Cruises, chips and profit warnings
TUI, Savencia, Guerbet, Answear.com, HDF Energy, Salzgitter, Altamir, Figeac Aero, Aena, Ströer, ASM International, Genfit, OSE Immunotherapeutics, Porsche
At Lux Opes, we break down the latest company news into quick takes that get straight to the point—what happened, why it matters, and what to watch next.
We publish 2-4 times per week, depending on the news flow.
TUI AG (TUI1 Germany): stable summer season with a promising start to winter
TUI’s update confirmed a summer season that broadly matched market expectations and a winter booking curve that looks encouraging, even if it is still early.
Summer volumes were slightly lower year on year, reflecting weakness in Germany, though higher prices helped offset much of the impact. The UK remained resilient, and popular destinations such as Greece, Türkiye and the Canaries continued to draw steady demand.
For the upcoming winter season, booking levels are up modestly with supportive pricing trends, giving management confidence that momentum is carrying into the next financial year.
The company’s Holiday Experiences division continues to be an important growth driver, with both hotels and cruises posting expansion in capacity and improving metrics. The launch of a new ship earlier this year has lifted cruise occupancy, while hotel pricing has strengthened in line with demand. These dynamics support the broader strategy of diversifying TUI’s revenue streams beyond its core airline and packaged travel operations, a shift that also helps balance seasonal swings in performance.
Management reiterated guidance for the year, with EBIT expected to grow close to double digits and revenues landing within the guided range.
The bigger story here is one of gradual normalization in leisure travel combined with TUI’s efforts to reshape its business mix. The company is pushing further into dynamic packaging and airline growth, while strengthening its balance sheet after several years of financial repair.
With leisure demand in Europe still holding up and cruises adding a layer of structural growth, TUI is positioning itself for a more balanced and resilient model. The path remains heavily weighted toward execution in the second half, but the tone of this update suggests a steady recovery remains intact.
Savencia (SAVE France): resilient top line but profitability squeezed
Savencia’s results highlighted the challenges of managing through cost inflation, even as sales held up. Revenue came in flat overall but showed healthier organic growth than expected, thanks to a better performance in cheese products and strong momentum in specialty ingredients. Pricing helped offset weaker volumes in Europe, while the recovery in the second quarter underscored underlying demand resilience. Still, profitability fell short, with higher milk costs and negative currency impacts proving difficult to absorb. Exceptional restructuring charges weighed further on the bottom line, leaving net income sharply lower.
The company also unveiled a strategic move that could redefine its positioning in premium foodservice. Management is exploring a potential merger with Savencia Gourmet, a sister entity best known for the Valrhona chocolate brand. By combining Valrhona with existing assets such as Elle & Vire, the group aims to accelerate its ambitions in high-end foodservice, targeting a global leadership position in supplying gastronomy professionals.
The review is expected to conclude in early 2026, and if approved, it would mark a significant step in diversifying Savencia’s profile beyond dairy staples.
The story for now is one of mixed momentum. On the one hand, the core dairy operations remain pressured by cost inflation and currency headwinds, limiting near-term profitability. On the other, the proposed merger could unlock new growth areas and elevate Savencia’s strategic standing in premium segments.
Until then, results are likely to remain under strain, with management’s credibility resting on its ability to manage costs while pursuing longer-term transformation.
Guerbet (GBT France): leadership change signals a reset after profit warning
Guerbet’s leadership shake-up followed swiftly after its latest profit warning, with long-serving CFO Jérôme Estampes stepping in as interim CEO. His appointment provides continuity and deep knowledge of the group’s challenges, but it also highlights the urgency of resetting strategy after several years of underwhelming performance. Outgoing CEO David Hale oversaw efforts to reposition the portfolio and accelerate digital initiatives, yet margin recovery and cash generation lagged expectations. The board is now beginning the process of recruiting a permanent successor, a step that may reshape Guerbet’s direction.
The challenges are well known: weaker trends in France, a customer mix skewed toward distributors in the U.S., and operational setbacks that compounded financial strain. The contrast agent business, centred on products like Elucirem and Dotarem, remains the core, but the company must prove that it can generate sustainable profitability in the face of regulatory pressure and intensifying competition. Transformation will also require extracting efficiencies from its industrial and commercial infrastructure, all while demonstrating progress in innovation areas such as AI-driven imaging.
