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Ferrari, Vodafone, Siltronic, Melexis, Infineon, Dassault Systèmes, Diageo, Assa Abloy, Tonies and Formycon
Ferrari (RACE) Strong quarter and positive outlook
Ferrari’s latest earnings report brought some welcome reassurance to investors, as the company once again outperformed expectations.
Fourth-quarter earnings came in stronger than anticipated, with EBIT up 8 percent and earnings per share beating estimates by 14 percent. Sales were also higher than expected, thanks to strong pricing and continued momentum in the sponsorship and brand divisions. While EBITDA margins were slightly below expectations, the overall report reinforced Ferrari’s ability to maintain its profitability and pricing power.
The company also provided 2025 guidance that is mostly in line with the market, which historically means there’s room for upside. Ferrari’s management tends to be cautious in its forecasts, so there’s a good chance the company will meet or exceed its targets.
Revenue is expected to grow by at least 5 percent, driven by a strong product mix, while EBIT is projected to increase by at least 7 percent. The order book remains strong, with Ferrari confirming that its upcoming F80 supercar is already fully allocated. However, there are some concerns around residual values, especially for hybrid models, which have seen some price erosion in the secondary market.
Even with these minor concerns, Ferrari continues to prove why it’s one of the most resilient names in the luxury automotive world. Its strong pricing power, brand appeal, and controlled production strategy allow it to maintain high margins even in a rising-cost environment.
Vodafone (VOD) Strength in the UK but lingering weakness in Germany
Vodafone’s latest update showed some encouraging signs, but also confirmed that its challenges in Germany are far from over.
Revenue for the third quarter of 2025 rose 5 percent year-over-year, slightly above expectations. EBITDA was also better than expected, increasing by 1 percent and beating consensus estimates by about 3 percent. The company benefited from solid service revenue growth and lower energy costs across Europe, which helped offset some of the weaker areas of the business.
The UK stood out as a bright spot, with service revenue up 3.3 percent year-over-year, mainly due to price increases. Greece also continued to perform well, with 7.3 percent growth. On the commercial side, Vodafone added 840,000 new mobile customers and 106,000 new broadband subscribers, showing some improvement in subscriber trends. Even in Germany, where the company has struggled, the loss of TV subscribers—66,000 in the quarter—was far smaller than the huge drop seen in the previous quarter.
That said, Germany remains a problem. Organic revenue there declined 6.4 percent, slightly worse than last quarter, and the business market is also losing momentum. Vodafone has warned that EBITDA in Germany will be lower in the second half of the year, as the mobile market remains tough. With Germany being such a big part of Vodafone’s business, this continued weakness is keeping investors cautious.
Vodafone has reaffirmed its full-year targets, expecting 11 billion euros in adjusted EBITDA and at least 2.4 billion euros in free cash flow. Share buybacks are continuing as planned, with another 500 million euros being launched, bringing the total to 1.5 billion since May 2024.
While there are positive signs in the UK and Africa, investors are likely to remain cautious until the German business shows real improvement.
Siltronic (WAF) Recovery delayed again as inventory issues persist
Siltronic’s latest update wasn’t what investors had hoped for. The company’s guidance for 2025 was disappointing, with excess inventory at clients continuing to weigh on demand. The recovery that many were expecting seems to be taking longer than anticipated. As a result, Siltronic now expects revenue to stay roughly flat in 2025 at around 1.4 billion euros, which is lower than the market consensus of 1.5 billion euros.
They also noted that the first half of the year will likely be weaker than the second, as some clients are pushing back orders. On top of that, Siltronic will stop producing 150mm wafers by mid-year, which could have a small negative impact on sales.
Adding to the concerns, Siltronic has now pushed back its long-term targets for reaching 2.2 billion euros in revenue and an EBITDA margin in the high 30s. Originally expected by 2028, these goals are now further out, though Siltronic hasn’t given a clear new timeline. This wasn’t a complete surprise to analysts, who had already adjusted expectations for those targets to be met closer to 2030.
While the short-term visibility remains poor, the long-term potential is still intact. Demand for semiconductors is expected to grow, and once excess wafer stock clears, Siltronic should benefit from expansion plans by key clients like Micron and TSMC.
For now, though, investors will have to remain patient.
