Fashion, payment providers and gas turbines
Moncler, Telecom Italia, Adyen, EssilorLuxottica, Flow Traders, Delivery Hero, Thyssenkrupp, Ceconomy, Siemens Energy, United Internet and Safran
Moncler (MONC) Strong finish to 2024, Asia leads the way
Moncler wrapped up 2024 with a much stronger-than-expected performance, proving once again that demand for high-end outerwear, particularly in Asia, remains robust. Sales hit €3.1bn, and operating profit surpassed expectations at €916m, thanks to an impressive fourth quarter. Growth at Moncler itself rebounded to +8% in constant currency terms, while Stone Island also turned positive at +10%. Wholesale sales were still down but showed some improvement, while DTC sales jumped by 9%, marking a strong sequential acceleration.
Margins remained resilient, with full-year EBIT at 29.5%, only slightly below the previous year’s 30%. This is a solid outcome, given increased spending on marketing (up 15% y-o-y) and a challenging macroeconomic environment. The company ended the year with a net cash position of €1.3bn and announced a dividend increase, raising its payout ratio from 50% to 55%.
Asia was really strong, where Moncler saw a sharp recovery in Q4, with sales up 11% compared to a 2% decline in Q3. The Americas also bounced back with a 5% increase, while Europe grew at a slower but still positive 3%. Chinese customers drove strong double-digit growth, proving that demand in this crucial market remains intact despite broader economic concerns. Moncler’s heavy investment in marketing and store expansion continues to pay off, helping it maintain a dominant position in luxury winter wear.
Moncler remains cautious given tougher comparisons in Q1 2025, particularly in Asia. However, early signs for January were encouraging. The group is targeting a 5% increase in selling space, with a focus on optimizing store locations and expanding in the Americas. Pricing will also play a role, with a planned 5% price increase in 2025.
Overall, Moncler is positioned well for continued long-term growth, even if the near-term outlook remains a bit measured.
Telecom Italia (TIT) A surprising turnaround with cash to back it up
Telecom Italia has spent years in the trenches, struggling with debt, customer losses, and intense competition. But now, it’s showing signs of a real turnaround—thanks to a major focus on free cash flow. The company’s new guidance for 2025 took the market by surprise, with expectations for significantly higher cash flow than previously thought. Instead of barely scraping by, TIM now sees itself generating enough cash to start paying dividends again in 2026—something investors haven’t heard in years.
That’s not to say everything is perfect. TIM is still losing broadband and mobile customers at a steady pace, and its enterprise segment, once a growth engine, has started to slow.
But the bigger picture is improving. The Brazilian business continues to perform well, helped by customers upgrading to higher-value contracts. Meanwhile, a tighter grip on costs, along with better-than-expected cash flow, is helping TIM get its financial house in order.
Perhaps the most important shift is that TIM is now in a position to make meaningful cuts to its debt while keeping spending under control. This isn’t a flashy growth story, but for a company that has been struggling for so long, just stabilizing the business and building cash reserves is a big deal.
The road ahead still has challenges, but with a clearer path to profitability and the potential for industry consolidation, TIM is finally giving investors a reason to pay attention.
Adyen (ADYEN) Steady growth and a solid outlook
Adyen wrapped up 2024 with revenue growth that slightly exceeded expectations, finishing the year with a 23% increase in net revenue. The second half of the year also saw stronger-than-expected profits, thanks to both higher revenue and lower costs. With the company reaffirming its guidance for 2025—expecting revenue growth of at least 23%—investors can breathe easy knowing that momentum remains intact.
One key highlight was the company’s ability to keep costs under control. Despite ramping up hiring in previous years, operating expenses in the second half were lower than anticipated.
Meanwhile, the take rate—the percentage of transactions Adyen captures as revenue—continued to rise as the company moved away from lower-margin clients like CashApp. This signals a more profitable mix of business going forward.
Adyen expects an acceleration in its growth rate in 2025, though the pace of improvement remains measured. The wave of hiring from two years ago is finally starting to bear fruit, contributing to the top line. While consensus estimates are calling for 25% revenue growth next year, Adyen’s own guidance aligns closely with that, keeping expectations well managed.
With strong execution and a disciplined cost approach, Adyen continues to deliver steady and predictable performance.
EssilorLuxottica (EL) A strong finish with digital eyewear gaining momentum
EssilorLuxottica wrapped up 2024 on a high note, with Q4 growth coming in stronger than expected and profitability improving in the second half of the year. The eyewear giant saw organic revenue growth surpass 5% in the final quarter, reflecting a notable rebound in North America, particularly in sunglasses, and continued strength in Europe. Meanwhile, its EBIT margin saw a year-over-year improvement in the second half, further solidifying the company’s ability to navigate an uncertain market.