For investors, the CEO change may eventually act as a catalyst, but timing remains uncertain. Leadership transitions often bring fresh strategies, yet in the short term the focus is on stabilisation. The H1 results will give management a platform to update stakeholders, though a detailed roadmap will take longer to materialise.
Speculation about potential tie-ups in the sector could resurface, but for now Guerbet is in reset mode, balancing operational challenges with the search for renewed credibility.
Answear.com (ANR Poland): profitability gains show strategy starting to deliver
Answear.com’s Q2 results marked a step forward in profitability, building on the improvement seen earlier this year. The company posted its first meaningful profit in some time, with EBITDA swinging sharply into positive territory and beating market expectations. The driver was not only stronger revenue but also better cost control, with logistics costs easing as the premiumisation strategy took hold and marketing expenses declining as a share of sales. The premium PRM brand, acquired two years ago, continued to expand at a brisk pace, underlining management’s focus on higher-margin segments.
Operational metrics also pointed to underlying progress. The customer base expanded by nearly a fifth, supported by higher site traffic and improved conversion rates, while average order value continued to rise. Orders grew solidly, though returns ticked higher year on year. Inventory build-up weighed somewhat on cash conversion, showing that growth still carries working capital pressure, but overall momentum remains constructive.
These trends suggest that the shift toward a more premium mix is starting to pay off, both in customer engagement and in the bottom line.
Looking ahead, management’s incentive programme sets ambitious EBITDA targets through 2027, and the first half performance leaves the company on track for this year’s goal. While absolute earnings remain small in scale, the pace of improvement is encouraging and signals a business model gradually gaining operating leverage.
For now, the story remains centered on steady execution, with profitability and brand mix becoming increasingly central to Answear’s growth profile.
HDF Energy (HDF France): delays highlight challenges in hydrogen rollout
HDF Energy’s half-year update reinforced the difficulties facing hydrogen developers in today’s market. Revenues remained negligible, generated mainly from project management services, while losses widened modestly as costs crept higher and currency effects added pressure. Cash reserves declined again, reflecting steady burn as projects move slowly forward.
The company highlighted progress on its flagship CEOG project in French Guiana, which remains on schedule for mid-2026, but otherwise offered little new visibility on its commercial pipeline.
The broader challenge lies in the weak economics of hydrogen at present. Rising personnel and depreciation costs are proving hard to offset, while the political and regulatory backdrop in France has disrupted the launch of its planned fuel cell production unit.
Most critically, management again postponed medium-term revenue targets, once more pushing back the €100 million milestone originally set for 2025. Investors are left with no updated timeline, underscoring how fragile growth projections remain.
For now, HDF is keeping its head above water through cost discipline and selective project work, but the market context remains unfavourable.
Without greater policy clarity or improved project economics, the company is unlikely to deliver on its earlier ambitions in the near term. The narrative remains one of long-term promise weighed down by short-term uncertainty, leaving the business in a holding pattern until external conditions shift.
Salzgitter (SZG Germany): decarbonisation plans pushed back amid tough conditions
Salzgitter’s decision to delay the next phases of its Salcos decarbonisation programme reflects the stark realities of the steel market.
While phase one is moving ahead, with significant investment in electric arc furnaces and direct reduction capacity, the group has deferred subsequent stages by at least two years. Management cited deteriorating economic conditions, high energy costs, and the absence of regulatory support as reasons for the pause. The revised timeline stretches full completion into the 2030s, with the goal of cutting emissions by 95% still intact but further into the future.
The decision comes against a backdrop of weakening steel demand, especially in automotive and construction, while imports continue to surge. At the same time, customers show little appetite for paying a premium for green steel, undermining the business case for rapid investment. Energy costs in Europe remain structurally higher than in other regions, compounding the pressure.
Salzgitter’s move is therefore not an outlier—peers such as ArcelorMittal have also frozen or delayed projects, highlighting the sector-wide tension between decarbonisation goals and economic reality.
In this light, the postponement looks pragmatic, preserving cash and avoiding the need for drastic financing measures at a time when leverage is already set to rise. It also relieves pressure to dispose of non-core assets, giving the group more breathing room. Yet the deferral underscores the challenges of transitioning Europe’s steel sector without stronger policy backing.
For now, Salzgitter continues to advance its first phase, but the delay in later stages is a reminder that ambition in green steel must be matched by economic viability and political support.