Melexis (MELE) Weak, but could a recovery be near?
Melexis reported a disappointing set of fourth-quarter results, with both revenue and profit missing expectations.
The company has been working closely with its automotive customers to help them reduce their excess inventory, and that process is proving to be more painful than expected. Revenue came in at 197 million euros, lower than the expected 205 million euros, and down 21 percent year-over-year. Gross margins and EBIT also fell short.
The first half of 2025 isn’t shaping up to be much better. Melexis has guided for first-quarter revenue of 190 to 200 million euros, which is below market expectations.
The company has also, unusually, declined to provide full-year guidance, which suggests there’s still a lot of uncertainty about when demand will pick back up. For the first half of the year, Melexis expects revenue of around 400 million euros—again, below expectations. They did say, however, that the second half of the year should be significantly stronger than the first.
Nonetheless, even though the inventory correction has been more severe than expected, Melexis is likely approaching the bottom of this cycle. The company’s valuation has already taken a hit, and while earnings estimates for the year are likely to be cut by 10 to 20 percent, the long-term outlook remains positive.
Once demand stabilizes and growth returns, the stock could see a re-rating. Investors looking for a turnaround story might find an opportunity here, but patience will be required.
Infineon (IFX) Inventory issues ease and AI demand rises
Infineon’s latest results are bringing some much-needed optimism to the semiconductor sector. The company’s first-quarter earnings came in stronger than expected, helped by better-than-expected volumes and a boost from the stronger U.S. dollar. Management also raised its full-year guidance.
Revenue for the quarter was 3.4 billion euros, beating forecasts thanks to currency gains and slightly stronger demand across multiple segments. The company also managed to deliver a gross margin of 41.1 percent, while EBIT came in higher than consensus.
Automotive, a key segment for Infineon, performed slightly better than expected, while Power & Sensor Systems saw an unexpected boost from a one-time customer payment.
Infineon expects revenue to stabilize or slightly increase in 2025, rather than decline as previously thought. The inventory correction that has weighed on the sector is finally easing, with most of the impact expected to be behind the company by mid-year. The strong dollar is another key tailwind, as it helps Infineon’s revenue and profitability.
The company’s AI-related business is also growing faster than expected, with power management chips for NVIDIA’s Blackwell architecture set to contribute 600 million euros in revenue this year, up from previous estimates of 500 million euros. Longer term, Infineon still expects to reach 1 billion euros in AI-related sales by 2027, possibly even earlier. On the automotive side, the company highlighted its diverse customer base, which helps protect it from demand fluctuations at any one automaker.
We believe the stock remains undervalued compared to its long-term potential given growing confidence that Infineon’s AI and automotive businesses can drive sustained growth once inventory issues subside.
Dassault Systèmes (DSY) Solid software growth
Dassault Systèmes posted a solid fourth-quarter performance, with revenue and operating profit largely in line with market expectations.
Total revenue for the quarter came in at 1.75 billion euros, up 7 percent year-over-year, which matched consensus estimates. Software revenue, which is the backbone of Dassault’s business, grew 9 percent at constant currency, driven by strong licensing sales and stable recurring revenue growth. SolidWorks performed well in Asia, while Medidata, the life sciences segment, returned to modest growth of 1 percent, reversing the decline seen in the previous quarter.
For 2025, Dassault is guiding for revenue growth of 6 to 8 percent, which is slightly below previous expectations due to a weaker-than-expected foreign exchange outlook. License revenue is expected to grow by 3 to 5 percent, while recurring software revenue is projected to increase 7 to 9 percent. The operating margin is expected to improve slightly, which should support earnings growth.
Dassault’s actual ambitions might be higher than what they are officially projecting. If currency conditions remain stable, operating profit and earnings could end up slightly higher than expected.
The company remains a strong performer in the software sector, with solid long-term growth prospects.
Diageo (DGE) Results bring relief, but LT uncertainty remains
Diageo’s latest results brought a sigh of relief to investors. After months of concerns about slowing growth and industry-wide challenges, the company managed to return to positive sales momentum. Beer, especially Guinness, played a big role in keeping revenue steady in North America and Europe, while Latin America and Africa also contributed to growth. The only weak spot was Asia, where sales took a hit, but overall, things are looking better than expected.