A major storyline is the rapid adoption of Ray-Ban Meta smart glasses. With over 2 million units sold by the end of 2024, the company appears to be ramping up production at an impressive pace. The next-generation models will feature more advanced technology, including services-based functionality and photochromic lenses, which should contribute to margin expansion over time.
EssilorLuxottica is betting big on this segment, targeting an annual production capacity of 10 million units by 2026—an ambitious goal that reflects confidence in the product’s long-term potential.
Flow Traders (FLOW) A blowout quarter with strong trading performance
Flow Traders ended 2024 strong, delivering a stellar set of Q4 results that smashed expectations across the board. The standout was net trading income (NTI), which surged 29% above consensus, largely driven by an outstanding performance in the Asia-Pacific region. APAC was the real bright spot, more than doubling expectations thanks to favorable market conditions spurred by fiscal stimulus in the region. Europe also had a solid quarter, while the U.S. was slightly weaker.
What really stood out was Flow Traders’ ability to translate this strong top-line growth into even better profitability. The company’s EBITDA margin expanded significantly to 51.6%, showing clear operating leverage. Net profit also soared ~65% ahead of estimates, demonstrating that the firm’s cost discipline and efficiency are paying off.
For 2025, Flow is guiding for a roughly 12% increase in operating expenses, largely to fund investments in technology and selective hiring. While cost growth is notable, the firm’s ability to deliver high returns on trading capital—69% in Q4 versus 49% in 2023—suggests that Flow is maintaining strong profitability even as it scales.
The company’s strong profits fueling further capital growth remains firmly in place, setting the stage for continued momentum.
Delivery Hero (DHER) MENA strength helps push Q4 above expectations
Delivery Hero wrapped up 2024 with a strong finish, posting Q4 results that outpaced expectations, thanks largely to a standout performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). The company saw its gross merchandise volume (GMV) rise 16% year-over-year, beating forecasts by 4%, with MENA delivering an impressive 42% growth. Meanwhile, Europe posted steady gains, while Asia and the Americas faced challenges, particularly in markets affected by hyperinflation.
On the profitability side, adjusted EBITDA for the full year is now expected to come in slightly ahead of consensus at €750 million, thanks to stronger-than-expected margins in MENA.
Looking into this year, the company is guiding for GMV growth of 8-10% and revenue growth of 17-19%, broadly in line with expectations. However, free cash flow guidance came in a bit lower than anticipated, which may temper some of the enthusiasm.
One of the key takeaways from this update was Delivery Hero’s plan to repurchase approximately €1 billion of convertible bonds, financed through proceeds from the upcoming Talabat IPO. This signals confidence in its financial position and a commitment to managing its capital efficiently.
Despite the strong quarter, Delivery Hero’s 2025 profit outlook remains largely in line with market expectations, which means we’re unlikely to see major earnings revisions.
That said, given the stock’s recent pullback, these results should provide a near-term boost. But trading at ~11x forward EV/EBITDA versus a historical average of 12x suggests limited upside at current levels.
Thyssenkrupp (TKA) A mixed start but cash flow shows signs of strength
Thyssenkrupp’s first quarter of 2024-25 was a bit of a mixed bag. On one hand, revenue came in weaker than expected, dragged down by a sluggish performance in the Automotive Technology segment. Sales fell 4% year-over-year to €7.8 billion, missing both company and market expectations. On the other hand, profitability was a bright spot, with adjusted EBIT more than doubling to €191 million, well ahead of forecasts. This improvement was helped by a one-off compensation for electricity prices in the Steel Europe division, but even without that boost, margins showed solid improvement.
One of the more encouraging aspects of the report was free cash flow. While still negative, it improved significantly compared to the same period last year, coming in at just -€21 million versus -€531 million previously. This beat market expectations and suggests that Thyssenkrupp is making progress in shoring up its finances, even if top-line growth remains a challenge.
In response to the soft start to the year, the company cut its full-year sales guidance, now expecting a slight decline instead of modest growth. However, it stuck to its earnings target and even raised its free cash flow outlook, reflecting confidence in its ability to improve efficiency and manage costs.
The persistent struggles in the automotive segment remain a concern, but potential progress on portfolio measures—such as developments in the submarine (TKMS) and steel (SE) businesses—could provide catalysts for the stock.
Ceconomy (CEC) Strong holiday quarter, but growth expected to cool off
Ceconomy, the parent company of MediaMarkt and Saturn, delivered an impressive first-quarter performance, benefiting from strong holiday sales and promotional events like Black Friday and Cyber Week. Like-for-like sales rose 8% year-over-year to €7.57 billion, coming in comfortably ahead of market expectations.
Growth was broad-based across all regions, with standout performances in Eastern Europe (+27%) and strong gains in Germany, Spain, Austria, and Italy. The online segment grew 16%, while Service & Solutions surged 23%, showing positive diversification beyond traditional retail.