Altamir (LTA France): tender offer provides clarity for investors
Altamir’s half-year results painted the picture of a private equity vehicle holding steady despite market headwinds. Net asset value per share was essentially flat compared with year-end, with small declines offset by value creation within the portfolio. Companies in the technology, telecom, and services sectors provided much of the resilience, particularly through operational progress and some multiple expansion.
While currency fluctuations and operating expenses weighed on NAV, the group’s core holdings continued to demonstrate durability, and disposals were matched by reinvestment into new opportunities. The rotation of assets remained disciplined, with investments in both fresh names and add-ons for existing portfolio companies.
The real shift, however, lies in the corporate structure rather than in portfolio activity. Amboise SAS, alongside aligned shareholders, has launched a public tender offer that effectively gives investors an immediate choice: accept liquidity at a premium to the market price, or remain invested in a vehicle already largely controlled by its parent.
With more than three-quarters of the capital already in friendly hands, the offer is unlikely to be contested, but it is not structured as a squeeze-out. That makes the situation unusual: a genuine liquidity window for investors who often face limited exit options in listed private equity.
For Altamir, the timing is significant. The company continues to aim for a steady rhythm of investments and exits each year, but public investors have often been frustrated by the persistent discount to NAV. With this offer, that discount is effectively crystallised, giving minority holders a clear exit strategy.
For those willing to stay, the portfolio retains the same long-term potential, but with control consolidated, influence over strategy will increasingly sit with the majority shareholder. The tender therefore reshapes the investment case: less about future NAV growth, more about whether investors want to accept certainty today or remain on board for a longer horizon under tighter control.
Figeac Aero (FGA France): contract renewal with Safran strengthens growth outlook
Figeac Aero’s announcement of renewed and extended contracts with Safran marks a pivotal moment for the aerospace supplier. These agreements, running until 2030, secure business worth more than €15 million annually and reinforce a partnership that already accounts for a fifth of group sales. The contracts cover critical Leap engine components, including high-performance titanium and inconel parts, underscoring Figeac’s capability in complex manufacturing.
At a time when airlines and engine makers are gearing up production to meet surging demand, this renewal provides both stability and growth visibility for the company.
The benefits extend beyond guaranteed volumes. Safran’s confidence in Figeac is reflected in financial support that eases the burden of capacity expansion, including advances for production ramp-up and help with site financing. Such backing not only strengthens liquidity but also speaks to the strategic importance of Figeac in Safran’s supply chain. In addition, the type of parts being produced should prove margin-accretive, given their technical complexity and the company’s demonstrated ability to deliver quality at scale.
The relationship is not simply transactional; it has become symbiotic, with both sides invested in each other’s success.
The growth potential tied to Safran is substantial. Leap engine production is expected to accelerate by nearly half over the next few years, and Figeac is well positioned to capture that upswing. Other contracts in engines and nacelles further broaden the base, while diversification across geographies supports resilience.
For investors, the renewal signals that Figeac is moving beyond recovery mode and into a phase of sustained expansion, anchored by deepening ties with one of the industry’s leaders. The story is increasingly one of a supplier elevating itself into a position of critical long-term relevance in the aerospace ecosystem.
Aena (AENA Spain): ambitious capex plan reshapes regulatory outlook
Aena’s unveiling of its investment programme for 2027–2031 represents a landmark moment for the European airport sector. The company plans nearly €13 billion of spending, half again as much as consensus expected, with the majority eligible for inclusion in the regulated asset base.
This signals a decisive step-change in ambition, focused on expanding capacity at airports already nearing their limits, improving passenger experience, and accelerating sustainability and technology investments.
The regulatory framework will now take centre stage. Spain’s model, based on remuneration per passenger, has historically allowed Aena to outperform theoretical returns, giving it more flexibility than most European peers. Negotiations with airlines and regulators will determine the allowed return, traffic assumptions, and tariff path, which in turn will shape profitability. While tariffs may decline, this is not necessarily negative, as the uplift in regulated assets could drive earnings growth over time.
Importantly, Aena enters this cycle with a pristine balance sheet, low leverage, and a dividend policy tied to net income, giving confidence that shareholder distributions and credit ratings will not be compromised despite the heavy investment.
Strategically, the plan positions Aena to maintain its leadership in global aviation infrastructure. By coupling capacity expansion with sustainability and digital upgrades, the company is aligning itself with structural growth drivers in air travel.
Investors will need to track the regulatory negotiations carefully, but the fundamentals remain compelling: a business with strong financial foundations, a favourable framework, and the ability to turn large-scale investment into long-term value creation. The capex wave is not without risk, but it defines Aena’s future trajectory and cements its role as a central player in European infrastructure.
