing platforms. At the same time, the partial exit and reinvestment in CDS Groupe underscores the firm’s knack for crystallizing returns while keeping a foot in promising assets.
The group’s capacity to act remains one of its key strengths. With more than €200m of dry powder and access to undrawn credit lines, IDI can move quickly when opportunities arise. Recent moves, such as the majority stake in software company Forsk and support for the Ekosport retail chain, show a diversified approach across sectors and geographies.
This flexibility is especially valuable in the current environment, where broader M&A activity remains subdued and many peers are constrained by financing.
IDI’s challenge is maintaining momentum. The firm’s relatively concentrated portfolio means each transaction matters, and the ability to execute rotations that unlock value will determine whether NAV growth can outpace the modest gains seen so far. Still, the combination of a strong capital base, proven track record, and steady deal flow positions IDI well to keep navigating volatility.
Infotel (INF France): Steady performance as momentum begins to recover
Infotel’s H1 results showed resilience in a tough operating environment, showing that the company can maintain profitability even as revenue trends remain soft. Sales dipped slightly on an organic basis, yet good cost control and a stronger contribution from software helped offset the weakness in services. The operating margin held broadly stable, with adjusted EBIT only marginally down year-on-year, underscoring the benefits of a more balanced business mix.
Software growth of over 20% not only lifted overall profitability but also highlighted Infotel’s ability to lean on higher-value activities when demand in its core IT services slows. The group also maintained a robust financial profile, with over €100 million in net cash despite dividend payments, leaving it well equipped to navigate near-term uncertainty.
Looking forward, management struck a cautious but constructive tone, pointing to early signs of recovery, particularly within the banking sector. The second half of the year is expected to show both modest revenue growth and sequential margin improvement, aided by seasonal patterns and the ramp-up of major projects like BPCE’s ORION program. In addition, stabilization in aerospace work with Airbus should help reduce volatility.
The company continues to benefit from cost discipline, improved utilization rates, and savings initiatives, all of which should provide support to margins in the coming quarters. Even if full-year growth ends up flat, the trajectory is moving in the right direction, with an improved mix and more visibility on the pipeline compared to earlier in the year.
Infotel appears to be regaining its footing after a period of underperformance relative to peers. With software now representing a larger slice of the business and sector demand showing tentative signs of recovery, the company is better positioned for a return to growth.
Its cash-rich balance sheet provides both resilience and optionality, whether for investment or strategic moves, while the ongoing sector rebalancing reduces the gap between Infotel and its competitors. Though not immune to the macro headwinds affecting IT services, the group’s combination of financial strength, improving momentum, and exposure to structurally attractive clients suggests the worst is likely behind it.
It will be important to watch whether the incremental recovery in H2 can build into something more durable in 2026.
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