However, the strong sales push came at a cost. The gross margin declined slightly due to a heavier mix of promotional sales, but this was offset by better cost control, leading to a slight improvement in the EBIT margin. Adjusted EBIT of €279 million was just shy of market expectations, but free cash flow was solid at €1.5 billion, reflecting disciplined working capital management.
Management signaled confidence in its outlook for the rest of the year but noted that Q1 was somewhat exceptional due to the promotional-heavy nature of the quarter. Growth is expected to normalize going forward, which could lead to a slowdown in sales momentum but with an improving margin profile. The company confirmed its full-year outlook, expecting moderate sales growth and a clear increase in adjusted EBIT compared to last year.
One of the key themes from the call was Ceconomy’s ability to gain market share in Germany, which is a positive sign amid a highly competitive retail environment. However, challenges remain in Switzerland and Poland, where market conditions are proving tougher.
Siemens Energy (ENR) Strong order backlog, though caution still in the air
Siemens Energy’s Q1 results came as no real surprise, as they were in line with the preliminary figures published in January. That being said, there were some notable takeaways that highlight both the company’s strengths and ongoing challenges.
On the positive side, the company’s backlog has swelled to a record €131 billion, which already secures two-thirds of expected 2026 sales. A big chunk of that—48%—is made up of long-term service contracts, extending over 10 years, which should provide stability and predictable cash flow. Prices across all divisions are trending higher, including in the problematic offshore wind segment, which is a sign that the group’s strategy is starting to gain traction.
Gas remains a hot area, with 20 GW of projects already lined up, expected to convert into firm orders in 2025 and 2026. In Q1 alone, Siemens Energy received 24 gas turbine orders, with the US and the Middle East leading demand. The gas services division saw a particularly strong quarter, with services accounting for 73% of sales, significantly boosting margins (which improved to 14.6%). Meanwhile, the offshore wind segment seems to be stabilizing, with 20 GW of tenders expected in 2025—a much-needed positive sign for Siemens Gamesa.
The biggest surprise from the earnings report was the €1.5 billion in free cash flow (FCF) for Q1, which already exceeds the full-year guidance. This was helped by reservation fees, advance payments, and favorable payment behavior from customers. The company reaffirmed its €2 billion capex plan for the year, but with only €258 million spent in Q1, we’ll see if that gets adjusted later in the year.
Despite these positives, management remains cautious and opted not to revise its guidance just yet, preferring to wait until interim results. While the mix shift towards higher-margin services is helping profitability, visibility remains low regarding onshore quality issues and the cost challenges associated with ramping up offshore operations.
United Internet (UTDI) UI's roller coaster with 1&1
United Internet and their subsidiary, 1&1 - it seems like things haven't exactly gone as planned. For 2024, 1&1 revenues were down by 10%, a surprise as they had been telling they'd hit a certain target, thanks to a refund from a network supplier, Rakuten. But it appears that refund never showed up.
In the last quarter of 2024, 1&1 saw a slight dip in revenues, mainly because their hardware sales were sluggish. Plus, rolling out the 5G network cost them a quite a bit, pushing their profits down by 11%. On the bright side, they managed to catch 60,000 new mobile contracts, which is an improvement after the previous network hiccup.
Despite these ups and downs, there's still hope for the future—though no 2025 guidance yet. There's potential for things to turn around if they can nail the 5G rollout, but the market's getting pretty cutthroat.
As for United Internet, they're also feeling the pinch from 1&1's hiccups. Their 2024 revenues didn't quite hit the expected marks, thanks mainly to the same issues plaguing 1&1. If 1&1 can get their 5G act together, there might be some long-term gains to look forward to.
Safran (SAF) Going strong
Safran had quite a decent run in 2024, showing some impressive growth despite a few minor hiccups.
Now, while the numbers were slightly below some analyst projections, Safran managed to present stronger-than-expected performance in their free cash flow. This was a pleasant surprise for many, given the pressures they faced with inventory and deferred income. It all boiled down to a positive net cash position, which is always a good sign.
One of the standout stories from Safran's 2024 performance was their propulsion segment. They saw a significant boost, mainly thanks to a surge in the civil aftermarket and military services. Helicopter services also chipped in, contributing to the healthy margin they’ve maintained.
For 2025, Safran has put forth a cautiously optimistic outlook. They've slightly raised their guidance for both adjusted EBIT and free cash flow. This shows they're feeling confident about the coming year, though they're still playing their cards close to the chest. The upgrade was partly driven by expected growth in spare parts, which ties into some optimistic comments from their partners at GE.
One exciting tidbit is the expected down payment from the Rafale Indian navy order, which could bolster their cash flow even further. This potential deal is on everyone's radar, though Safran hasn't made any official comments just yet.
Safran’s strategic vision includes plans to double their Leap engine base by 2030, which is quite ambitious. They’re banking on this expansion to drive future growth, especially since a significant portion of their CFM56 engines haven't even had their first shop visit yet.
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