Ströer SE (SAX Germany): caution creeps into outlook but longer-term story still in play
Ströer’s latest update struck a more cautious tone than investors had hoped for, with management reining in expectations for the year; instead of guiding for growth, the company now expects recurring EBITDA to hold broadly flat. The move was prompted by a weaker advertising environment, a theme that has been hanging over the German media sector since ProSiebenSat.1 issued its own warning.
That said, Ströer’s caution seems more about tone than substance: the group still expects modest growth in the third quarter, and the prospect of sequential improvement into year-end remains possible. With visibility poor, the company has chosen to err on the side of prudence, but the signals from peers suggest the fourth quarter could end up steadier than feared.
While investors are bracing for softness, Ströer’s core out-of-home business retains resilience, helped by easier comparatives into year-end. Management is cutting guidance conservatively, but the structural advantages of the business remain intact. The shift from traditional to digital formats continues, underpinning better pricing power, and the scale of Ströer’s German network gives it leverage in discussions with advertisers.
Beyond 2025, the company’s other divisions remain steady, leaving the bigger question around how much short-term caution should actually influence the long-term story. The reset thus looks less about fundamental weakness and more about poor visibility at a cyclical low point.
The more interesting angle now lies in the group’s structure. Ströer’s depressed share price has fuelled speculation that asset disposals—or even a broader change of ownership—could emerge. Funds have shown interest in the out-of-home business, and given the stock’s slide, the idea of private capital combining forces with founding shareholders to take the group private is not unthinkable.
Against this backdrop, the lowered expectations may serve more as a clearing event than a new downcycle. The medium-term structural story of consolidation, digitalisation, and possible strategic moves still hangs over Ströer, even as the near-term narrative looks subdued.
ASM International (ASM Netherlands): quiet before CMD as long-term growth takes center stage
ASM International heads into its Capital Markets Day with uncharacteristic discretion. Management has revealed almost nothing about the agenda, a stark contrast to past events where expectations were carefully managed in advance. By keeping things muted, ASMi is lowering the bar ahead of announcements that are widely expected to reconfirm its structural growth story.
The timing is interesting: despite a sector rebound led by stronger news from major foundries like TSMC and Samsung, ASMi’s stock still lags its peers this year. That disconnect leaves the CMD with a clear role—to remind investors why this company continues to outgrow the industry despite cyclical softness.
The company’s track record gives reason for confidence. Despite export restrictions and sluggish demand outside AI-related nodes, ASMi has steadily delivered on the milestones laid out at its last CMD. Revenue is still on track for double-digit growth in 2025, in line with targets, and the product mix is shifting in its favour as spending tilts toward atomic layer deposition and epitaxy tools.
With the transition to advanced nodes accelerating and the first wave of Gate-All-Around adoption now visible, ASMi is positioned to expand its share in the most attractive parts of the wafer fab equipment market. This is where it has carved out a leadership position and where growth should remain more robust than the broader sector.
The CMD is expected to outline new targets stretching to 2030, anchoring a vision of steady double-digit growth supported by technology transitions that extend well beyond the current cycle.
Even as management is likely to remain cautious on China and on analog/power recovery, investors should hear more about opportunities in vertical channel devices and metallisation technologies that could expand the company’s addressable market.
In a sector prone to short-term swings, ASMi’s ability to keep compounding through structural drivers is what stands out. If past is prologue, the upcoming CMD will not be about dazzling new promises but about demonstrating how a company that already leads in niche markets is preparing to extend that lead into the next decade.
Genfit (GNFT France): pipeline reshaped as visibility extends into the next decade
Genfit’s half-year results were overshadowed by the decision to discontinue its VS-01 programme, a move that was not entirely unexpected but still drew attention. While the setback removes one of the company’s development strands, it also lowers expenditure and paradoxically strengthens financial visibility.
Cash now stretches beyond 2028, thanks in part to milestone payments from Ipsen and royalty financing. The company ended June with a solid position and, importantly, with reduced pressure to raise funds in the medium term. In biotech, that kind of runway is strategic currency, giving management breathing room to advance the rest of the pipeline.
The pipeline itself now looks more focused. The lead asset G1090N is on track for early safety and efficacy data by year-end, with proof-of-concept studies lined up for 2026. GNS561, targeting cholangiocarcinoma, also has important readouts coming in the next few months. These programs, alongside newer candidates like SRT-015 and CLM-022, define a refreshed portfolio that prioritises areas where Genfit can carve out meaningful clinical differentiation.