What really stood out was how well Diageo managed its profitability. Despite rising costs and a tough economic backdrop, the company kept its margins solid, showing that its pricing strategy and product mix are working. Even with all the uncertainty in the market, management made it clear that they are staying disciplined and focused on long-term value.
However, in a sign of caution, they decided to temporarily suspend their mid-term growth targets, citing unpredictable macroeconomic and geopolitical conditions. Given the shaky state of the industry, this move wasn’t too surprising.
The biggest confidence boost came from the dividend. Many investors had feared a cut, but Diageo held firm, keeping payouts steady. That sent a strong message that the company remains financially stable despite the headwinds.
While uncertainty still looms, Diageo has shown it can weather the storm better than many of its peers. Aas demand normalizes and pricing power holds strong, this one could surprise.
Assa Abloy (ASSAB) Growth needs a spark
Assa Abloy wrapped up the year with solid earnings, proving once again that it knows how to manage costs and protect margins even when growth is sluggish. Sales remained flat on an organic basis, but profitability improved thanks to strong execution and efficiency measures. The company has been leaning into operational improvements to offset the fact that demand isn’t picking up as quickly as it would like.
Regionally, the Americas performed well, largely due to strength in the U.S. commercial real estate market, while Europe and the company’s tech-focused security division held steady. The biggest drag was China, where the ongoing real estate slump continued to weigh on sales. That remains one of the biggest question marks for the company moving forward.
Despite the lack of top-line growth, Assa Abloy continues to generate strong cash flow, which allowed it to increase its dividend. That’s always a reassuring sign for investors, as it suggests confidence in the company’s ability to keep delivering steady returns.
Looking ahead, management has made it clear that expanding into emerging markets and shifting more products toward electromechanical security solutions will be key drivers of growth.
The company is well-positioned, but for shares to move higher, it will need to show that demand is picking up—particularly in the commercial real estate sector, which remains a mixed bag.
For now, Assa Abloy is doing everything right, but the real test will be whether it can reignite growth in the coming quarters.
Tonies (TNIE) Growth continues, but sales miss expectations
Tonies is still riding a strong growth wave, but its latest sales numbers fell slightly short of expectations. The company has been expanding aggressively, especially in North America, where brand recognition is improving, and retail presence is growing. Revenue was up a solid 41 percent year-over-year in the fourth quarter.
North America, which now makes up nearly half of Tonies’ sales, saw a 47 percent increase in revenue, but that was weaker than analysts had expected. Europe, on the other hand, performed well, with strong demand in Germany, Austria, and Switzerland, which not only outpaced expectations but also contributed significantly to overall profitability. Expansion into new markets, like Australia and New Zealand, also showed promising results, though those numbers were slightly below forecasts as well.
Despite the revenue miss, the company is proving it can deliver on profitability. Margins are expected to be at the upper end of guidance, and free cash flow is coming in well above estimates.
With continued product innovation and deeper market penetration, Tonies’ long-term growth outlook remains strong. The company is still trading at a reasonable valuation, ~15x ev/ebitda on this year, which could be low if confidence in its ability to scale while improving profitability increases.
Formycon AG (FYB) Expanding its biosimilar reach in APAC
Formycon just secured another major distribution deal for its biosimilar drug FYB203, a cheaper alternative to the blockbuster eye treatment Eylea. In partnership with Klinge Biopharma, the company signed an exclusive licensing agreement with Lotus Pharmaceutical to market the drug across Asia-Pacific. This agreement covers key markets like Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Hong Kong, expanding Formycon’s global footprint.
This move is part of a broader commercialization push for FYB203 following regulatory approvals in both the U.S. and Europe. The drug is already being marketed in Europe and Israel through Teva and in the Middle East and North Africa through MS Pharma, but the U.S. market remains an open question as the company is still searching for a local partner.
Long-term, peak sales could be around 500 million euros by 2028, capturing a meaningful share of what is currently a 5-billion-dollar market. Like most biosimilars, pricing pressure and competition will play a role, but even with those factors, Formycon has strong potential to carve out a significant market position.
The company’s near-term performance will depend on how quickly its products gain traction commercially. A U.S. marketing agreement would be the next big milestone to watch.
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