While losing VS-01 is a blow, the company is signalling that its future lies in oncology and liver disease programmes where the scientific rationale is clearer and commercial potential more visible.
The near-term test is whether upcoming data can restore confidence in the story. The market reacted negatively to the discontinuation of VS-01, but that could quickly reverse if G1090N and GNS561 deliver encouraging results. Beyond that, Genfit’s extended cash horizon provides the flexibility to progress multiple assets in parallel, a luxury for a mid-cap biotech.
The company now faces the challenge of proving that its rejuvenated portfolio can sustain value creation, but it does so from a position of relative financial strength. For a sector often defined by funding risk, that combination—capital in hand and multiple shots on goal—remains compelling if the science holds up.
OSE Immunotherapeutics (OSE France): strategy and governance collide ahead of decisive AGM
OSE Immunotherapeutics came out with an update to highlight priorities and calm the waters before what promises to be a tense annual meeting.
Management reiterated that Tedopi, the cancer immunotherapy in phase III, remains the flagship project with results expected toward the end of the decade. Alongside this, development of lusvertikimab is accelerating with a planned phase IIb trial and work on a subcutaneous formulation, while earlier-stage assets continue in preclinical research with the intent of striking partnerships at a later stage.
It was no coincidence that management chose this moment to remind investors of its roadmap: the AGM later this month will pit the current leadership against a group of founding shareholders seeking to reshape the company’s future.
The shareholder dispute has exposed deep fractures. Founders who together control a meaningful voting block argue that management’s strategy is too risky, particularly around financing, and that development plans lack clarity. They have proposed sweeping changes, including the replacement of a majority of board members. With the dissidents holding nearly a quarter of the voting rights, the outcome is far from guaranteed. At stake are not only strategic choices but also the credibility of management in steering OSE through an intensely competitive biotech landscape. The debate also focuses on financing tools, with resolutions on authorising new debt drawing fire from critics wary of overburdening shareholders.
Beyond governance, the real issue remains how OSE will fund its ambitions. Developing lusvertikimab in ulcerative colitis alone could require hundreds of millions of euros, far beyond the company’s current market value. Management’s estimate of €60 million for a phase IIb trial appears reasonable, but the sheer scale of later stages illustrates the gap between resources and aspirations.
Without a partnership in the near term, the burden on OSE is heavy, and time is pressing as rival therapies advance. The AGM will therefore not only be a test of loyalties but also a measure of whether OSE can convince investors it has a credible plan to finance growth.
Even if the leadership holds, pressure on the share price is likely to persist until clarity emerges on how strategy, governance, and funding align.
Porsche (P911): and another profit warning
Porsche dropped a bit of a bombshell late last Friday, sending out an announcement about a major shake-up in its product strategy. The company is hitting pause on some of its electric vehicle plans and extending the life of its internal combustion engine platforms.
This shift is going to cost them—a lot; up to €1.8 billion in write-downs and provisions in 2025 alone. As a consequence, the company had to lower their profit expectations yet again. Instead of aiming for a return on sales of 5% to 7%, Porsche now says it might only hit ‘up to 2%.’ A painful and huge cut.
Porsche will also be scaling back its longer-term profitability targets. They’re now projecting ‘double-digit’ operating margins at best, but only hitting up to 15% in favorable conditions. This is a far cry from the lofty 20% margins talked about during their IPO days, dragged down by a strong combination of challenges: a struggling market in China, slower EV adoption than expected, and ongoing tariff issues in the U.S.
For investors, this is yet another letdown in what’s been a tough year for Porsche—the third profit warning within a year. It also highlights the risks and costs tied to this dramatic overhaul of their product plans. Delays and setbacks have been piling up, and execution risk seems to be the name of the game. There’s a lot riding on this strategy shift, with many skeptical about whether it’ll pay off.
Porsche’s 2025 free cash flow is now expected to be on the lower end of their guidance range. The provisions tied to these changes are going to put pressure on their cash flow for years to come, leading to strong adjustments to market estimates for the next years.
While there’s some acknowledgment that Porsche’s restructuring efforts might eventually clear the way for a leaner operation, it’s hard to ignore the risks that still loom. Whether it’s tariffs or the ability to deliver on these ambitious plans, the road ahead looks bumpy. For now, caution might remain the best strategy.
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